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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Inside The Points - Week 7
Fritz Schlottman
October 22, 2004

First, my apologies for a somewhat abbreviated version of my opening commentary this week. The flu bug has decided to pay my home a visit and typing late at night will most certainly draw the ire of the domestic goddess who prefers to enjoy her Nyquil high without the tap-tap-tap of my keyboard coming from the study. Trust me, the site of the significant other with rollers in her hair and a box of tissues in hand is enough to put the fear of God in anyone, so I shall not tempt fate by lingering past my normal 1:30 am writing time. Assuming that her highness is back in good princess form, my usual commentary will return next week. Now on to the games!

ATLANTA AT KANSASCITY

Vegas Line

KC -4 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

ATL 23 KC 17

Records

ATL

SU (5-1-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-5-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

KC

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (1-4-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

ATLANTA

 

KANSAS CITY

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

103

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

101

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

100

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

97

RUSHES

187

RUSHES

154

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

149

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

144

RUSH YDS GAINED

883

RUSH YDS GAINED

699

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

447

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

632

PASS ATTEMPTS

131

PASS ATTEMPTS

160

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

202

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

136

PASS YDS GAINED

934

PASS YDS GAINED

1014

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1337

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1020

TURNOVERS LOST

11

TURNOVERS LOST

5

OPP TURNOVERS REC

12

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

POINTS SCORED

119

POINTS SCORED

105

POINTS ALLOWED

86

POINTS ALLOWED

132

TOTAL PLAYS

318

TOTAL PLAYS

314

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

351

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

280

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-33

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

34

TOTAL YARDS

1817

TOTAL YARDS

1713

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1784

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1652

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

33

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

61

YDS Per Rush

4.72

YDS Per Rush

4.54

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.00

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.39

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.13

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.34

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.62

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.50

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

One common opponent here, Atlanta beat Carolina in North Carolina 27-10 while KC lost to Carolina 17-28 at Arrowhead. Not surprising as Atlanta is 5-1 SU while KC is 1-4.

So, exactly why is a 1-4 Chiefs team laying points to a 5-1 Falcons squad? I have no idea. Thank you John Q. Public..all the Chiefs had to do was win one lousy game, and now the public’s back on the KC bandwagon and this line keeps going up and up. Sorry guys, you’re wrong. Kansas City loses their games by nearly a touchdown while the Falcons are winning by five points and you’re laying points with the Chiefs? I don’t think so. Atlanta should be the next team to move the ball with impunity against a toothless Chiefs defense. I know the Falcons aren’t an offensive juggernaut right now, but they have enough to score on this defense.

Kansas City couldn’t come up with the big effort last week when they really needed it, they won’t get it here either. The computer says Atlanta as a road dog wins outright with the game going under the total, so give me points with the better football team and I’ll have a smile on my face when I cash my ticket.

BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE

Vegas Line

BAL -6 TOTAL 31.5

Predicted Outcome

BAL 21 BUF 17

Records

BUF

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

BAL

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (2-0-0)

Statistics

BUFFALO

 

BALTIMORE

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

83

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

73

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

85

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

87

RUSHES

139

RUSHES

164

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

123

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

152

RUSH YDS GAINED

517

RUSH YDS GAINED

750

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

451

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

517

PASS ATTEMPTS

138

PASS ATTEMPTS

109

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

158

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

169

PASS YDS GAINED

898

PASS YDS GAINED

582

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1039

PASS YDS ALLOWED

946

TURNOVERS LOST

6

TURNOVERS LOST

8

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

OPP TURNOVERS REC

9

POINTS SCORED

71

POINTS SCORED

97

POINTS ALLOWED

86

POINTS ALLOWED

79

TOTAL PLAYS

277

TOTAL PLAYS

273

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

281

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

321

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-4

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-48

TOTAL YARDS

1415

TOTAL YARDS

1332

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1490

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1463

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-75

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-131

YDS Per Rush

3.72

YDS Per Rush

4.57

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.67

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.40

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.51

YDS Per Pass Attempt

5.34

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.58

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.60

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

There’s a significant difference in scheduling here as Buffalo has had the much harder go of it so far. The Bills have faced the Jag’s, Raiders, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins while the Ravens have faced the Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Chiefs, and Redskins so the statistics are a bit misleading.

I like the Bills and the Over in this game. Buffalo finally got off the goose-egg so their spirits should be lifted to a degree. There also is a rumor flying around the sports books that the Bills owner has been unhappy with his team’s stodgy offense and has put in a request to open up the offense. Not that I’m overly excited about the prospects of QB Drew Bledsoe throwing the ball more, but when the opposing QB is Boller, I guess I can live with that. Buffalo is the more talented team, and with RB Jamal Lewis out of the Ravens line-up more of the Ravens offense will fall on Boller which isn’t a good thing. So I can’t make a case for the Ravens laying that many points.

Running the numbers, the computer makes the Ravens a five point favorite on their home field. But as those numbers were run up with Lewis on the field, I would make a two-point adjustment towards Buffalo in this case. That makes the game Ravens -3 which I think is a better line here. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if you had a defensive score in this game as well as a special team’s touchdown by the Ravens.

CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY

Vegas Line

TB -6.5 TOTAL 33

Predicted Outcome

TB 20 CHI 6

Records

CHI

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

TB

SU (1-5-0)

ATS (1-4-1), ATS HOME (0-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (2-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

CHICAGO

 

TAMPA BAY

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

83

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

91

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

102

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

94

RUSHES

136

RUSHES

133

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

162

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

186

RUSH YDS GAINED

614

RUSH YDS GAINED

460

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

698

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

747

PASS ATTEMPTS

152

PASS ATTEMPTS

203

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

159

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

165

PASS YDS GAINED

804

PASS YDS GAINED

1289

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1098

PASS YDS ALLOWED

949

TURNOVERS LOST

9

TURNOVERS LOST

12

OPP TURNOVERS REC

8

OPP TURNOVERS REC

8

POINTS SCORED

78

POINTS SCORED

90

POINTS ALLOWED

89

POINTS ALLOWED

117

TOTAL PLAYS

288

TOTAL PLAYS

336

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

321

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

351

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-33

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-15

TOTAL YARDS

1418

TOTAL YARDS

1749

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1796

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1696

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-378

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

53

YDS Per Rush

4.51

YDS Per Rush

3.46

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.31

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.02

YDS Per Pass Attempt

5.29

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.35

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.91

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.75

Recent Meetings

        CHI     TB  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/29/2002 TB 15 CHI 0 218 85 133 272 161 111
12/16/2001 TB 3 CHI 27 379 207 172 238 61 177
11/18/2001 CHI 27 TB 24 274 68 206 414 19 395

Commentary

Zzzzzzz…oh, is there a game on? In what looks like a huge snoozer, the Chicago Bears, probably starting their third quarterback of the season, go south to play a Buc’s team coming off a Monday night loss to the Rams.

Tampa Bay ’s defense may have taken a step back with all the changes in the off=season, but it’s not the best spot to have a rookie QB make his first start. Chicago will go back to running the ball, and will be upside down in yards, first downs, and points to a Tampa Bay team that seems to have found a spark with Griese at QB. It’s really hard to see the Bears doing anything in this game a week after struggling against the Redskins defense, but I think Chicago has enough defense to keep the Buc’s offense in check as well. Great spot with Tampa Bay who have played well enough to win lately, take the Under and the Bucs in the contest and load up on No-doze before kickoff.

DETROIT AT NY GIANTS

Vegas Line

NYG -6.5 TOTAL 40

Predicted Outcome

NYG 24 DET 14

Records

DET

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

NYG

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (4-1-0), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

DETROIT

 

NY GIANTS

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

66

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

99

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

106

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

90

RUSHES

119

RUSHES

144

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

149

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

127

RUSH YDS GAINED

382

RUSH YDS GAINED

718

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

550

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

620

PASS ATTEMPTS

137

PASS ATTEMPTS

156

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

181

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

164

PASS YDS GAINED

754

PASS YDS GAINED

1101

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1293

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1020

TURNOVERS LOST

4

TURNOVERS LOST

4

OPP TURNOVERS REC

12

OPP TURNOVERS REC

15

POINTS SCORED

88

POINTS SCORED

104

POINTS ALLOWED

110

POINTS ALLOWED

72

TOTAL PLAYS

256

TOTAL PLAYS

300

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

330

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

291

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-74

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

9

TOTAL YARDS

1136

TOTAL YARDS

1819

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1843

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1640

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-707

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

179

YDS Per Rush

3.21

YDS Per Rush

4.99

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.69

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.88

YDS Per Pass Attempt

5.50

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.06

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.14

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.22

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

Well, the real Lions finally showed up (the word fraud comes to mind). After living on special teams play and forcing opposition turnovers the Kittys’ luck finally ended last Sunday. Detroit’s offense finally played to its potential and put up five, that’s right five, first downs against the Packers’ defense that’s played speed bump for most of the season. Looking at the Lions’ statistics, that huge 707 yardage differential sticks out like a sore thumb so, yep five first downs looks about right. If you think Roy Williams isn’t the rookie WR of the year, just look at this Lions’ offense without him in the line-up.

