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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 7
October 20, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
BUF at BAL ATL at KC CHI at TB* SEA at ARZ* DEN at CIN
SD at CAR* STL at MIA* Sun 4 PM NO at OAK* Bye Week:
JAX at IND* DET at NYG* NYJ at NE Times ET HOU, PIT
PHI at CLE* TEN at MIN* DAL at GB *updated SF, WAS
  Dallas Rush Catch Pass
QB V. Testaverde 0 0 250,1
RB Eddie George 40,1 10 0
RB Richie Anderson 30 20 0
TE Jason Witten 0 40,1 0
WR Keyshawn Johnson 0 60 0
WR Terry Glenn 0 80 0
WR Quincy Morgan 0 20 0
PK Bill Cundiff 1 FG 2 XP -
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 260,3
RB Ahman Green 70 10 0
RB Najeh Davenport 10 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 10 0
WR Javon Walker 0 100,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 80,1 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 50,1 0
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 3 XP -

DAL (2-3) vs GB (2-4)

Game Prediction: DAL 17, GB 27

Two teams that are disappointed with their season meet and it all depends on which versions show up. Every game is a must win for both franchises and while the Packers have a far better offense on paper, they are also on a three game losing streak at home. That's enough to keep the cheese hat in the closet for a week or two.

Pre-Game Notes - DAL

The Cowboys come off their second consecutive loss by allowing the Steelers to take a fumble and turn it into a Bettis touchdown. The lack of a rushing game by Dallas is proving their undoing because the secondary can hold up only so long.

Quarterback: Vinny Testaverde is still playing well enough within the Parcells system, he comes off a 284 yard effort against the Steelers with one touchdown and one very costly fumble. Even though he has thrown for good yardage in several games this year, he still has exactly one touchdown pass every week. That's not enough when the running game is lethargic.

Running Backs: Hopefully that extra first round draft pick next year will end up paying off for the Cowboys passing on Steven Jackson last April. While we will never know what a healthy Julius Jones might have done this year, we do know that Eddie George is definitely not the answer. He ran for only 28 yards last week on ten carries and the best runner was actually the aging Richie Anderson (6-54, 1 TD) because the Steelers guessed wrongly that the Cowboys were about to pass. ReShard Lee ran twice for a three yard loss last week and shows why he was not drafted this year.

The control style of offense the Cowboys prefer is being short circuited by the lack of a ground attack that can close games. it is likely to be the Achilles heel for the offense unless something unforeseen happens.

Wide Receivers: The Cowboys prefer a rotation system on their wideouts, meaning that not one of the big three will have consecutive big games. Last week Terry Glenn had 140 yards versus 24 yards the previous week. The closest to any consistency is Keyshawn Johnson in the possession role since he has had scores in each of the last two games but he still caps out around 50 or 60 yards in almost all games.

Antonio Bryant has been traded to the Browns in exchange for Quincy Morgan straight up which says both just needed a change of scenery. Since Bryant is the #3 wideout, I will include Morgan for now but update as more informaion is apparent.

Tight Ends: Jason Witten has never had less than three catches in a game this season and had five catches in each of the last two games for around 40 yards.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers have allowed every opponent to throw at least one score so consider Vinny as good for his standard. He could turn in better than normal yardage and even a second score if the Cowboys fall too far behind or are unable to exploit a weak rushing defense.

The Packers have given up six rushing touchdowns in the past five games and allowed some major yardage as well but the Cowboys do not have any single runner capable of shouldering a big load. Look for more of the sharing to produce at least moderate results but Favre would have to start throwing a lot of interceptions and the Cowboys get a big lead before the running game will likely receive the needed volume to make George a decent fantasy starter this week.

There is no real pattern of success for the receivers against the Packers. There is a good chance that the score will go to either Witten or Glenn but it truly could go to Johnson since it will be a single play event. Other than the Colts, there hasn't been any big games by receivers against the Packers but mainly because opponents are having too much fun running the ball.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

The Packers lose by 21 at home and then win by 28 on the road. Sure. There is some consistency. The lone factor swinging this game is that the odds that there is a fourth straight loss at home is statistically unlikely. Then again, so is the Packers place in the standings.

Quarterback: When Brett Favre is not throwing three interceptions like he did against the Titans, he looks like the big gun he always has been. In Detroit, he had no turnovers and ended with 257 yards and two scores. He's thrown a touchdown in every game and now faces a secondary that has delighted most opponents.

Running Backs: On the plus side, Ahman Green never fumbled last week. But he only gained 81 yards on 21 carries and never scored for the fifth straight game. Najeh Davenport had ten carries last week and managed 62 yards and a touchdown. The rushing game has not really looked good except in games that Davenport has played but he is back now and evidently capable of stealing yards and scores from Green who doesn't have enough to be sharing in the first place.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver has really returned to 2002 form lately. He has 19 catches for 260 yards and two scores in just the last two weeks. Javon Walker only had two catches for 62 yards last week but that included a nice 50-yarder and he banged up his shoulder in the second quarter.

Antonio Chatman replaced Robert Ferguson last week and his five catches for 50 yards was better than what Ferguson had posted in his previous four games. Until more is known, I am considering Ferguson as out again this week and Chatman to fill in. He should be regardless of Ferguson's health anyway.

Tight Ends: While Bubba Franks had two scores against the Titans (like all tight ends), he returned to his more typical output with only 19 yards last week.

Match Against the Defense: Ahman Green should have a tough time reaching 100 yards again this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed only Barber to look that good. Green should be good for moderate yardage and a few catches but that's not how Dallas is being beaten lately. It will take a significant and early lead by the Packers to likely grant Green enough carries for a big game.

Favre faces a secondary that only has experienced two road games and gave up seven touchdowns and 567 passing yards in those matchups. In fairness, it was Minnesota in one but even Washington was able to look like they had a passing offense for once this season.

Expect that Favre turns in one of his better efforts this week against a team that not only has been ravaged by injuries on the right corner, even the "good" side of Terrence Newman has been giving up the long ball lately.

DAL GB 2004 Averages GB DAL
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
260
240
Pass yards
278
214
1.2
2.2
Pass TDs
2.0
2.0
0.8
0.6
Interceptions
1.3
0.8
0
13
Rush yards
4
15
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
92
130
Rush yards
104
108
0.8
1.2
Rush TDs
0.5
0.3
32
40
Receive yards
50
49
0.0
0.8
Receive TD's
0.3
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
191
173
Receive yards
207
142
0.8
1.4
Receive TD's
1.5
1.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
44
33
Receive yards
24
32
0.4
0.2
Receive TD's
0.3
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.0
0.8
Field Goals
1.0
1.8
2.0
3.8
Extra Points
2.8
1.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.2
1.4
Fumbles
0.3
1.0
0.6
1.6
Interceptions
0.7
1.0
0.0
0.2
Touchdowns
0.2
0.0
2.8
0.6
Sacks
1.3
1.3
0.2
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Cowboys (2-3)
Score Opp.
17-35 @MIN
19-12 CLE
21-18 @WAS
Week 4 bye
10-26 NYG
20-24 PIT
Week 7 @GB
Week 8 DET
Week 9 @CIN
Week 10 PHI
Week 11 @BAL
Week 12 CHI
Week 13 @SEA
Week 14 NO
Week 15 @PHI
Week 16 WAS
Week 17 @NYG
Packers (2-4)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
38-10 @DET
Week 7 DAL
Week 8 @WAS
Week 9 bye
Week 10 MIN
Week 11 @HOU
Week 12 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI