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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 13, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
MIA at BUF* GB at DET* CAR at PHI* DEN at OAK TB at STL
SD at ATL KC at JAX HOU at TEN* PIT at DAL Bye Week:
CIN at CLE* SF at NYJ*   Sun 8:30 PM ARZ, BAL
WAS at CHI* SEA at NE* Times ET MIN at NO IND, NYG
  Washington Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Brunell 0 0 180,1
RB Clinton Portis 90,1 20 0
TE Chris Cooley 0 30 0
WR Lavernues Coles 0 60,1 0
WR Rod Gardner 0 50 0
PK J Hall OR Kimrin 1 FG 2 XP -
  Chicago Rush Catch Pass
QB Jonathan Quinn 0 0 190,1
RB Thomas Jones 80,1 20 0
TE Desmond Clark 0 10 0
WR Justin Gage 0 20,1 0
WR Bobby Wade 0 50 0
WR David Terrell 0 70 0
PK Paul Edinger 0 FG 2 XP -

WAS (1-4) vs CHI (1-3)

Game Prediction: WAS 17, CHI 14

Sadly one of these teams will have to drop yet another game in a season that is quickly getting away from them. The Bears come off a bye and the defense spent the entire week trying to figure out exactly what is was they were supposed to be trying to stop against Washington.

This is a true coin toss game that will be decided by the success of which running back can do the best.

Pre-Game Notes - WAS

Update: John Hall strained his right groin and may not be able to play. Ola Kimrin will likely be added to the team if Hall does not improve. Do not rely on Hall this week.

I have also downgraded the numbers slightly for Coles on the news that his sprained middle finger is still bothering him. He will start and should still be a big part of the offense, but I am concerned slightly that he will have a big game with his hand causing him to drop balls.

Hidden behind a lethargic offense, the Redskins defense has been much improved from last season and kept the team in all games this year. It's just none since week one have been quite good enough to win.

Quarterback: While Mark Brunell had a great game against the Cowboys, he has done little in any other game and only managed 83 yards against the Ravens with a QB rating of only 49.1 last Sunday night. If you disregard the Dallas game, this passing offense has been little better than the Ravens.

There are many rumors floating around that Brunell needs to step aside for Patrick Ramsey but so far Joe Gibbs is adamant that Brunell is the starter.

Running Backs: Clinton Portis is languishing around 55 rushing yards per game and his per carry average worsens each week. He still gets virtually all the carries in the game but hasn't done much with them thanks to poor blocking and what some consider a mismatch between his skills as a slasher and the running scheme that is possibly more suited for a north-south runner.

Wide Receivers: When Brunell only throws for 83 yards, it's a safe bet that even Laveranues Coles will not matter. Coles has two 100 yard games this year and continues to be the primary target for Brunell. Rod Gardner was a major league tease with his stellar 167 yard, two score game in week three but has only four catches for 28 yards total in the past two games. This passing game is just not working when facing even an average secondary.

Tight Ends: Chris Cooley caught his second touchdown of his rookie year last week which ties him with Gardner for the team lead and that's two more scores than Coles has managed. Cooley is a redzone target but doesn't figure into the plans much between the 20's.

Match Against the Defense: If Brunell fails to throw a passing score this week, it will be the first time this season the Bears prevented it. Chicago has given up decent yards in each game to either the run or the pass but never both really other than Minnesota.

Expect a moderate game from Brunell with one passing score but he'll likely remain at or below 200 yards on the road.

This could be a "breakout" game for Portis since the Bears have allowed 100 yard games to both Green and Westbrook. His production will be capped at a moderate level unless Brunell can get the defense to back up a little to respect the pass. With Portis it all relies on the one or two long runs but his chance is as good this week as it has been all year. LB Brian Urlacher should be back which could get in the way.

Pre-Game Notes - CHI

The Bears stumble down to 1-3 but their three losses have come against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles - a pretty tough opener as it ends up and they haven't been blown out in any game this year.

Quarterback: Jonathan Quinn had his first start and turned in a respectable 215 yards and one score against the Eagles. He had no turnovers in the game and was throwing against a defense that already lead and had dropped back to defend against the long pass.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones was held to only 32 yards on 13 carries in the last game thanks to the Eagles pouring it on early and often. He never managed to get into a groove and failed to score for the first time this season. Against the Redskins, expect that Thomas will have 13 carries by halftime if not the second quarter.

Wide Receivers: Quinn connected well with David Terrell who ended with nine catches for 116 yards against Philadelphia. Bobby Wade had 36 yards on four receptions but the wideout totals still lagged considering that Quinn had to throw 43 times in week three.

Tight Ends: In spite of this offense being a variant of the Kansas City model of the west coast, the tight end has yet to figure into the game plan much. Quinn only completed three passes for 12 yards to Clark and Lyman in week three.

Match Against the Defense: By virtue of not being in high scoring games or having much of lead, the Redskins have held the opposing quarterbacks to 230 yards or less and never more than one score. Quinn should likely hit one touchdown pass but nothing more than that since this game will be about Thomas Jones.

That one score is most likely to go to either a tight end - which the Bears have not yet shown to use - or to a #3 wideout since the Redskins just lost safety Matt Bowens for the year. There is an opportunity for Quinn if he can take advantage of it.

Jones faces a decent rushing defense that held Barber to only 42 yards on 18 carries and LB Lavarr Arrington may be back this week after missing Ravens matchup where Jamal Lewis gained 116 tough yards. The main question here is if the Bears defense can control the Redskins and allow Jones to do well by virtue of volume.

WAS CHI 2004 Averages CHI WAS
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
192
259
Pass yards
206
178
1.0
1.3
Pass TDs
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.0
Interceptions
0.8
0.8
11
8
Rush yards
12
-2
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
91
114
Rush yards
98
80
0.4
0.0
Rush TDs
1.0
0.4
27
72
Receive yards
54
32
0.2
0.0
Receive TD's
0.5
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
142
174
Receive yards
120
117
0.4
1.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.4
---
---
TE's
---
---
23
13
Receive yards
31
35
0.4
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.4
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
2.3
Field Goals
1.0
1.0
1.4
1.8
Extra Points
1.5
2.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.6
1.3
Fumbles
0.8
1.4
0.8
0.8
Interceptions
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.8
2.4
2.5
Sacks
1.5
2.4
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.3
0.0
Redskins (1-4)
Score Opp.
16-10 TB
14-20 @NYG
18-21 DAL
13-17 @CLE
10-17 BAL
Week 6 @CHI
Week 7 bye
Week 8 GB
Week 9 @DET
Week 10 CIN
Week 11 @PHI
Week 12 @PIT
Week 13 NYG
Week 14 PHI
Week 15 @SF
Week 16 @DAL
Week 17 MIN
Bears (1-3)
Score Opp.
16-20 DET
21-10 @GB
22-27 @MIN
9-19 PHI
Week 5 bye
Week 6 WAS
Week 7 @TB
Week 8 SF
Week 9 @NYG
Week 10 @TEN
Week 11 IND
Week 12 @DAL
Week 13 MIN
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 HOU
Week 16 @DET
Week 17 GB