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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 4
September 29, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
NE at BUF IND at JAX NO at ARZ* TEN at SD* KC at BAL
PHI at CHI OAK at HOU* ATL at CAR* Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
NYG at GB CIN at PIT NYJ at MIA* STL at SF* DAL, DET
WAS at CLE* Times ET DEN at TB *updated MIN, SEA
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 230,1
RB Priest Holmes 70 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 60,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 60 0
WR Dante Hall 0 40 0
WR Chris Horn 0 20 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 1 XP -
  Baltimore Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Boller 30 0 130,1
RB Jamal Lewis 130,2 10 0
TE Wilcox/Jones 0 20 0
WR Devard Darling 0 10 0
WR Kevin Johnson 0 30,1 0
WR Randy Hymes 0 40 0
PK Matt Stover 2 FG 3 XP -

KC (0-3) vs BAL (2-1)

Game Prediction: KC 13, BAL 27

After stumbling to a 0-3 start, heading into Baltimore is not likely to heal what has been hurting the Chiefs. The loss to the Texans was almost a spirit-breaker and while the Chiefs need to come up big this week, this is almost exactly the wrong place to go to find themselves again. On a national stage on Monday night no less.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

The first two games were against a tough schedule, but after getting beaten by the Texans in Arrowhead, nobody blames Vermeil for shedding a few tears now.

Quarterback: Trent Green finally broke his endzone drought this season when he threw three scores against the visiting Texans last week but that one throw from the Texans 2-yard line that was returned for a Houston score was a back breaker and the entire difference in the game. Without that little gem, the Chiefs could have gone up 21-6 in the game.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes healed quickly for an older guy. There were no signs that the ankle sprain from week two were a factor as he rushed for 134 yards on 32 carries though he had no catches in the game for the very first time ever as a Chief. He had two passes but no receptions. Now he gets to face the Ravens on the road which should prove a far cry from the Texans in Arrowhead.

Wide Receivers: With Eddie Kennison out due to a hamstring injury, the Chiefs activated Chris Horn from the practice squad and Horn had a touchdown in his first NFL game. Johnnie Morton led receivers with 55 yards on four catches but so far Horn has the lone wideout score for the Chiefs this season. Maybe they should open that practice squad roster up and look to see what else they have there.

Tight Ends: After a slow start and rumblings about his foot being a bigger hindrance than was being let on, Tony Gonzalez led all NFL tight ends on Sunday with eight catches for 106 yards and one touchdown. He was almost invisible in the fourth quarter when they needed him the most though.

Match Against the Defense: The Ravens have not allowed a 100 yard rusher this season though Rudi Johnson did gain 98 yards on 23 runs. They also have not allowed a rushing score. Figure that Holmes will start catching passes again but that his dance ticket is being paid for by Ray Lewis this week. The Ravens also should welcome back NT Kelly Gregg who is their best run stopper.

Don't expect too much from Green this week even though Palmer had 316 yards last Sunday. The Bengals may have three wideouts better than any on the KC roster and most teams only hover around 180 yards and one score against BAL. The Ravens have only given up three passing scores this year and all were to wideouts and Sanders may be back this week as well (if that is actually a positive).

Morton should be the main target other than Gonzalez and he has the better matchup in that "lesser of two evils" sort of way.

Pre-Game Notes - BAL

Who knew all the Ravens needed to return to form was to lose their best wideout and tight end? Oh yes, and play the Bengals.

Quarterback: Oddly enough, Kyle Boller probably had his most effective game in a while last Sunday, completing 11 of 18 for 126 yards and one score, with 24 rushing yards and another touchdown. Evidently the passing game of BAL becomes harder to prepare for when Heap is not there to catch all the passes. Then again, 126 passing yards will not win a fantasy game.

Running Backs: Jamal Lewis should have bought OT Jonathan Ogden dinner last weekend after he discovered actual running lanes and regained his 2003 form by racking up 186 rushing yards and one score on only 18 carries. He caught one screen pass that gained 46 yards as well. With this defense and when Jamal Lewis hits overdrive, the Ravens are hard to beat.

Wide Receivers: Randy Hymes has been a pleasant surprise for the injured Travis Taylor and led receivers last week with four catches for 61 yards and one touchdown - the only passing score by BAL this year. When Lewis gets the running game into gear, this receiving crew has little value.

Kevin Johnson was held without a catch last week for the first time in 81 games.

Tight Ends: Daniel Wilcox took the start for the injured Heap but had no catches while Terry Jones maxed out with only seven yards on his lone reception. There Heap or there is nothing. This week - no Heap.

Match Against the Defense: Before you start thinking that the Chiefs suddenly and magically cured their rush defense problems last week, recall that Davis had a sprained ankle in the game and Jonathan Wells almost gained four yards per carry anyway. This game should be heavy volumes of Lewis running to make up some ground he lost on their first two weeks.

The Ravens should throw for one score since everyone does against the Chiefs and the most likely candidate would have been Heap but the offense has changed. Most likely either Kevin Johnson or Hymes again but neither should post much yardage unless a long throw happens.

KC BAL 2003 Averages BAL KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
195
246
Pass yards
138
196
1.0
1.0
Pass TDs
0.3
1.3
1.0
1.7
Interceptions
0.7
1.3
6
5
Rush yards
25
10
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
126
90
Rush yards
147
132
1.3
0.0
Rush TDs
1.0
1.3
16
21
Receive yards
16
30
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
116
200
Receive yards
72
146
0.3
1.0
Receive TD's
0.3
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
64
26
Receive yards
51
20
0.7
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.7
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.7
1.7
Field Goals
1.7
1.3
2.7
1.0
Extra Points
1.7
2.7
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.3
1.0
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
1.7
0.7
Interceptions
1.7
1.3
0.3
0.0
Touchdowns
0.3
0.3
2.0
2.3
Sacks
3.3
2.7
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Chiefs (0-3)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
21-24 HOU
Week 4 @BAL
Week 5 bye
Week 6 @JAX
Week 7 ATL
Week 8 IND
Week 9 @TB
Week 10 @NO
Week 11 NE
Week 12 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD
Ravens (2-1)
Score Opp.
3-20 @CLE
30-13 PIT
23-9 @CIN
Week 4 KC
Week 5 @WAS
Week 6 bye
Week 7 BUF
Week 8 @PHI
Week 9 CLE
Week 10 @NYJ
Week 11 DAL
Week 12 @NE
Week 13 CIN
Week 14 NYG
Week 15 @IND
Week 16 @PIT
Week 17 MIA