FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Last week was another rough week for the touts and the ‘cappers as it was a week of big comebacks by the dogs. Buffalo started it off by scoring two late touchdowns to pull ahead of the Jets only to give it up in the final moments. Houston came back from 21 behind to send the Vikings into overtime. San Francisco got its first win of the season by scoring two late touchdowns and two two-point conversions to take the Cardinals to OT and the freaking Seahawks blew a 17 point lead in the final six minutes to lose at home in overtime (yes, I’m bitter).

Needless to say, it was a tough week for the folks in the Hilton contest once again. The first choice of the players was the Seahawks (140-58 ouch!), followed by the Browns (117-40 doh!). It wasn’t my best week either as my best bets (SEA, CLE, and NYJ) gave it up at the end. In the debut of the handicapping formula the sides went a disappointing 5-7 while the totals kept their winning streak going, but just barely at 7-6 (stupid #$%&ing computer!). With another week of data points the motherboard’s ability should improve or I have an icy Coke just waiting to be spilled on her keyboard (just a little threat…err, joke). Considering the box took three bad beats, I’ll let it slide for now.

There is a slight change to the format this week. In response to overwhelming demand, I’ve included the overall statistics used in the handicapping formula. And let me say that if some of my readers nag their mother/spouse/boy toy the way they’ve complained to me, I understand why their loved ones’ have developed facial twitches. I’ve omitted the usual section on trends as I believe what’s happened through the first third of the season trumps what happened in 1998 anyway. As important trend situations come up (Packers <choke> Lions), I’ll mention them in my commentary. On to the games!

MIAMI AT BUFFALO

Vegas Line

BUF -6 TOTAL 30.5

Predicted Outcome

BUF 14 MIA 7

Records

MIA

SU (0-5-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS AWAY (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-4-1), O/U AWAY (0-1-1)

BUF

SU (0-4-0)

ATS (2-2-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-3-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

One of the big considerations in what should be a low scoring game is the loss of Dolphins PK Olinda Mare. His absence last Sunday against the Patriots probably cost the Dolphins backers the cover last week. With Miami touchdowns coming few and far between, not being able to convert a 40 yard field goal may be the difference in covering or not covering this week in what should be a very low-scoring game.

The field goal issue aside, I’ve never seen a 30 total before. Some of the smaller books are not even putting up the game. Then again, we have the 32 nd ranked offense ( Miami) playing the 28 th ranked offense ( Buffalo) and two pretty good defenses ( Miami is ranked 2 nd in the NFL and Buffalo is great at home), so you wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring.

The motherboard continues to be harsh with the Dolphins, rating them at a -12 on a neutral field. Buffalo came in at -4 making the spread BUF -8 on a neutral field and -12 in upstate New York after home field and a surface advantage is factored in.

I hate taking on a very short total where one mistake, a special teams play or a defender that slips and falls down, can cost you the game, but I’ll take Buffalo and the Under in this contest. While I may bet the game, there isn’t enough No-doze in America to keep me awake if I actually had to watch it.

SAN FRANCISCO AT NY JETS

Vegas Line

NYJ -10 TOTAL 43

Predicted Outcome

NYJ 27 SF 13

Records

SF

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

NYJ

SU (4-0-0)

ATS (3-1-0), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

It’s always tough to lay ten points, but here we have a beaten-up 49ers team going on the road against an undefeated Jets team coming off two divisional games, so it’s sure going to be tempting.

SF lost LB Julian Peterson for the season last week, and considering he’s their best defensive player, you can expect the 49ers defense will continue to struggle for the remainder of the season. On the other side of the ball, SF’s best receiver (TE Eric Johnson) has broken ribs so the NFL catch leader may be limited for a while. Then there are all those injuries to cornerbacks and that’s really bad against Pennington who completes 60% of his passes against healthy secondaries, so the 49ers just may not have the personnel to hang in this game (Side note: its probably a good thing that they got that first win of the season last week, as they may not get another).

The 49ers only chance to stick around oddly rests with the Jets. It’s not if New York will score, but it’s how long it takes them. Week after week, they methodically work their way down the field on long scoring drives that eat up the clock using short passes and the run. I’m not entirely sure New York is going to have enough possessions to win the game by two touchdowns and go over the total in this game. After letting the Bills back into last week’s game and failing to cover (yes, I’m bitter) I don’t trust them not to repeat that mistake either. So I’ll split the baby and pick the Jets to cover and stay under the total. SEATTLE AT NEW ENGLAND

Vegas Line

NE -4 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

SEA 21 NE 17

Records

SEA

SU (3-1-0)

ATS (3-1-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-3-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

NE

SU (4-0-0)

ATS (3-0-1), ATS HOME (1-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (2-1-1), O/U HOME (1-0-1)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETING

Commentary

The Patriots are probably going to have to play without RB Corey Dillon and that may be the difference in this game. New England’s offense has been pretty lethargic in the last two games. The Patriots didn’t put away the Dolphins until late in last week’s snoozer and the week prior they kept Buffalo in the contest far too long. Injuries to Dillon and the receiving corps seem to be affecting the Patriots’ offensive production. New England will need to be better this Sunday if the Patriots are going to keep that winning streak going because Seattle is a big step up in competition from the dregs the Patriots have been playing.

Will the real Seahawk defense please stand up? Are they the defensive monsters their statistics suggest or are they the team that blew a 17-point lead with little more than five minutes left in their game against the Rams? My best guess is the defensive collapse late last week had more to do with terrible clock management (and yes I’m bitter about my losing ticket) and that prevent defense than it did with the personnel or their intensity. I think the way Seattle’s defense played in the first 54 minutes of the game is more representative of the way they will play in this game, so I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt this week. The almighty ‘puter thinks the streak ends here with the game going under the total.

CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA

Vegas Line

PHI -8 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

PHI 24 CAR 13

Records

CAR

SU (1-3-0)

ATS (2-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-3-1), O/U AWAY (0-1-1)

PHI

SU (4-0-0)

ATS (4-0-0), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-3-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Carolina ’s brutal schedule just rolls on. This week the Panthers limp into Philadelphia missing an important component of their rush defense. DT Jenkins will be missing from the line-up again this week. Denver exploited his absence by lining up and running the ball straight at the Panthers’ defense. You can expect that Philadelphia will mix in a little more rush this week and then turn to the play-action passing game. That game plan should generate at least three touchdowns.

If there’s one team that can cover big spreads every week, it’s the Eagles. This is a huge revenge game for Philly to boot as the Eagles will have their NFC Championship loss on their minds, so I’m not terribly concerned that Philadelphia will let up if they get ahead early in this contest. I think the likelihood of a back-door cover by the Panthers will be pretty low given the intensity of this match-up. The Eagles want their revenge and it they break at little china, and hurt a few feelings, oh well.

The mother board thinks this is blow-out city. She’s expecting a big win for the Eagles as well in a game that goes under the total. CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND

Vegas Line

CLE -3 TOTAL 41

Predicted Outcome

CIN 20 CLE 17

Records

CIN

SU (1-3-0)

ATS (0-4-0), ATS AWAY (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

CLE

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

The Bengals have gotten off to a slow and sluggish start in 2004. I had expected them to take a step back this season, but things have gone straight down hill from the opening kick-off week 1. Cincinnati obviously misses QB Jon Kitna’s efficiency and leadership and have struggled with a new starter (Palmer) more than I initially expected, and maybe the week off has helped that situation. The Bengals running game isn’t off to a great start either and Cincinnati’s defense has played badly to start the season. Hmmm, that sounds more like the Bungles we all know and love from the lost decade.

This may be an Alamo game for Cincy as a loss to the Browns will probably sink their playoff chances and may doom the Bengals to yet another losing season so I would expect a decent effort against their cross-state rivals. Then again, going to the window to get a Bengals ticket always gives me the shakes, so I may pass on this game entirely.

The motherboard’s numbers do reflect how badly Cincinnati has played. She makes them a six point dog in Cleveland giving the Browns a field goal worth of line value. Given the situation points one way and the numbers the other, I’ll pass on the sides in this game and take an Under in what should be a hard-fought divisional game.

