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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 13, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
MIA at BUF* GB at DET* CAR at PHI* DEN at OAK TB at STL
SD at ATL KC at JAX HOU at TEN* PIT at DAL Bye Week:
CIN at CLE* SF at NYJ*   Sun 8:30 PM ARZ, BAL
WAS at CHI* SEA at NE* Times ET MIN at NO IND, NYG
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 210,1
RB Priest Holmes 100,1 30 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 50,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 20 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 60 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 250,1
RB Fred Taylor 90,1 20 0
TE George Wrighster 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 100,1 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 40 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 40 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP -

KC (1-3) vs JAX (3-2)

Game Prediction: KC 20, JAX 17

Here's where something has to give. The Chiefs have never allowed less than 24 points to an opponent this season and yet the Jaguars have never scored more than 21 points. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they have not only scored a bit more each game up to the 21 point level, they have also been allowing opponents to score more up through the 34 points piled on by the Chargers last week. The Chiefs don't have any real defense but plenty of good offense that has rested for a week.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

After losing their first three games, the Chiefs finally turned the boat around against the Ravens in week four thanks to there being no opponent offense to worry about. This week they go against a lesser defense but a bit more offense.

Quarterback: After throwing for three scores and 224 yards against the Texans, Trent Green only managed one score and 223 yards against the Ravens in a game, yet again, controlled by Priest Holmes. As long as Holmes holds up, the Chiefs are much bigger on running this season than 2003 and Green will have marginal fantasy value.

Running Backs: Let's make it simple. The only time Priest Holmes has not turned in a monster game was against the Panthers when he had 82 total yards and one score. Otherwise, cha-ching every week, no matter the opponent. Even against the Ravens he had two touchdowns and 125 yards.

Wide Receivers: The best you can reasonably expect from this crew is about 60 yards to the best one. Eddie Kennison should return this week and he has the lone 100 yard game all season. He will take his place back over from Chris Horn and face one of the better secondaries in the league.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez only had 42 yards on four catches in his last game and other than his one big game in week three against the Texans (8-106, 1 TD), he has been a disappointment to mirror the lack of passing by the Chiefs this season.

Gonzalez is bothered by a sore foot but is expected to play this week.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars rush defense is getting worse. They've allowed four rushing touchdowns this season and two 100 yard games already. They opened against a who's who of top backs - Tomlinson, James and Brown most recently and now go against the best one of all. Look for Holmes to approach 100 yards and to turn in a few receptions as well with at least one score.

The Jaguars secondary has done well and held all opponents down to lower numbers including Harrison (4-45, 1 TD) but in the last two weeks have allowed Marcus Pollard and Antonio Gates to score a total of three times. Expect Gonzalez to get involved again in the passing game.

The receivers are not likely to offer much this week but both Gonzalez and Holmes, as always, are good plays.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

The more forgiving defense has made the offense kick in a higher gear lately. They've lost the last two games but are looking much better doing it - fantasy wise that is.

Quarterback: All Byron Leftwich really needed was to see his team trailing badly on the scoreboard. In the past two weeks, Leftwich has thrown for for a total of 785 yards but only two touchdowns. His 357 yards last week was a season high and a career high. Going against the softer defense of the Chiefs, a good effort is brewing yet again.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor continues to struggle and has yet to gain over 81 yards in any game and has only one touchdown on the season. With the offense needing to pass more, he's not even getting as many carries. This week should be a definite opportunity for him and one he needs desperately to go well.

Taylor may be without his two back-ups since both Labrandon Toefield (knee) and Greg Jones (groin) may miss this week. Taylor will have no excuses with minimal other players to take away any carries.

Wide Receivers: Jimmy Smith turned in the first 100 yard effort of the season last week when he ended with 113 yards on eight catches. No other receiver has proven capable of gaining more than about 50 yards in a game in spite of the big passing yardage of late. Cortez Hankton had his first start of the season and caught the lone touchdown pass against the Chargers on his only catch in the game. The Jaguars are trying to get Reggie Williams involved more but he still has yet to catch more than three passes in a game.

Tight Ends: George Wrighster missed last week but is expected back. In his place nothing happened much like when he is in there.

Match Against the Defense: Here is the chance for Taylor to get back on track. The Chiefs have stopped no runners this year though they held down Jamal Lewis in the one win to only 75 yards and one score since they could safely commit everyone to stopping him. They did also stuff Domanick Davis in a game that he sprained his ankle. The Jaguars must establish the run early to have a chance at controlling this game because the Chiefs are likely to post some decent points given enough time. Figure Taylor for an above average game and a chance at his first 100 effort of the season.

Leftwich is a safe start this week against a team that has always allowed their opponent to score through the air. On this team, that likely means Jimmy Smith but could fall to any of the three other receivers rotated in during a game just as easily.

KC JAX 2004 Averages JAX KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
202
195
Pass yards
213
185
1.0
1.0
Pass TDs
1.0
1.3
0.8
0.4
Interceptions
0.8
1.0
9
7
Rush yards
7
8
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.2
0.8
---
---
RB's
---
---
134
114
Rush yards
86
118
1.5
0.8
Rush TDs
0.4
1.3
14
42
Receive yards
33
25
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
124
120
Receive yards
156
136
0.3
0.2
Receive TD's
0.8
0.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
64
42
Receive yards
23
25
0.8
0.6
Receive TD's
0.2
0.5
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.0
1.6
Field Goals
1.0
1.3
2.8
1.6
Extra Points
1.2
2.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.3
0.4
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
1.3
0.8
Interceptions
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.0
Touchdowns
0.0
0.5
2.5
2.0
Sacks
1.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Chiefs (1-3)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
21-24 HOU
27-24 @BAL
Week 5 bye
Week 6 @JAX
Week 7 ATL
Week 8 IND
Week 9 @TB
Week 10 @NO
Week 11 NE
Week 12 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD
Jaguars (3-2)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
15-12 @TEN
17-24 IND
21-34 @SD
Week 6 KC
Week 7 @IND
Week 8 @HOU
Week 9 bye
Week 10 DET
Week 11 TEN
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 PIT
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK