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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 13, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
MIA at BUF* GB at DET* CAR at PHI* DEN at OAK TB at STL
SD at ATL KC at JAX HOU at TEN* PIT at DAL Bye Week:
CIN at CLE* SF at NYJ*   Sun 8:30 PM ARZ, BAL
WAS at CHI* SEA at NE* Times ET MIN at NO IND, NYG
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 260,2
RB Ahman Green 60 20 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 20 0
WR Javon Walker 0 110,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 50 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 50,1 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 10 0
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 2 XP -
  Detroit Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington 0 0 190,1
RB Shawn Bryson 20 20 0
RB Artose Pinner 70,1 10 0
TE Stephen Alexander 0 15 0
WR Roy Williams 0 30 0
WR Az-Zahir Hakim 0 60,1 0
WR Tai Streets 0 40 0
PK Jason Hanson 2 FG 2 XP -

GB (1-4) vs DET (3-1)

Game Prediction: GB 17, DET 20

The biggest surprise here is not the records coming into the game, it's who is the 3-1 team and who is the 1-4 team. The Lions may be without Roy Williams which will hurt, but they still have a vastly underrated defense.

Update: Ferguson injured his left ankle and practice and appears likely to miss this week. He was pretty much worthless anyway.

There is a good chance that Kevin Jones gets some carries this weekend though Pinner will be the primary back. I am not changing the numbers for Pinner, but be aware that Jones may get some carries this weekend.

Roy Williams has not practiced due to his sprained ankle but the coaches seem optimisitic that he may still play. I am adding him back into the projections but realize his ankle will not be fully healed and he may not have any catches or even play. He'll likely be a gametime decision but so far it seems likely he will play in some capacity.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

Three losses at Lambeau. Unthinkable. But not, evidently impossible. The Packers are on their worst start in about 15 years and they are not looking any better. After getting slammed by the Titans, they easily rank as the biggest disappointment of 2004.

Quarterback: Brett Favre comes off a nice fantasy game with 338 yards and two scores before giving way to Craig Nall in the blowout last week. Problem is that Favre threw three interceptions which puts him at six on the year. This team cannot recover from turnovers.

Running Backs: Ahman Green looks like he has a flat tire. After two big games to start the season, he's been getting worse every week and only had 33 yards on 10 carries against Tennessee. He already has three fumbles on the season. This is a team with their wheels wobbling and nowhere is it more evident than in the decline of Green's production. He scored 20 touchdowns in 2003 and has none in the past four weeks.

Wide Receivers: Javon Walker comes off his third 100 yard effort of the season and has been the lone consistent fantasy player on this team. Even he only had 37 yards in week four against the Giants but he has five scores over the past three weeks. Donald Driver had ten catches for 150 yards but no scores in the frenzied passing last week but no other receiver has emerged. Robert Ferguson has exactly one catch in each of the past three games and is a complete non-factor.

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks scored twice against Tennessee but that's not the start of anything big for him. The Titans are horrible against tight ends and have allowed every team to use a tight end for at least one touchdown this year. Figure Franks to get back in his hole.

Match Against the Defense: Favre had three passing touchdowns last season against the Lions and did turn in 296 yards in Detroit in 2003. The Lions defense did give up over 300 yards to both visitors this year though and two scores for each. But as a visitor it will be a challenge and Dre Bly may be back this week and would match against Donald Driver.

Expect Javon Walker to turn in some good yardage here as he did in 2003 when he scored once with 93 yards. Favre is going to need to throw, the only question is which team will be catching it since the past four games have produced eight turnovers by the opposing quarterback.

Ahman Green had a huge game against the Lions in Green Bay, but only managed 57 yards and no score in Detroit last year when he was playing far better. Expect only moderate numbers yet again from him.

Pre-Game Notes - DET

The Lions have two consecutive road wins and return home after taking down the undefeated Falcons. Is this season different enough for you yet? And they get to face the Packers who are reeling at 1-4 on the season. This is truly Motor City Madness.

Quarterback: Joey Harrington has not been a great fantasy quarterback, but he's done just enough to win games this year and only has two interceptions against seven touchdowns. When Roy Williams left the game last week, Harrington kept the team moving. It'll be a tall order this week if Williams does not play but Harrington's proving to be smarter this year in a system he now knows, even if it doesn't produce big fantasy numbers.

Running Backs: Kevin Jones is back to light jogging from his high ankle sprain but will miss this week. Artose Pinner is expected to be the starter against the Packers but he hasn't been a real threat. Pinner rushed for 68 yards on 23 carries for a 2.9 YPC last week but did score once against the Falcons. Shawn Bryson will donate his standard four or five carries but this is a second chance for Pinner to make some noise.

Wide Receivers: Roy Williams pulled up lame last week with what was feared to be a high ankle sprain. Ends up to only be a regular sprain and he is day-to-day. Since he was on crutches after the game I am counting him out but will update later this week if needed. In his place Az-Zahir Hakim stepped up and had three catches for 64 yards and the one passing score. Tai Streets continues to be a non-factor regardless if Williams is there or not.

Tight Ends: Amazingly, Stephen Alexander has played four games now with three 15 yard performances and one 13 yard game. That's consistency and that's a player to avoid for your team.

Match Against the Defense: Much of the outcome of the game is predicated on Roy Williams who is clearly the favorite of Harrington - rightfully so. Without him the passing game will resemble 2003 where even fans were not sure who caught the ball.

Artose Pinner should score once - all teams do - but he's not likely for a big yardage effort in spite of the soft rushing defense of the Packers. Pinner has not yet shown that he has the physical ability to take advantage of what should be a golden - and sorely needed - opportunity.

There are a lot of variables at play here - a great Lions defense facing a shell-shocked Packer offense and the specter of Roy Williams unsettled. The Lions beat Green Bay in Detroit last year during week 13 and that was with a far less cohesive team against a much better Packer squad.

 

GB DET 2004 Averages DET GB
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
282
273
Pass yards
177
240
2.0
1.0
Pass TDs
1.8
2.2
1.6
1.0
Interceptions
0.5
0.6
5
20
Rush yards
9
13
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
 
---
RB's
---
 
93
72
Rush yards
80
130
0.4
0.8
Rush TDs
0.3
1.2
52
52
Receive yards
36
40
0.2
0.0
Receive TD's
0.3
0.8
 
---
WR's
---
 
204
182
Receive yards
123
173
1.4
0.8
Receive TD's
1.5
1.4
 
---
TE's
---
 
25
45
Receive yards
19
33
0.4
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.2
 
---
PK's
---
 
1.0
1.0
Field Goals
0.6
0.8
2.4
1.4
Extra Points
1.8
3.8
 
---
DEF/ST
---
 
0.4
0.3
Fumbles
2.0
1.4
0.6
0.5
Interceptions
1.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.5
0.2
1.4
2.8
Sacks
4.0
0.6
0.0
0.3
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Packers (1-4)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
Week 6 @DET
Week 7 DAL
Week 8 @WAS
Week 9 bye
Week 10 MIN
Week 11 @HOU
Week 12 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI
Lions(3-1)
Score Opp.
20-16 @CHI
28-16 HOU
13-30 PHI
Week 4 bye
17-10 @ATL
Week 6 GB
Week 7 @NYG
Week 8 @DAL
Week 9 WAS
Week 10 @JAX
Week 11 @MIN
Week 12 IND
Week 13 ARI
Week 14 @GB
Week 15 MIN
Week 16 CHI
Week 17 @TEN