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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 13, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
MIA at BUF* GB at DET* CAR at PHI* DEN at OAK TB at STL
SD at ATL KC at JAX HOU at TEN* PIT at DAL Bye Week:
CIN at CLE* SF at NYJ*   Sun 8:30 PM ARZ, BAL
WAS at CHI* SEA at NE* Times ET MIN at NO IND, NYG
Miami Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Fiedler 0 0 190,1
RB Brock Forsey 30 0 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 60,1 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 40 0
WR Derrius Thompson 0 20 0
WR Marty Booker 0 50 0
PK Matt Bryant 0 FG 1 XP -
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 170
RB Travis Henry 60,1 10 0
RB Willis McGahee 70,1 10 0
TE M. Campbell 0 10 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 40 0
WR Josh Reed 0 30 0
WR Lee Evans 0 50 0
WR Bobby Shaw 0 30 0
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -

MIA (0-5) vs BUF (0-4)

Game Prediction: MIA 7, BUF 10

We have a winner! We'll have to have one. Someone will be very bummed about still being winless and they're likely flying back home to Florida. If the Bills drop this game, it puts a stamp on their team as pure Mularkey. If the Dolphins drop this game, Wannstedt continues to give post game interviews that resemble the questioning of a crack addict down at the police station. "What? I wasn't even there."

Pre-Game Notes - MIA

Update: Jay Fiedler now appears likely to play and I have re-adjusted the score and projections in light of it. Another consideration is that Travis Minor may again be active this week after missing the last four games with a sprained ankle. That would definitely cut into the rushing yards of Forsey or Henry or whomever ends up running the ball. It is a bad situation anyway and not a suggest fantasy start regardless. Minor is worth watching to see what he might do but the Bills rush defense should be pretty stout this week anyway, so hold low expectations for the Dolphins regardless what mixture they might use.

Travis Henry is still bothered by his sprained foot and has not practiced. He has not yet been ruled out of the game but Willis McGahee is preparing to start. I am swapping over to McGahee as the starter though Henry still could end up playing. McGahee is the most likely scenario.

The Bills also cut Bobby Shaw, so I have redistributed the meager yardage I expected.

This is going to end up as a very hard game to forecast given all the player movement by both teams this week.

Each year, thankfully, there are always a handful of truly bad teams and in this case, one that actually gets worse each week. The defense is still very good and is hidden by the cloak of invisibility that the offense now wears. So long as the Dolphins offense cannot move the ball effectively and gives up great field position, even the Miami defense cannot stem the tide. Things are so bad that even Olindo Mare pulled lame right before kickoff. The only thing missing from this offense is background music playing "Welcome to Barnum and Bailey!"

Quarterback: This week there is a question who will start for the Fins at quarterback. Jay Fielder injured his ribs and left the game last Sunday and A.J. Feeley came in only to get a concussion. Right now the safest play, as if you would make it, is Sage Rosenfels. Updates as warranted.

Running Backs: In case you were already disappointed with Leonard Henry last week when Brock Forsey came in and took most of the carries, realize that Travis Minor may be back this week and muddy up the picture even more. Problem is when you have a gaggle of sub-average running backs, the starter may end up being the guy closest to the coach when the game begins.

The Dolphins liked what Forsey did last week after Henry was ineffective in the first quarter. I am projecting for Forsey this week but there will likely be a committee approach that divides up meager yardage anyway.

Wide Receivers: Although the Dolphins lost another game, hidden in it was the best game by the wideouts all season. Chris Chambers returned to play and had six catches for 37 yards and one touchdown while Marty Booker led all receivers with 123 yards on seven receptions. It is encouraging for the rest of the season to see both wideouts involved and in particular Marty Booker. They threw 27 passes to Booker and Chambers last week and will likely need to do so in many games this year.

