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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 7
October 20, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
BUF at BAL ATL at KC CHI at TB* SEA at ARZ* DEN at CIN
SD at CAR* STL at MIA* Sun 4 PM NO at OAK* Bye Week:
JAX at IND* DET at NYG* NYJ at NE Times ET HOU, PIT
PHI at CLE* TEN at MIN* DAL at GB *updated SF, WAS
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 10 0 300,2
RB Fred Taylor 70 30 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 20 0
TE Todd Yoder 0 20 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 100,1 0
WR Cortez Hankton 0 20 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 60 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 30,1 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP -
  Indianapolis Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 0 0 260,2
RB Edgerrin James 90,1 20 0
TE Marcus Pollard 0 20 0
TE Dallas Clark 0 20 0
WR Marvin Harrison 0 60,1 0
WR Brandon Stokley 0 50 0
WR Reggie Wayne 0 70,1 0
PK Mike Vanderjagt 3 FG 3 XP -

JAX (4-2) vs IND (4-1)

Game Prediction: JAX 17, IND 30

The Colts already defeated the Jaguars in week four to start the J'ville tumble. If they can win 24-17 as visitors, no reason why they cannot come off a bye week, at home, and repeat the feat.

Update: I am not changing the numbers for Leftwich though he is still questionable on the injury report. He has returned to practice and is expected to play. I am expecting that he has plenty of chances to post some trash time numbers as well.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

The Jaguars are no longer relying on only their defense to win games which is good since the schedule has toughened up. Leftwich is on a hot streak and he'll need to be even hotter this week.

Quarterback: After starting out with the games of sub-150 yard efforts, Byron Leftwich now has three straight games of over 298 yards. He's thrown for touchdowns in each and had two against the Chiefs. He's also ran in a touchdown in both of the last two games. He's coming into his own now and is spreading the ball around very well in the process.

Leftwich suffered a sprained ankle and needed a walking boot on Monday, but is expected to play. Updates if warranted.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor comes off yet another poor showing on the ground, rushing for only 66 yards on 19 carries last week against the Chiefs and his season high is only 81 yards. Thanks to Leftwich running in scores, he doesn't even get the touchdown carries anymore. Taylor did have 74 yards and a score via the pass last week which is becoming a more frequent part of the game plan during this acceleration in Leftwich's production.

Wide Receivers: While Leftwich has posted three straight big yardage games, it really has not benefited any wideout other than Jimmy Smith who has scored twice and is averaging around 85 yards a week now. The "hot" rookie Reggie Williams has been a non-factor and had no catches last week while the second best wideout was Cortez Hankton with only 28 yards (but one score). There is little fantasy value here outside of Smith in spite of the 300 yard passing games.

Tight Ends: They've only scored once all year and none get more than 30 yards a game if that. Marginal fantasy value at best.

Match Against the Defense: The last meeting between these teams resulted in Leftwich having his first 300 yard game of the year and set in motion his string of big efforts. Expect that he'll again need to throw and be probably better at it this week. The only wideout worth caring about here is Jimmy Smith who had 59 yards and the only score last time.

Fred Taylor had 99 total yards in their last meeting but only 68 were rushing and that required 21 carries to get there. Expect Taylor to shoulder a fairly heavy load early on to try to keep the game in control but for the second half to turn more to the pass which will still involve him.

Pre-Game Notes - IND

The Jaguars were holding all opponents to a single touchdown until they met the Colts and the offense is likely to be even better this time around. In their previous match-up, we referred to the defense that allows no scores against the offense that cannot stop. Now - it's just the Colts who still cannot stop scoring. A win here gives the Colts a two game lead in the AFC South and that fact has not been overlooked as they prepared the last two weeks.

Quarterback: The season has been pure Manning - no wonder why his brother was so coveted in the draft. He'll be above average if he proves to only be half the quarterback of his big brother. Peyton Manning was held to only 220 yards in week four but he still had two touchdowns - he has never done less so far this season.

Running Backs: Facing the tough Jaguars defense last time meant that Edgerrin James only managed 108 total yards and one touchdown. He only had 19 carries in that game - his lowest game total of the season. Then again, he did let Dominic Rhodes have five carries that week as well. Coming off a restful bye week, James should be ready for more heavy-duty use.

Wide Receivers: The last meeting between these teams was a low output game for the big names. Marvin Harrison only had four catches for 45 yards and one score while Reggie Wayne was still having problems on the road when he ended with only two receptions for 20 yards. Brandon Stokley once again was the difference maker that week when he had eight catches for 97 yards.

The Colts have not been passing much against the Jaguars in recent games, but a controlled rushing attack has been enough so far to secure the wins.

Tight Ends: Marcus Pollard had the touchdown in the last game against the Jaguars while Dallas Clark had no catches. But Clark remains a target and had a score back in week five on his only catch. Other than Clark's 64 yards in the first game of the season, the tight ends have only been used on occasion for touchdown throws and spend more time blocking.

Match Against the Defense: The main difference between this game and the one in week four is that the Colts at home should be able to run more effectively and I like Wayne to turn in some decent numbers since he still performs better at home.

JAX IND 2004 Averages IND JAX
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
227
313
Pass yards
264
195
1.2
1.8
Pass TDs
2.8
1.0
0.7
1.2
Interceptions
0.6
0.4
10
1
Rush yards
4
7
0.3
0.2
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
84
92
Rush yards
128
114
0.3
0.4
Rush TDs
1.2
0.8
40
42
Receive yards
23
42
0.2
0.0
Receive TD's
0.4
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
161
218
Receive yards
216
120
0.8
1.4
Receive TD's
1.8
0.2
---
---
TE's
---
---
27
53
Receive yards
25
42
0.2
0.4
Receive TD's
0.6
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.8
1.4
Field Goals
0.8
1.6
1.3
2.2
Extra Points
4.2
1.6
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.5
0.6
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.6
Interceptions
1.2
0.8
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.2
0.0
1.8
0.6
Sacks
2.2
2.0
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jaguars (4-2)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
15-12 @TEN
17-24 IND
21-34 @SD
22-16 KC
Week 7 @IND
Week 8 @HOU
Week 9 bye
Week 10 DET
Week 11 TEN
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 PIT
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK
Colts (4-1)
Score Opp.
24-27 @NE
31-17 @TEN
45-31 GB
24-17 @JAX
35-14 OAK
Week 6 bye
35-14 JAX
Week 8 @KC
Week 9 MIN
Week 10 HOU
Week 11 @CHI
Week 12 @DET
Week 13 TEN
Week 14 @HOU
Week 15 BAL
Week 16 SD
Week 17 @DEN