FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

First, my apologies for a somewhat abbreviated version of my opening commentary this week. The flu bug has decided to pay my home a visit and typing late at night will most certainly draw the ire of the domestic goddess who prefers to enjoy her Nyquil high without the tap-tap-tap of my keyboard coming from the study. Trust me, the site of the significant other with rollers in her hair and a box of tissues in hand is enough to put the fear of God in anyone, so I shall not tempt fate by lingering past my normal 1:30 am writing time. Assuming that her highness is back in good princess form, my usual commentary will return next week. Now on to the games!

ATLANTA AT KANSASCITY

Vegas Line

KC -4 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

ATL 23 KC 17

Records

ATL

SU (5-1-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-5-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

KC

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

One common opponent here, Atlanta beat Carolina in North Carolina 27-10 while KC lost to Carolina 17-28 at Arrowhead. Not surprising as Atlanta is 5-1 SU while KC is 1-4.

So, exactly why is a 1-4 Chiefs team laying points to a 5-1 Falcons squad? I have no idea. Thank you John Q. Public..all the Chiefs had to do was win one lousy game, and now the public’s back on the KC bandwagon and this line keeps going up and up. Sorry guys, you’re wrong. Kansas City loses their games by nearly a touchdown while the Falcons are winning by five points and you’re laying points with the Chiefs? I don’t think so. Atlanta should be the next team to move the ball with impunity against a toothless Chiefs defense. I know the Falcons aren’t an offensive juggernaut right now, but they have enough to score on this defense.

Kansas City couldn’t come up with the big effort last week when they really needed it, they won’t get it here either. The computer says Atlanta as a road dog wins outright with the game going under the total, so give me points with the better football team and I’ll have a smile on my face when I cash my ticket.

BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE

Vegas Line

BAL -6 TOTAL 31.5

Predicted Outcome

BAL 21 BUF 17

Records

BUF

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

BAL

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (2-0-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

There’s a significant difference in scheduling here as Buffalo has had the much harder go of it so far. The Bills have faced the Jag’s, Raiders, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins while the Ravens have faced the Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Chiefs, and Redskins so the statistics are a bit misleading.

I like the Bills and the Over in this game. Buffalo finally got off the goose-egg so their spirits should be lifted to a degree. There also is a rumor flying around the sports books that the Bills owner has been unhappy with his team’s stodgy offense and has put in a request to open up the offense. Not that I’m overly excited about the prospects of QB Drew Bledsoe throwing the ball more, but when the opposing QB is Boller, I guess I can live with that. Buffalo is the more talented team, and with RB Jamal Lewis out of the Ravens line-up more of the Ravens offense will fall on Boller which isn’t a good thing. So I can’t make a case for the Ravens laying that many points.

Running the numbers, the computer makes the Ravens a five point favorite on their home field. But as those numbers were run up with Lewis on the field, I would make a two-point adjustment towards Buffalo in this case. That makes the game Ravens -3 which I think is a better line here. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if you had a defensive score in this game as well as a special team’s touchdown by the Ravens.

CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY

Vegas Line

TB -6.5 TOTAL 33

Predicted Outcome

TB 20 CHI 6

Records

CHI

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

TB

SU (1-5-0)

ATS (1-4-1), ATS HOME (0-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (2-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Zzzzzzz…oh, is there a game on? In what looks like a huge snoozer, the Chicago Bears, probably starting their third quarterback of the season, go south to play a Buc’s team coming off a Monday night loss to the Rams.

Tampa Bay ’s defense may have taken a step back with all the changes in the off=season, but it’s not the best spot to have a rookie QB make his first start. Chicago will go back to running the ball, and will be upside down in yards, first downs, and points to a Tampa Bay team that seems to have found a spark with Griese at QB. It’s really hard to see the Bears doing anything in this game a week after struggling against the Redskins defense, but I think Chicago has enough defense to keep the Buc’s offense in check as well. Great spot with Tampa Bay who have played well enough to win lately, take the Under and the Bucs in the contest and load up on No-doze before kickoff.

DETROIT AT NY GIANTS

Vegas Line

NYG -6.5 TOTAL 40

Predicted Outcome

NYG 24 DET 14

Records

DET

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

NYG

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (4-1-0), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

Well, the real Lions finally showed up (the word fraud comes to mind). After living on special teams play and forcing opposition turnovers the Kittys’ luck finally ended last Sunday. Detroit’s offense finally played to its potential and put up five, that’s right five, first downs against the Packers’ defense that’s played speed bump for most of the season. Looking at the Lions’ statistics, that huge 707 yardage differential sticks out like a sore thumb so, yep five first downs looks about right. If you think Roy Williams isn’t the rookie WR of the year, just look at this Lions’ offense without him in the line-up.