Tight Ends: While Randy McMichael has not scored since week one, he has been consistently around 50 to 60 yards per game, upper end for a tight end in the NFL.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills pass defense has gotten worse every week, starting out with only 147 yards to Leftwich in week one and working up to Pennington's 304 yards last week. All quarterbacks have scored at least once against them though only Brady had more with two scores. Problem is, who will the quarterback be this week?

You can forget the running game here in case you had been eating mushrooms again. Any Miami back will struggle to gain even 30 yards in the game.

Pre-Game Notes - BUF

The Bills stumble to 0-4 in Mike Mularkey's first season and the offense has yet to score more than 17 points. This week - that may finally be enough since Miami has never scored more than 13.

Quarterback: Drew Bledsoe has thrown a touchdown in every game this season and comes off two scores against the Jets last week. He has only once gone over 200 yards passing though and the absence of any running game has forced him into throwing too much behind a bad offensive line.

Running Backs: Travis Henry still has yet to crack 100 yards this year and comes off a 33 yard effort on 12 carries. He's only averaging 3.3 yards per carry this year. Last week Willis McGahee added some spark with eight carries for 42 yards and should see more carries if that trend continues. The Bills have yet to score a rushing touchdown and this is likely not a week to change that.

Wide Receivers: Even with meager passing yardage, Eric Moulds continues to be a decent fantasy play with three touchdowns on the season and no game less than 54 yards. There's also optimism about Lee Evans who has shined in his last three games, catching a 61 yard pass in week two, then 93 yards on four catches in week three followed by one catch for 46 yards and his first NFL touchdown last week against the Jets. He's offering the exact speed role that the offense has missed since Peerless Price left and should only get better.

Tight Ends: Mark Campbell had a touchdown last week but no tight end here has scored otherwise and none have had more than 20 yards in a game.

Match Against the Defense: The reality is that this offense does not score much and Bledsoe has terrible games against the Fins. Last year he had yardage efforts of 98 and 114 against them with no scores. Given that the Bills offense relies primarily on two wideouts and the Fins have good corners, it's not likely any of the passing game will come up with even moderate numbers this week.

The Dolphin rush defense has been worse this year and that's where the Bills have to be productive. Expect Henry to turn in at least moderate numbers and possibly a touchdown unless McGahee gets more involved. This should be the lowest scoring game of the week. Easily.

MIA BUF 2004 Averages BUF MIA
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
206
240
Pass yards
199
120
0.6
1.3
Pass TDs
1.3
0.8
2.0
0.8
Interceptions
0.8
0.8
5
9
Rush yards
0
3
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
55
75
Rush yards
86
128
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.0
0.4
23
30
Receive yards
19
16
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
109
171
Receive yards
168
96
0.4
0.8
Receive TD's
0.8
0.4
---
---
TE's
---
---
73
39
Receive yards
23
9
0.2
0.5
Receive TD's
0.3
0.4
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.6
Field Goals
0.6
1.6
0.6
1.4
Extra Points
1.2
1.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.2
0.8
Fumbles
0.5
1.2
0.8
0.8
Interceptions
0.8
2.0
0.0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.6
2.4
4.8
Sacks
1.5
3.0
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Dolphins (0-5)
Score Opp.
7-17 TEN
13-16 @CIN
3-13 PIT
9-17 NYJ
10-24 @NE
Week 6 @BUF
Week 7 STL
Week 8 @NYJ
Week 9 ARI
Week 10 bye
Week 11 @SEA
Week 12 @SF
Week 13 BUF
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 NE
Week 16 CLE
Week 17 @BAL
Bills (0-4)
Score Opp.
10-13 JAX
10-13 @OAK
Week 3 bye
17-31 NE
14-16 @NYJ
Week 6 MIA
Week 7 @BAL
Week 8 ARI
Week 9 NYJ
Week 10 @NE
Week 11 STL
Week 12 @SEA
Week 13 @MIA
Week 14 CLE
Week 15 @CIN
Week 16 @SF
Week 17 PIT