New York comes off a bye week and should be healthier for this week’s game. I hate laying points with a team off a bye week that I think is substantially over rated and may come out flat against an overmatched club, but I don’t think the Lions two game road winning streak will continue past this game either. Not a play I’m interested in, but I’ll take the Giants and lay nearly a touchdown in a game that goes under the total.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

Vegas Line

IND -9.5 TOTAL 45.5

Predicted Outcome

IND 31 JAX 20

Records

JAX

SU (4-2-0)

ATS (4-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-5-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

IND

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (4-0-1), ATS HOME (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

Statistics

JACKSONVILLE

 

INDIANAPOLIS

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

107

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

129

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

109

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

112

RUSHES

146

RUSHES

156

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

180

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

110

RUSH YDS GAINED

564

RUSH YDS GAINED

658

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

690

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

459

PASS ATTEMPTS

203

PASS ATTEMPTS

157

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

180

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

213

PASS YDS GAINED

1305

PASS YDS GAINED

1289

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1230

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1468

TURNOVERS LOST

6

TURNOVERS LOST

6

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

OPP TURNOVERS REC

10

POINTS SCORED

95

POINTS SCORED

159

POINTS ALLOWED

102

POINTS ALLOWED

106

TOTAL PLAYS

349

TOTAL PLAYS

313

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

360

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

323

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-11

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-10

TOTAL YARDS

1869

TOTAL YARDS

1947

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1920

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1927

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-51

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

20

YDS Per Rush

3.86

YDS Per Rush

4.22

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.83

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.17

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.43

YDS Per Pass Attempt

8.21

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.83

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.89

Recent Meetings

        JAX     IND  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
10/3/2004 IND 24 JAC 17 408 97 311 337 117 220
11/9/2003 IND 23 JAC 28 353 174 179 394 47 347
9/21/2003 JAC 13 IND 23 266 152 114 289 73 216
12/29/2002 JAC 13 IND 20 266 154 112 272 126 146
9/8/2002 IND 28 JAC 25 343 118 225 307 104 203

Commentary

First, the Colts have won four of the last five, so I think it’s safe to assume Indianapolis will win this game. Indianapolis is winning their games and covering by margin this season with the average score being 31-21 for a 10 point margin including the painful loss to the Patriots to start the season. Throw out that three point loss to New England and the Colts have won games 31-17, 45-31, 24-17, and 35-14 for spreads of +14, +14, +7, and +21. I know Jacksonville has a good defense and owns the 24-17 game in Florida, but the Colts are winning and covering by margin an there’s no way I’m stepping in front of that train. Give me Indianapolis and the over here.

PHILADELPHIA AT CLEVELAND

Vegas Line

PHI -7 TOTAL 41.5

Predicted Outcome

PHI 27 CLE 14

Records

PHI

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (5-0-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-0), O/U AWAY (0-2-0)

CLE

SU (3-3-0)

ATS (3-3-0), ATS HOME (3-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-4-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

PHILADELPHIA

 

CLEVELAND

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

93

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

92

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

94

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

106

RUSHES

115

RUSHES

176

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

104

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

172

RUSH YDS GAINED

530

RUSH YDS GAINED

678

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

515

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

631

PASS ATTEMPTS

170

PASS ATTEMPTS

161

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

208

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

189

PASS YDS GAINED

1302

PASS YDS GAINED

1084

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1132

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1309

TURNOVERS LOST

4

TURNOVERS LOST

12

OPP TURNOVERS REC

9

OPP TURNOVERS REC

11

POINTS SCORED

137

POINTS SCORED

116

POINTS ALLOWED

63

POINTS ALLOWED

113

TOTAL PLAYS

285

TOTAL PLAYS

337

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

312

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

361

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-27

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-24

TOTAL YARDS

1832

TOTAL YARDS

1762

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1647

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1940

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

185

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-178

YDS Per Rush

4.61

YDS Per Rush

3.85

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.95

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.67

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.66

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.73

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.44

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.93

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

If you want to get in front of this Eagles’ train be my guest, but I won’t be there with you. This team is undefeated SU and against the spread winning by double-digits in every game. Yes they give up rushing yards, but the Eagles are ahead so early (think first half bet here) that opponents’ have to give up their rushing game early.

You’re paying a pretty good premium here in Cleveland where they Browns have played well all season, but you just have to wonder, looking at the numbers, if the Browns have enough fire-power to stay with the Eagles in a shootout. QB Jeff Garcia is feuding with the coaching staff, his offensive line, and now there’s a change in the receiving corps with Antonio Bryant coming in by trade, and he’s not considered a team guy either. I just don’t like the chemistry on this team right now, so there’s no way I’m backing the Browns this week.

I think the right bet here is to take the Eagles in the first half and take the back-door cover out of the equation. That also gets me under a touchdown spread, which I’m more comfortable laying on the road in any case. I think the total is just about right, with maybe a slight edge to the Under.

