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The Rookie Evaluation Formula (R.E.F.) is an attempt to solve this problem. It started out as a rookie cheat sheet. Needing a more methodological approach to a rookie draft list than just the good old standard – “the gut method”, I created a formula that would at be as objective as possible. As I developed it, the REF only increased in usefulness and it helped draft several productive young rookies in 2001, notably LaDainian Tomlinson, Chris Chambers and Kendrell Bell. The year previous to that, it helped identify Jamal Lewis’ potential and draft him.

The first challenge was how to evaluate what was important for a rookie? Research eventually boiled it down to four categories that impacted a rookies' ability to contribute right away - their own talent, the talent surrounding them (the team rating), their starting status (the start number) and the worth of their fantasy position (the position modifier).  

Numerous sources concentrate on the NFL draft, so NFL scout and analyst opinion on player talent is readily available. The REF relies on many sources for information on rookies, some web- based and some published. Many of those use a 10 scale to grade the players. For convenience, that measurement was kept and any talent evaluations graded out differently were converted to a 10 point scale.

A rookie is no good on the bench right? A player’s starting opportunity is more difficult to develop than is immediately apparent. Obvious starters receive the most weight. But what to do about platoon players, like running backs and wide receivers, or rookies that are drafted by a team deep at their position and then who just sit there for a year, or maybe even two? The solution was to give players like that increasingly bigger slices of the starter pie, as they worked their way up the depth chart.  

The next modifier to quantify is the player position value. Running backs usually make the most immediate starting impact, so they warrant the highest rating. By reviewing each position and evaluating how often a player in that position makes a big fantasy impact, players are then graded accordingly. This is hardly perfect though. Rookie quarterbacks and wide receivers rarely make a big fantasy impact immediately. So for them, their position ranking is a more an indicator of future value than immediate worth.

The final consideration is rating each NFL team that the rookies would be joining. This is perhaps simple in theory but harder in practice to sort out. After the obvious offensive juggernaughts and weak sisters, it is more difficult to rate the middle tier teams. The ranking considers if a team had made itself better or worse in the offseason and then using many different statistical categories from the previous season, each team was ranked for both offense and defense.

The final result was a statistical model that, while not perfect, performs an objective and quantifiable measurement on those new players. It allows a comparison of rookies side by side, and to determine where the talent pools and standouts are. As with all statistical models, the formula is a work in project – just like all those rookies.