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT

Vegas Line

DET -2 TOTAL 44.5

Predicted Outcome

DET 24 GB 21

Records

GB

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

DET

SU (3-1-0)

ATS (3-1-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-3-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

Recent Meetings

STATISTICS

Commentary

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Packers, now they have to go on the road to Detroit on a short week to play a must-win game against a Lions’ team that always seems to cover on their home field. Detroit beat a better Packers team on Thanksgiving Day a year ago and will likely give this season’s bumbling version a run for their money as well.

Detroit doesn’t play many games as home favorites, and you have to go a long ways back to find a home game where they were favored over the Packers, so we are in uncharted waters as far as trends go. We do know this season’s numbers, however. The Lions’ offensive numbers are just dreadful, but they’ve won sloppy games on special teams and by forcing turnovers, and just their luck, here comes a Packer team that can’t hold on to the football! Some people just live charmed lives.

Green Bay got embarrassed on Monday night. I would point out the obvious and say the Packers run defense is dreadful, but then you may not notice how bad their secondary has been. Green Bay would love to run the ball, but they’ve gotten so far down so quickly that they’ve had to abandon their game plan early and put the ball in QB Brett Favre’s hand on every down…that may account for a few turnovers, just a guess.

The motherboard gives the nod to the Lions here based on Detroit’s turnover margin and the Packers’ inability to play defense. I don’t like the spot for Detroit coming off a big win against Atlanta on the road, but I can’t support GB right now either. The Packers should yet again make enough mistakes for the Lions to cover the short number with the game going over the total.

WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO

Vegas Line

PICK TOTAL 34

Predicted Outcome

CHI 17 WAS 16

Records

WAS

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS AWAY (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-0-0), O/U AWAY (1-4-0)

CHI

SU (1-3-0)

ATS (2-2-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-0-0), O/U HOME (1-3-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

It’s really hard to like either team in this game. Neither offense has done anything through the first third of the season nor can you count on one hand the number of big plays either team has had. Even the ‘puter had issues with this game and called it more or less a pick.

Chicago is really beaten-up: a change at quarterback, a new starting center, and more injuries of the offensive line will further handicap a Bears’ offense that struggles to score even when they’re healthy. The one thing Chicago can do is run the ball and of course, the one think the Redskins defense does exceedingly well is stop the run. I can’t make a case for the Bears offense getting anything going as they look outmatched against that Washington defense.

Washington isn’t a sure thing as well. If it wasn’t for the Ravens mistakes last Sunday night, the Redskins may not have crossed the 50-yard line. WAS running game has disappeared and QB Brunell looks dazed and confused. The Bears have their share of injuries on defense and that may allow Washington some success on offense, but not much.

This shapes up to be one of the ugly games on the schedule, and both teams have to be thanking a higher power that Miami and Buffalo will look worse on offense this week..but not by much. Take the Under and thank your lucky stars you’re not a season ticket holder for either team.

HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE

Vegas Line

TEN -6.5 TOTAL 46

Predicted Outcome

TEN 31 HOU 24

Records

HOU

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-1-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

TEN

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Tennessee ’s off to a slow start, so what’s new? The Titans seem to struggle out of the game season-after-season and then come on strong in the second two-thirds of the campaign; so, I wasn’t entirely surprised with the tail-kicking of the Packers on Monday night. No, they’re not as good as they showed against a very bad Green Bay defense, but RB Chris Brown looks very solid and he should have a good game again this week against a questionable Texans defense. The Titans wide receivers still drop too many passes for me to be comfortable betting this side week after week, but the Texans aren’t playing that well in the secondary either and there should be enough room for those Tennessee receivers to drop passes 20 yards down the field again this week.

