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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 3
September 22, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
ARZ at ATL* CHI at MIN JAX at TEN SF at SEA* DAL at WAS*
BAL at CIN PIT at MIA Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
HOU at KC* CLE at NYG* SD at DEN* TB at OAK BUF, CAR
PHI at DET NO at STL* GB at IND* *updated NE, NYJ
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 10 0 220,1
RB Domanick Davis 120,1 40 0
TE Miller/Bruener 0 10 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 60 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 70,1 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 20 0
PK Kris Brown 1 FG 2 XP -
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 210,2
RB Derrick Blaylock 70 20 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 60,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 60,1 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
WR Richard Smith 0 30 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -

HOU (0-2) vs KC (0-2)

Game Prediction: HOU 17, KC 20

One of these teams falls to 0-3 and can pretty much kiss off the season before we even reach October.

Pre-Game Notes - HOU

The Texans had grandiose plans to go 2-0 and have their first consecutive wins in franchise history. Now they are writing records still, except this one is for the poorest start ever for the Texans. For the want of not losing two fumbles and allowing a kickoff to be returned for 99 yards and a score, these Texans might be happy.

Quarterback: David Carr comes off a big 313 yard effort against the Lions with two touchdowns against only one interception and he even rushed for 30 yards on five carries. He has not been the problem with the offense.

Running Backs: Here's the problem. Domanick Davis has now lost four fumbles in the first two games of the season. There were only three running backs in the entire league in 2003 that had more than four fumbles and that was over the whole season. Davis now knows that every defender will be grabbing/poking/swatting harder than ever before. There's no move to reduce the touches for the otherwise productive back, but it is a definite problem that needs to be addressed.

Davis had 173 total yards last week against Detroit and 157 the previous week against the Chargers. He just needs to hold on to the ball.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson led receivers last week with three catches for 86 yards and one score while Corey Bradford (3-52) also scored. While Jabar Gaffney did figure in, Derick Armstrong actually had the most catches against Detroit with four for 49 yards. He is making a strong push to replace Gaffney as the #3.

Tight Ends: They only mattered in the first season. This season - two catches for 13 yards.

Match Against the Defense: Domanick Davis is no doubt licking his chops at the notion he gets to face the worst rushing defense in the league. In just two weeks, KC has allowed 385 rushing yards and three touchdowns. After the fumble-itus of the last two weeks, Davis will want to make amends.

Likewise, David Carr should enjoy a nice outing against the team that has five passing scores allowed already. Look for Andre Johnson to net one score and another to go to Bradford or Armstrong if Davis doesn't end up rushing it in. The Chiefs have already given up 62 points this season - worst in the league.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

Kansas City was already reeling from starting 0-2 and allowing the Panthers to leave while saying "all your base belong to us". Now Priest Holmes has an ankle sprain and sore knee that could keep him out this week. With an offense already sputtering outside of Holmes, his absence could send this team into a surprise tailspin if it happens and lasts for any length of time.

Quarterback: Trent Green still has yet to throw a touchdown this season. He has not even exceeded 187 passing yards in a game yet. He has had two interceptions and a fumble. The lack of wideouts was not a problem last year and so far 2004 has been regularly depriving him of options. Now with Holmes and likely Kennison out, it only gets worse.

Running Backs: As noted, Priest Holmes suffered an ankle sprain in the fourth quarter last week along with a minor knee sprain when his leg was bent beneath him as he was knocked backwards on a play. According to HC Dick Vermeil, he's "questionable to doubtful" this week. Derrick Blaylock will take the start if Holmes cannot play and I am assuming such pending more information later in the week. Updates as warranted on this critical injury.

Update: Holmes has resumed some light running but is looking more doubtful than questionable - the wrong direction if he is going to start. HC Dick Vermeil said that Blaylock would get the start and accidentally insulted Larry Johnson by saying he needed to lose his diapers. I am bumping up Blaylock's numbers a bit since there is more confidence that he will get to play but be aware too that Johnson could figure in.

Wide Receivers: Eddie Kennison suffered a hamstring injury last week and is also doubtful to play at this point. I am assuming he is out and that Johnnie Morton will be joined by Dante Hall and Richard Smith in a passing game that will be more important than usual.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez only has six catches this year for 80 yards and must become more in the game plan considering the potential absence of Holmes and Kennison. He had nine passes last week but only brought down four for 63 yards.

Match Against the Defense: This changes significantly with the absence of Kennison and Holmes.

Derrick Blaylock faces a team that Tomlinson shredded in week one but that matchup is less attractive with Blaylock a definite step down from Holmes. Kevin Jones only had 57 yards last week and that looks much more likely.

Trent Green will need to pick up the pace and get something going through the air and the Houston secondary outside of Aaron Glenn can be beaten. The Texans gave up three passing scores last week in Detroit and should provide both Morton and Gonzalez with better games.

The shift in offensive philosophy is significant when Holmes and Kennison are both gone. This game tests the mettle of the Chiefs and they need to answer the call against a team they should beat. If they lose here, the drain swirls clockwise in this hemisphere.

HOU KC 2003 Averages KC HOU
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
271
177
Pass yards
181
193
1.0
1.5
Pass TDs
0.0
2.5
1.5
1.5
Interceptions
1.0
0.5
21
2
Rush yards
9
8
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
90
174
Rush yards
122
101
1.0
2.0
Rush TDs
2.0
0.5
98
33
Receive yards
19
11
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.5
---
---
WR's
---
---
167
134
Receive yards
122
111
1.0
0.5
Receive TD's
0.0
2.0
---
---
TE's
---
---
7
11
Receive yards
40
71
0.0
1.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.5
0.5
Field Goals
1.0
1.0
1.5
3.5
Extra Points
2.5
3.5
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.0
1.0
Fumbles
0.5
2.0
0.5
1.5
Interceptions
2.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
Sacks
1.5
3.5
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Texans (0-2)
Score Opp.
20-27 SD
16-28 @DET
Week 3 @KC
Week 4 OAK
Week 5 MIN
Week 6 @TEN
Week 7 bye
Week 8 JAX
Week 9 @DEN
Week 10 @IND
Week 11 GB
Week 12 TEN
Week 13 @NYJ
Week 14 IND
Week 15 @CHI
Week 16 @JAX
Week 17 CLE
Chiefs (0-2)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
Week 3 HOU
Week 4 @BAL
Week 5 bye
Week 6 @JAX
Week 7 ATL
Week 8 IND
Week 9 @TB
Week 10 @NO
Week 11 NE
Week 12 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD