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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 13, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
MIA at BUF* GB at DET* CAR at PHI* DEN at OAK TB at STL
SD at ATL KC at JAX HOU at TEN* PIT at DAL Bye Week:
CIN at CLE* SF at NYJ*   Sun 8:30 PM ARZ, BAL
WAS at CHI* SEA at NE* Times ET MIN at NO IND, NYG
  Seattle Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 0 0 230,1
RB Shaun Alexander 80,1 20 0
TE Jerramy Stevens 0 30 0
WR Darrell Jackson 0 50 0
WR Bobby Engram 0 50,1 0
WR Koren Robinson 0 70 0
PK Josh Brown 1 FG 2 XP -
  New England Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 0 0 240,2
RB Kevin Faulk 10 30 0
RB Corey Dillon 60 10 0
TE Daniel Graham 0 30,1 0
WR David Patten 0 60,1 0
WR Bethel Johnson 0 30 0
WR David Givens 0 60 0
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP -

SEA (3-1) vs NE (4-0)

Game Prediction: SEA 17, NE 20

This was supposed to be the matchup of two undefeated franchises until the Seahawks got sloppy last week likely looking ahead at this matchup.

Update: I am including Bethel Johnson who is expected to play and removing Kevin Kasper. I have also slightly bumped Kevin Faulk's receiving yardage in since he appears to be practicing well again and should figure more into the passing game again.

I am not changing the projectiions for Dillon since they are already fairly low but he is questionable to play with an ankle injury and there is a chance that he may not play - he hasn't been practicing. The Patriots are exceptionally evasive when discussing injuries.

Pre-Game Notes - SEA

Losing a 17 point lead, at home, against the Rams will sting for a while in Seattle but hopefully it will serve to inspire them to play even harder. They'll be needing it this week.

Quarterback: For the second week in a row, Matt Hasselbeck threw for two touchdowns last Sunday but he still has not approached his expected yardage. He's only averaging about 215 yards per game and less than that when on the road.

Running Backs: Shaun Alexander had a huge 150 yard effort against the Rams last week with one touchdown and we all thought the game was over. After lackluster yardage against the Bucs and 49ers, Alexander finally notched his second 100 yard game but both have come against poor rushing defenses (NO and STL). He won't have that luxury this week.

Wide Receivers: The wideouts are starting to follow the same script from last season. Darrell Jackson has the most yardage and scores while Koren Robinson occasionally turns in a nice game but has more dropped passes as touchdowns. Robinson is still in the sights for Hasselbeck though since he had nine passes last week while Jackson only had seven. Jackson just does more with his, like actually catching most of them.

Tight Ends: After a very slow start, Jeremy Stevens has three catches in each of the last two games and scored last week against the Rams. He was considered much improved from last season and is now starting to actually play like it.

Match Against the Defense: After giving up 142 yards to Edgerrin James in week one, the Patriots defense has much improved but that's only been against Emmitt Smith, Travis Henry and Brock Forsey. Shaun Alexander is healthy and needs to post some good yardage this week if the Seahawks hope to stay in the game or get a lead. Look for Alexander to get plenty of work and turn in some decent to good numbers.

Matt Hasselbeck's performance will depend on how well Alexander rushes and the score. If pressed into a heavy passing need, he could likely get 250 yards in the air with a chance for two scores. The only really successful wideout against the Patriots has been the split end like Koren Robinson but he hasn't really generated much confidence. Jackson typically will do better only if because he does more with less than Robinson.

There's also a nice chance that Bobby Engram could figure into the equation since the Patriots often get too aggressive on a blitz and get caught with a man coverage situation on the #3 wideout.

Pre-Game Notes - NE

After 19 consecutive wins, this team is way overdue for a loss. It only seems to motivate them more.

Quarterback: Tom Brady only had 76 yards passing last week against the Dolphins because, basically, that was all he had to do. He still threw two touchdowns and stands at nine scores after only four games. With some problems with keeping healthy wideouts lately, he may not manage a big yardage game here but so far - two touchdowns a game is like a given.