Houston can’t continue to get behind in games if they want to make the playoffs. They can get away with throwing every down against a very weak Viking’s defense when they’re down 21 points, but you’re not going to steal a victory from the Titans if the Texans get behind early. Look for Houston to run the ball early against a Titans defense that’s giving up over five and a half yards per rushing attempt. Houston should be able to move the ball and put up some points as well, and this game should go over the total. The great and might electronic box likes Tennessee and the over as well. SAN DIEGO AT ATLANTA

Vegas Line

ATL -5.5 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

ATL 27 SD 20

Records

SD

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-1-1), ATS AWAY (1-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (4-1-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

ATL

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (1-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

Two teams that no one expected to have winning records six weeks into the season meet and you can make the case that both squads are either over-rated or under-appreciated by the betting public. Atlanta has found a defense and San Diego has found a quarterback in Drew Brees, something no analyst was expecting this summer. Whether you are unconvinced or giving too much respect for either team, this game isn’t likely to settle the argument.

I’m not sure why Atlanta’s having so many problems on offense. QB Michael Vick has uncharacteristically been making mistakes (especially fumbles) and teams are starting to go for the ball when he’s holding it like a loaf of bread. It could be that Vick’s still struggling learning the West Coast offense, and that would make sense given the poor passing numbers. At some point, the Falcons are going to have to cut Vick loose and this may be the week against a questionable Chargers secondary. As we saw last week, Atlanta may not be ready to start laying touchdowns, but that may change if their passing game gets in gear.

San Diego showed they can run the ball on anyone last week against Jacksonville. After powerful offenses such as the Colts, Titans, and Broncos failed to crack that tough defensive nut, the Chargers runningbacks went through the Jaguars defense like they weren’t even there. Atlanta has greatly improved their defense this season but that new 4-3 should be tested in a game I think goes over the total.

The handicapping formula continues to be impressed by Atlanta’s defense. While I personally think that defense will be tested this week, the ‘puter thinks ATL should do well enough to give the Falcons the win and the cover.

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE

Vegas Line

KC -1.5 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

KC 28 JAX 21

Records

KC

SU (1-3-0)

ATS (1-3-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

JAX

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Jacksonville is down to their last defensive ends. The Jag’s are converting their tough defensive tackles into ends (involuntarily, I may add) and that has exposed the center of their defense to the oppositions’ running game, and that’s a bad-thing as we saw against the Chargers last week.

And just their luck, Jacksonville couldn’t have picked a worse time to suddenly struggle against the rush with RB Priest Holmes and the Chiefs coming to town needing a victory. Kansas City’s offensive line showed they could dominate the Ravens defense on the line of scrimmage so they should be able to open rushing lanes in the Jaguars depleted front four.

Jacksonville doesn’t have a lot of weapons on offense, but they may not need them against a Chiefs defense that doesn’t stop anyone. This looks like a high-scoring game to me with Kansas City covering the short number on the road. The motherboard does not concur, however. She likes the Jaguars and the under in this contest. PITTSBURGH AT DALLAS

Vegas Line

DAL -3 TOTAL 38.5

Predicted Outcome

DAL 20 PIT 17

Records

PIT

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-1-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

DAL

SU (2-2-0)

ATS (2-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-2-0), O/U HOME (2-2-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

I like the Cowboys situation here. Pittsburgh has gotten a little fat and happy while playing some struggling football teams over the past few weeks. All four of the Steelers’ victories have come against poor teams that don’t figure to make the playoffs. This week, Pittsburgh goes on the road in Big Ben’s first real road test against a really tough Cowboys defense and we’ll get a much better idea if he is indeed he’s the next coming of Dan Marino. Ben has the weapons to take advantage of a Dallas defense that isn’t playing well in the secondary, but he’ll have to execute the offense in what is the first big game of his NFL career.

The Cowboys look to bounce back after looking just terrible last Sunday against the Giants. Very uncharacteristic for a Parcells’ team, Dallas just can’t seem to get a running game going this season. RB Eddie George isn’t the answer and dropping back and throwing two out of three downs isn’t moving the ball and scoring touchdowns either. That said- this is a Bill Parcells’ kind of game. If you had to pick one coach to lead your underdog squad in a must-win game, you’d pick Parcells. I expect that the Cowboys will leave everything on the field this week.

I may like the Cowboys, but the motherboard is all over the Steelers in this game. Those easy games have pumped up their numbers in the handicapping formula and the spreadsheet has PIT walking out with a straight-up victory on the road.