New York comes off a bye week and should be healthier for this week’s game. I hate laying points with a team off a bye week that I think is substantially over rated and may come out flat against an overmatched club, but I don’t think the Lions two game road winning streak will continue past this game either. Not a play I’m interested in, but I’ll take the Giants and lay nearly a touchdown in a game that goes under the total.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

Vegas Line

IND -9.5 TOTAL 45.5

Predicted Outcome

IND 31 JAX 20

Records

JAX

SU (4-2-0)

ATS (4-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-5-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

IND

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (4-0-1), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

First, the Colts have won four of the last five, so I think it’s safe to assume Indianapolis will win this game. Indianapolis is winning their games and covering by margin this season with the average score being 31-21 for a 10 point margin including the painful loss to the Patriots to start the season. Throw out that three point loss to New England and the Colts have won games 31-17, 45-31, 24-17, and 35-14 for spreads of +14, +14, +7, and +21. I know Jacksonville has a good defense and owns the 24-17 game in Florida, but the Colts are winning and covering by margin an there’s no way I’m stepping in front of that train. Give me Indianapolis and the over here.

PHILADELPHIA AT CLEVELAND

Vegas Line

PHI -7 TOTAL 41.5

Predicted Outcome

PHI 27 CLE 14

Records

PHI

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (5-0-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

CLE

SU (3-3-0)

ATS (3-3-0), ATS HOME (3-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-4-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

If you want to get in front of this Eagles’ train be my guest, but I won’t be there with you. This team is undefeated SU and against the spread winning by double-digits in every game. Yes they give up rushing yards, but the Eagles are ahead so early (think first half bet here) that opponents’ have to give up their rushing game early.

You’re paying a pretty good premium here in Cleveland where they Browns have played well all season, but you just have to wonder, looking at the numbers, if the Browns have enough fire-power to stay with the Eagles in a shootout. QB Jeff Garcia is feuding with the coaching staff, his offensive line, and now there’s a change in the receiving corps with Antonio Bryant coming in by trade, and he’s not considered a team guy either. I just don’t like the chemistry on this team right now, so there’s no way I’m backing the Browns this week.

I think the right bet here is to take the Eagles in the first half and take the back-door cover out of the equation. That also gets me under a touchdown spread, which I’m more comfortable laying on the road in any case. I think the total is just about right, with maybe a slight edge to the Under.

SAN DIEGO AT CAROLINA

Vegas Line

CAR -3 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

SD 21 CAR 14

Records

SD

SU (3-3-0)

ATS (4-1-1), ATS AWAY (2-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

CAR

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-4-1), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

I’m shocked the Chargers aren’t the favorite in this contest with Carolina RB Stephen Davis questionable with a knee that’s getting drained almost every day.

San Diego makes its second cross country trip in consecutive weeks and they should be travel weary. Their offense is LT on the ground and Gates through the air. Losing Reche is a pretty big hit, and bringing in two veteran WRs is a band aid, but after only three days of practice, McCardell and sidekick aren’t going to know this offense.

The spot really favors Carolina coming off the big loss to the Eagles and San Diego playing road warrior again. However, I don’t think the Panthers have anything left in the tank. Give me the Chargers and the points with the game going under the total.

ST LOUIS AT MIAMI

Vegas Line

STL -7 TOTAL 37.5

Predicted Outcome

STL 20 MIA 14

Records

STL

SU (4-2-0)

ATS (3-3-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-1-0)

MIA

SU (0-6-0)

ATS (1-5-0), ATS HOME (0-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-1), O/U HOME (0-3-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

This looks to me to be the mother of all let-down games. St Louis comes off a hard fought Monday night game to go on the road to win-less Miami. The Rams played well, and the public has jumped back on the bandwagon, especially after St Louis covered in a game they probably shouldn’t have won against Tampa Bay, and came back against Seattle to win on the road, while Miami drew heavy support against Buffalo and failed to cover again last week. If you’ve been waiting for a week where the Dolphins will have value, your ship just came in.

The Dolphins finally have a game where there isn’t a coaching miss-match. The incapable Dave (soon to be ex-head coach) W. matching wits (and I’m really stretching here) with throw-it-60-times Marts meaning the 32 nd best head coach is facing the 31 st best, and I’m hoping the casino has props on most time-outs used in the 3 rd quarter, most delay of game penalties, and most time teams fail on 3 rd and 1 and 4 th and 1 which adds to the entertainment value for what should be a comedy of errors.

I think every tout in Vegas will be on this play, but give me the Dolphins and he under. Send in the clowns!

TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA

Vegas Line

MIN -7 TOTAL 54

Predicted Outcome

MIN 34 TEN 27

Records

TEN

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U AWAY (2-1-0)

MIN

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-1-0), O/U HOME (2-0-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Tennessee looked really sluggish in a lost to Houston off a Monday night victory over the Packers. I think Tennessee bounces back off that bad performance and has a pretty good offensive day this week. That means shoot-out me as we know Minnesota’s offense is hitting on all cylinders with QB Dante Culpepper throwing for five touchdowns every week.

