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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 3
September 22, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
ARZ at ATL* CHI at MIN JAX at TEN SF at SEA* DAL at WAS*
BAL at CIN PIT at MIA Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
HOU at KC* CLE at NYG* SD at DEN* TB at OAK BUF, CAR
PHI at DET NO at STL* GB at IND* *updated NE, NYJ
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 150
RB Fred Taylor 50 10 0
TE George Wrighster 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 70 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 40 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 20 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 0 XP -
  Tennessee Rush Catch Pass
QB Steve McNair 20 0 180,1
RB Chris Brown 80,1 10 0
TE Erron Kinney 0 20 0
WR Derrick Mason 0 70 0
WR Eddie Berlin 0 10 0
WR Drew Bennett 0 60,1 0
PK Gary Anderson 2 FG 2 XP -

JAX (2-0) vs TEN (1-1)

Game Prediction: JAX 3, TEN 20

This battle for the AFC South is no surprise to pit a 2-0 team against a 1-1 team. It's just the names besides the records that were unexpected.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

Defense wins championships and this year, defense alone can also win games. The Jaguars are 2-0 with only an average of 10 points per game. That will not be enough this week.

Quarterback: Byron Leftwich hit a new low last week when he only threw for 120 yards against the Broncos. Since Fred Taylor only had 54 yards on the ground, it was not from a lack of need. He only completed eight passes of 16 attempts but did avoid the interceptions after throwing two against the Bills.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor may still be bothered by his foot injury and the loss of Kyle Brady as a blocker is another likely source. But the net effect is to make this 6th best back in total yardage from 2003 only have 115 yards and no scores on the season. Running in Nashville this week won't likely be the cure.

Wide Receivers: Even with only 120 yards passing, Jimmy Smith still managed to be fantasy relevant last week when he caught three passes for 69 yards. No other receiver had more than two catches or 19 yards.

Tight Ends: The Jags expect Kyle Brady to return to practice this week, although it appears questionable that he will play Sunday at Tennessee. Brady is three weeks removed from having a pin inserted to repair a ruptured tendon in his middle finger. In his place, George Wrighster had only one pass last week and failed to catch it.

Match Against the Defense: Since the Titans come off a thorough defeat in Indianapolis, they need this game for several reasons.

Even last year, Taylor could do nothing against the Titans and gained 48 and 65 yards in two games. That was before his problems. Avoid Taylor if you can this week.

Leftwich has also not thrown for more than 158 yards against Tennessee and Jimmy Smith only had one catch for five yards there last year. This is a game to avoid all Jacksonville players.

Pre-Game Notes - TEN

The Titans still have problems with the Colts but they've always handled the Jaguars easy enough. Now they have an even bigger reason.

Quarterback: Steve McNair had a much better game statistically last week when he threw for 273 yards but failed to score. After that 73 yard game in week one, anything looks good. He'll be facing a far better defense this week.

Running Backs: Chris Brown has been everything that Eddie George once was. He's got 252 yards on 42 carries in just six quarters of play this year and faces his second big test against the Jaguars rush defense. Brown had 100 yards in the first half against the Dolphins in Miami. A good game here cements his promotion as genius.

Wide Receivers: With some passing yardage to finally dole out, McNair naturally went with Derrick Mason last week (8-104) but also gave equal attention to Drew Bennett (7-85). Tyrone Calico is slated to return to practice this week and there is a chance that he'll play but until later word is given I am counting him out this week. Updates as warranted.

Tight Ends: Erron Kinney had six catches last week and a touchdown against the Colts. Unless he needs to stay in and block against the Jaguars, he should turn in at least a moderate game as an outlet for McNair.

Match Against the Defense: McNair does not have big games against the Jaguars and they are not too keen on giving them either. Last year he had two games with 187 and 166 yards passing with one score in each. The Titans will be making any mistakes by Leftwich count big and that could adjust field position heavily in the Titans favor. Regardless, you can be certain that the Jaguars will not be rolling up any big scores which force the Titans to throw.

Look for good defense by both teams but the main fantasy player here to be Chris Brown trying to run out the clock,

JAX TEN 2003 Averages TEN JAX
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
134
232
Pass yards
173
202
1.0
1.5
Pass TDs
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
Interceptions
0.5
0.0
10
3
Rush yards
7
10
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.5
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
66
92
Rush yards
163
94
0.0
1.0
Rush TDs
0.5
0.0
2
32
Receive yards
9
26
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
126
158
Receive yards
137
160
1.0
0.5
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
TE's
---
---
6
43
Receive yards
29
38
0.0
1.0
Receive TD's
0.5
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.0
0.5
Field Goals
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.5
Extra Points
2.0
0.5
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.5
1.0
Fumbles
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
Interceptions
1.5
1.0
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.5
0.0
0.5
2.5
Sacks
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jaguars (2-0)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
Week 3 @TEN
Week 4 IND
Week 5 @SD
Week 6 KC
Week 7 @IND
Week 8 @HOU
Week 9 bye
Week 10 DET
Week 11 TEN
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 PIT
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK
Tennessee (1-1)
Score Opp.
17-7 @MIA
17-31 IND
Week 3 JAX
Week 4 @SD
Week 5 @GB
Week 6 HOU
Week 7 @MIN
Week 8 CIN
Week 9 bye
Week 10 CHI
Week 11 @JAX
Week 12 @HOU
Week 13 @IND
Week 14 KC
Week 15 @OAK
Week 16 DEN
Week 17 DET