DENVER AT OAKLAND

Vegas Line

DEN -1.5 TOTAL 43.5

Predicted Outcome

DEN 28 OAK 21

Records

DEN

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (1-2-2), ATS AWAY (0-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (1-3-1), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

OAK

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Typically, this is a series that brings out the best in both teams. Denver HC Mike Shanahan loves beating Oakland who cut him lose to go to the Broncos and Oakland tends to play its best football in this game as well. That said you’re now hearing the same rumblings you heard from this Raider squad just before their death-spiral at the end of last season so you have to wonder if the team’s recent struggles are now hitting critical mass. If that happens, the Raiders are a bet against team the rest of the way including this game.

After two bad road games that were filled with interceptions, fumbles, and penalties Oakland limps into this game with serious questions on offense. QB Kerry Collins had great match-ups the past two weeks against Houston’s and Indianapolis’ defense and looked awful. Now he has to face the NFL’s number one defense and there’s no guarantee that the Raiders will be able to pass the football if their running game, that had just 55 yards against the Colts, disappears again this week. Raiders’ backers justifiably cringe at the thought of putting the game on Collins’ shoulders.

Then again, I wouldn’t be sleeping well at night if I had big money behind QB Jake Plummer either. Some of the mistakes he makes (like the interception that cost the Broncos a cover last week) just make me tear my hair out. It’s very hard to back him when he’s throwing back-to-back interceptions with the wrong hands or chasing down defensive ends after throwing a 101-yard interceptions. The Broncos out-gained the Panthers by over 200 yards and yet were life and death at the end of the game. That does not inspire a lot of confidence in the betting line.

The electronic box says Denver by a touchdown in this game. Looking at the series history, I can’t argue with that assessment. I’ll take Denver and the over here. MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS

Vegas Line

MIN -3.5 TOTAL 51

Predicted Outcome

MIN 35 NO 21

Records

MIN

SU (3-1-0)

ATS (2-2-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-1-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

NO

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS HOME (0-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Only the Saints can look great one week and then lose two straight games against the Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buc’s while doing absolutely nothing on offense. There are two glaring weaknesses with New Orleans, QB Brooks and that defense. Brooks can play at times, but not against a solid defense and the Saints defense hasn’t shown up yet this season.

The good news is Minnesota is just as poor defensively as New Orleans. Blowing that huge lead last Sunday against the Texans was textbook Vikings. Every year you look for Minnesota to improve on defense and every year they finish in the bottom five statistically. Oh well, what’s new. New Orleans should be able to move up and down the field with Deuce back in the line-up and more balance on offense this week.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that that 51 point total may not be nearly enough as this game has a good chance of finishing in the 60’s if the Saints offense can contribute their fair share of points. I’m betting the Vikings defense is the medicine the Saints need and this game goes flying over the total.

TAMPA BAY AT ST LOUIS

Vegas Line

STL -6.5 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

Records

TB

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (1-3-1), ATS AWAY (1-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

STL

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

STATISTICS

Recent Meetings

Commentary

I’m sure this game sounded a lot more exciting last summer than it does this week. Madden may be cleaning the horse trailer after where done with this stinker.

Tampa Bay will be cutting cards to determine who starts at quarterback and you know two of the participants will end up sulking on the sidelines after they lose the draw. I’m just not loving all the drama on a team that comes off its first win of the season (albeit against the Saints). Somehow, winning should be a good thing for everyone, not a signal for your former starting QB to ask to be cut from the team. Starting quarterbacks tend to be bell-weathers for their teammates and I’m getting signals about how Chuckie and the boys are getting along, and none of them are good. It should be happy-happy, joy-joy after the Buc’s first win of the season and it’s not and that’s a problem.

Now TB have to go on the road and play on turf against a Rams team that regained some of their swagger after coming from behind to get an exciting road win in Seattle (yes, I’m still bitter). It’s not a great spot for either team as you have to think letdown game for both teams. The ‘box thinks Rams by a touchdown and I think ugly game going under the total.

College Thoughts (In no particular order)
Minnesota/Michigan State (over)
UAB
Akron
Wisconsin
Iowa/Ohio State (under)
USC
Navy
Memphis
UTEP