The previous meeting in this series was a 42-24 offensive stampede won by Minnesota. This contest may not get to the 66 total points mark set by that game, but this contest is going over this 54 point total. I’m not sure that the Titans have all the weapons necessary to hang around the way New Orleans did, but I’m not going to lay a touchdown against Steve McNair as an underdog either. Give me the Over and I’ll pass on the sides.

NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND

Vegas Line

NE -6 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

NE 21 NYJ 14

Records

NYJ

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

NE

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (4-0-1), ATS HOME (2-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (3-1-1), O/U HOME (2-0-1)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

For a team that wins every game and covers, the Patriots just can’t get any respect from the betting public. Admittedly, I was on Seattle last week in what was clearly the wrong side of that contest. But after watching the Patriots race out to a 17-point lead last Sunday, I knew one of those teams had big-game experience, and I had the other team!

I’m not making that mistake two weeks in a row. Yes, New England will fail to cover one of these week and I’ll lose money, but that’s only going to happen once. Until that time comes, save a seat for me on the bandwagon as I play the Patriots this week.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY

Vegas Line

GB -3.5 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

GB 24 DAL 14

Records

DAL

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

GB

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS HOME (0-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

A tale of two teams that need a win last week…one team showed up and the other never unpacked. Green Bay surprised everyone by shutting out the Lions offense, limiting Detroit to only five first downs as the Packers romped under the roof at Ford Field. Dallas looked terrible against a rookie quarterback at home in a game they had to win to keep pace with the high-flying Eagles. That sent me a strong signal for this contest, the Packers have their problems but they have the strength to come together when it’s jock-check time and Dallas without a running game is dead in the water.

I really don’t think this game will be that close. If you watched the Cowboys offense last week, you saw Vinny T. making the big mistake every time he got pressure, and without a running game, he’s a sitting duck back there in the pocket. The problem is, you can hurt Green Bay if you can run the ball. If you’re like Detroit and can’t run, then the Green Bay blitz is a heck of a lot more effective and you’re on the wrong end of a lop-sided score line. We know the Cowboys can’t run, therefore it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s likely to happen here. Give me the Packers with the game going under the total.

NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND

Vegas Line

OAK -3 TOTAL 44.5

Predicted Outcome

NO 28 OAK 24

Records

NO

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (1-5-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

OAK

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS HOME (1-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

What do you get when you put together two of the most undisciplined teams in the National Football League? The answer is a big, fat over.

As we saw against the Vikings, the Saints can score if you match them against a bad defense. Worse, the Saints defense didn’t even force the Minnesota offense to punt once in that game. That spells high scoring game here as both team take out their recent frustrations on the weak opposing defense. Both sides are going to throw the football down the field and I’d put the over/under for total interceptions at six, so if you like big plays, this is your cup-of-tea. Oakland can’t run the ball, and they may not need or want to here. New Orleans showed last week that they’re more than up for a shoot-out. Get your tickets now as this totals only going up from here, give me the Saints and the over in this contest.

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA

Vegas Line

SEA -7 TOTAL 41

Predicted Outcome

SEA 27 ARI 10

Records

SEA

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

ARI

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Seattle just pounds the Cardinals. Looking at the last three score lines, the Seahawks have outscored Arizona 92-16. And guess what, Arizona gets a really ticked off Seahawk team coming off two painful losses. I think Arizona has enough defense to keep this game under the total, but it’s going to be 60 minutes of pain in the desert.

DENVER AT CINCINNATI

Vegas Line

DEN -8 TOTAL 43.5

Predicted Outcome

DEN 23 CIN 16

Records

DEN

SU (5-1-0)

ATS (2-2-2), ATS AWAY (1-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-1), O/U AWAY (0-3-0)

CIN

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (0-5-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

Recent Meetings

Commentary

The number 32 rushing defense ( Cincinnati) against the number one rushing offense ( Denver), ouch! If you were bored with last week’s performance by the Ponies in Oakland (pound, pound, pound), there’s no point in tuning into this game because Denver is going to run the ball 30, 35, 40 times in this game ripping holes in the porous Cincinnati defense.

I really hate laying more than a touchdown on the road. That always seems to jump up and bite you, so if you like the Broncos, you might want to look at the first half line and take the backdoor cover out of the picture. I just can’t see how Cincinnati is going to stay in this contest long, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they made a run at the end with all that talent at the WR position.

I think Denver running the ball with shorten this game significantly, I really like the under in this contest as Denver’ games score 33 points per game and Bengals’ games score 41 points per game, both averages well under this week’s total of 43.5.