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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 3
September 22, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
ARZ at ATL* CHI at MIN JAX at TEN SF at SEA* DAL at WAS*
BAL at CIN PIT at MIA Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
HOU at KC* CLE at NYG* SD at DEN* TB at OAK BUF, CAR
PHI at DET NO at STL* GB at IND* *updated NE, NYJ
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 250,2
RB Ahman Green 120,1 30 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 10 0
WR Javon Walker 0 80,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 50 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 70,1 0
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 3 XP -
  Indianapolis Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 0 0 300,3
RB Dominic Rhodes 70,1 10 0
TE Marcus Pollard 0 10 0
TE Dallas Clark 0 20,1 0
WR Marvin Harrison 0 110,1 0
WR Brandon Stokley 0 50 0
WR Reggie Wayne 0 90,1 0
PK Mike Vanderjagt 1 FG 4 XP -

GB (1-1) vs IND (1-1)

Game Prediction: GB 24, IND 31

The hard part to accept is that one of these teams is going to be 1-2 on Monday.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

Maybe they were sleeping, maybe they overlooked the Bears or maybe they just thought they could mail it in from the Lambeau mailbox but the result was the same. Thomas Jones and the Bears walked away winners last week.

Quarterback: Brett Favre was a part of the breakdown last week, throwing for 252 yards and one score but against two interceptions. Take those two away along with Ahman Green's fumble and the Packers should have won.

Running Backs: For the second week, Ahman Green had a big statistical day, rushing for 128 yards on 24 carries last week and totaling 247 yards and two scores in the first two weeks of the season. Najeh Davenport missed last week with a hamstring problem and will likely miss this week as well. Tony Fisher will again take the #2 role.

Wide Receivers: As expected, Javon Walker had a nice game with seven catches for 102 yards which was double the yardage of any other receiver.Robert Ferguson had the lone score last week but both he and Donald Driver only managed about 50 yards receiving. They should definitely all contribute in the likely point-fest that awaits in Indy this week.

Tight Ends: Remember when the tight end was a big part of the offense? Why? Doesn't happen anymore.

Match Against the Defense: The Colts offense has been high-powered this season but fortunately the defense remains below average and ripe for the exploiting.

Favre should turn in his best game of the year here with a probable need to keep scoring and facing a secondary that has allowed over 600 passing yards and three scores in only two games.

Chris Brown had no problem gaining 152 yards and a score last week, so expect that Ahman Green notches his third straight 100+ yard effort this season.

Javon Walker should have the best matchup this week and should score but Robert Ferguson will also be a factor. In a points race like this seemingly should become, the duo and even Driver will be seeing plenty of passes, particularly later in the game.

Pre-Game Notes - IND

After a hard-fought and close loss in NE, the Colts went to TEN and spanked the Titans. With JAX, OAK and a bye looming, this should be the best points game for the next month from the Colts.

Quarterback: In a showing of his consistency, Peyton Manning has roughly 255 yards and two scores in the last two games and both were against upper tier defenses (TEN and NE). This offense is humming and the likely absence of Edgerrin James this week will make Peyton's arm even more important.

Running Backs: Edgerrin James may be sidelined for one to two weeks with a strained left hamstring. James suffered a second-degree strain in the fourth quarter last week and will likely be replaced by Dominic Rhodes. The offense should be fine with Rhodes who was impressive against the Patriots though the focus of the offense will likely tend more towards the passing game this week.

Update: Edgerrin James was impressive enough in practice on Thursday that HC Tony Dungy won't rule him out for the game on Sunday. He did go on to say that even if James could play, it would be limited. I am not adding in James yet since he appears to only be available for limited action if it all but I am slightly lowering Rhodes numbers from the chance that he might share carries with James. Rhodes is still a safe play.

Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison already has 17 receptions this season which is a pace for a 136 catch season. The more important development is that Reggie Wayne counted big last week with seven catches for 119 yards and one score. He has historically been only effective at home but hopefully has broken through that barrier to provide Manning with two always viable options down deep.

Tight Ends: Dallas Clark had a minor foot injury in the Tennessee game last week and ended with no catches. He's expected to be fine this week and will join Marcus Pollard to face the Packers.

Match Against the Defense: Which Packers will show up? The one that went on the road and held Stephen Davis to only 26 yards on nine carries or the one that just allowed Thomas Jones to single-handedly beat them with 152 yards on 23 carries in Green Bay?

Chances are best the former comes to play and there's no overlooking or failing to prepare for the Indianapolis Colts. With Edgerrin James out, Dominic Rhodes should see moderate success but much will be predicated on the game situations and if the Colts have the luxury of wanting to slow down the game and speed up the clock.

The Packers are a bit weaker on the Reggie Wayne side and he's clicking with Manning lately. Harrison will get his catches regardless and without Edgerrin, this should turn into a high passing game on both sides and generate some nice fantasy numbers.

 

GB IND 2003 Averages IND GB
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
198
304
Pass yards
255
208
1
1.5
Pass TDs
2.0
1.5
1
1.0
Interceptions
0.5
1
4
1
Rush yards
12
4
0
0.5
Rush TDs
0.0
0
 
---
RB's
---
 
148
120
Rush yards
154
102
1
0.5
Rush TDs
1.5
0.5
32
6
Receive yards
16
48
0.5
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
1.0
 
---
WR's
---
 
141
233
Receive yards
204
124
0.5
1.0
Receive TD's
1.5
0.5
 
---
TE's
---
 
25
68
Receive yards
36
37
0
0.5
Receive TD's
0.5
0.0
 
---
PK's
---
 
1
1.5
Field Goals
1.0
0.0
2
2.5
Extra Points
3.5
2.5
 
---
DEF/ST
---
 
1
1.5
Fumbles
1.0
0.5
1
0.5
Interceptions
1.0
1.0
0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.0
0.5
1.5
1.0
Sacks
2.5
1.0
0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0
Packers (1-1)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
Week 3 @IND
Week 4 NYG
Week 5 TEN
Week 6 @DET
Week 7 DAL
Week 8 @WAS
Week 9 bye
Week 10 MIN
Week 11 @HOU
Week 12 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI
Colts (1-1)
Score Opp.
24-27 @NE
31-17 @TEN
Week 3 GB
Week 4 @JAX
Week 5 OAK
Week 6 bye
Week 7 JAX
Week 8 @KC
Week 9 MIN
Week 10 HOU
Week 11 @CHI
Week 12 @DET
Week 13 TEN
Week 14 @HOU
Week 15 BAL
Week 16 SD
Week 17 @DEN