Running Backs: Corey Dillon gained 94 yards on 18 carries before injuring his ankle last week and stepping out of the game for a bit in the fourth quarter. In that non-responsive manner so patented by the Patriots, there is no news on his status other than he could have played last week all game if needed and will probably be fine this week. I am assuming that is true and Bill Belichick will go go great lengths to not tip his hand as to what the truth is.

Patrick Pass was the only other healthy running back on the roster and he had 37 yards on ten carries last week in relief of Dillon. Kevin Faulk is back from a knee injury but is not 100% yet and only had one run and one catch last week.

Wide Receivers: The receivers have been hard hit by injuries lately and it will impact the offense. Deion Branch remains out and Troy Brown was held out with an arm injury. Bethel Johnson also was inactive last week for reasons that no one really seems to know. He was not on the injury report though his last playing time was two weeks ago when he left that game with an "undisclosed" injury. The Patriots are down to using the newly signed Kevin Kasper along with David Givens and David Patten.

I am assuming that Givens and Patten will play but that Brown, Johnson and Branch will not. I will update as information (or in the case of the Patriots - misinformation) is available.

Tight Ends: The injuries to the wideouts have not translated into more throws to the tight ends. Daniel Graham did score a touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game. Graham now has scored in every game this season, including a two touchdown day against the Cardinals. Now there's a preferred endzone target.

Match Against the Defense: The Seahawks secondary had been quite good this year until that fourth quarter lapse against the Rams. Tom Brady should manage his two touchdown pace but his yardage should still remain sub-240 unless the Seahawks should get a lead and force Brady to make up ground quickly.

Daniel Graham has another chance at extending his streak here against a defense that has already allowed the tight ends to score a couple of times this season to far less talented players.

The Seahawks rush defense has been stellar this year, holding every runner to under 64 yards and giving up no rushing touchdowns on the year. This should be a fairly defensive game with the Seahawks bringing a very good ability to hold their opponents score low. Considering that the Patriots are banged up right now, this should be a defensive war more than anything and Corey Dillon, even if healthy is not likely to have more than a moderate game.

SEA NE 2004 Averages NE SEA
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
218
230
Pass yards
232
228
1.5
1.0
Pass TDs
2.3
1.0
0.5
1.3
Interceptions
1.0
2.0
2
11
Rush yards
1
10
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.3
---
---
RB's
---
---
130
94
Rush yards
122
74
1.3
0.5
Rush TDs
0.5
0.0
23
21
Receive yards
16
25
0.5
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
168
166
Receive yards
176
159
0.5
1.0
Receive TD's
1.0
0.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
27
44
Receive yards
40
44
0.5
0.0
Receive TD's
1.3
0.5
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.0
1.0
Field Goals
1.4
0.8
2.2
1.2
Extra Points
2.4
0.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.3
0.8
Fumbles
1.0
0.3
2.0
1.0
Interceptions
1.3
0.5
0.0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.0
3.0
1.3
Sacks
4.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Seahawks (3-1)
Score Opp.
21-7 @NO
10-6 @TB
34-0 SF
Week 4 bye
27-33 STL
Week 6 @NE
Week 7 @ARI
Week 8 CAR
Week 9 @SF
Week 10 @STL
Week 11 MIA
Week 12 BUF
Week 13 DAL
Week 14 @MIN
Week 15 @NYJ
Week 16 ARI
Week 17 ATL
Patriots (4-0)
Score Opp.
27-24 IND
23-12 @ARI
Week 3 bye
31-17 @BUF
24-10 MIA
Week 6 SEA
Week 7 NYJ
Week 8 @PIT
Week 9 @STL
Week 10 BUF
Week 11 @KC
Week 12 BAL
Week 13 @CLE
Week 14 CIN
Week 15 @MIA
Week 16 @NYJ
Week 17 SF