SAN DIEGO AT CAROLINA

Vegas Line

CAR -3 TOTAL 42

Predicted Outcome

SD 21 CAR 14

Records

SD

SU (3-3-0)

ATS (4-1-1), ATS AWAY (2-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

CAR

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (0-4-1), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

SAN DIEGO

 

CAROLINA

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

106

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

92

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

124

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

92

RUSHES

177

RUSHES

130

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

146

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

167

RUSH YDS GAINED

784

RUSH YDS GAINED

510

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

514

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

717

PASS ATTEMPTS

166

PASS ATTEMPTS

169

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

223

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

129

PASS YDS GAINED

1178

PASS YDS GAINED

1079

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1587

PASS YDS ALLOWED

873

TURNOVERS LOST

6

TURNOVERS LOST

11

OPP TURNOVERS REC

10

OPP TURNOVERS REC

5

POINTS SCORED

160

POINTS SCORED

77

POINTS ALLOWED

136

POINTS ALLOWED

118

TOTAL PLAYS

343

TOTAL PLAYS

299

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

369

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

296

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-26

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

3

TOTAL YARDS

1962

TOTAL YARDS

1589

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2101

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1590

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-139

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-1

YDS Per Rush

4.43

YDS Per Rush

3.92

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.52

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.29

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.10

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.38

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.12

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.77

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

I’m shocked the Chargers aren’t the favorite in this contest with Carolina RB Stephen Davis questionable with a knee that’s getting drained almost every day.

San Diego makes its second cross country trip in consecutive weeks and they should be travel weary. Their offense is LT on the ground and Gates through the air. Losing Reche is a pretty big hit, and bringing in two veteran WRs is a band aid, but after only three days of practice, McCardell and sidekick aren’t going to know this offense.

The spot really favors Carolina coming off the big loss to the Eagles and San Diego playing road warrior again. However, I don’t think the Panthers have anything left in the tank. Give me the Chargers and the points with the game going under the total.

ST LOUIS AT MIAMI

Vegas Line

STL -7 TOTAL 37.5

Predicted Outcome

STL 20 MIA 14

Records

STL

SU (4-2-0)

ATS (3-3-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-1-0)

MIA

SU (0-6-0)

ATS (1-5-0), ATS HOME (0-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-1), O/U HOME (0-3-0)

Statistics

ST LOUIS

 

MIAMI

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

125

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

83

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

126

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

90

RUSHES

150

RUSHES

141

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

164

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

203

RUSH YDS GAINED

676

RUSH YDS GAINED

417

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

791

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

811

PASS ATTEMPTS

211

PASS ATTEMPTS

209

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

211

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

145

PASS YDS GAINED

1580

PASS YDS GAINED

1041

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1402

PASS YDS ALLOWED

736

TURNOVERS LOST

11

TURNOVERS LOST

17

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

OPP TURNOVERS REC

5

POINTS SCORED

144

POINTS SCORED

55

POINTS ALLOWED

134

POINTS ALLOWED

107

TOTAL PLAYS

361

TOTAL PLAYS

350

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

375

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

348

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-14

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

2

TOTAL YARDS

2256

TOTAL YARDS

1458

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2193

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1547

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

63

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-89

YDS Per Rush

4.51

YDS Per Rush

2.96

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.82

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.00

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.49

YDS Per Pass Attempt

4.98

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.64

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.08

Recent Meetings

        STL     MIA  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
9/30/2001 MIA 10 STL 42 441 123 318 253 64 189

Commentary

This looks to me to be the mother of all let-down games. St Louis comes off a hard fought Monday night game to go on the road to win-less Miami. The Rams played well, and the public has jumped back on the bandwagon, especially after St Louis covered in a game they probably shouldn’t have won against Tampa Bay, and came back against Seattle to win on the road, while Miami drew heavy support against Buffalo and failed to cover again last week. If you’ve been waiting for a week where the Dolphins will have value, your ship just came in.

The Dolphins finally have a game where there isn’t a coaching miss-match. The incapable Dave (soon to be ex-head coach) W. matching wits (and I’m really stretching here) with throw-it-60-times Marts meaning the 32 nd best head coach is facing the 31 st best, and I’m hoping the casino has props on most time-outs used in the 3 rd quarter, most delay of game penalties, and most time teams fail on 3 rd and 1 and 4 th and 1 which adds to the entertainment value for what should be a comedy of errors.

I think every tout in Vegas will be on this play, but give me the Dolphins and he under. Send in the clowns!

TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA

Vegas Line

MIN -7 TOTAL 54

Predicted Outcome

MIN 34 TEN 27

Records

TEN

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U AWAY (2-1-0)

MIN

SU (4-1-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-1-0), O/U HOME (2-0-0)

Statistics

TENNESSEE

 

MINNESOTA

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

116

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

128

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

113

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

114

RUSHES

176

RUSHES

124

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

144

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

106

RUSH YDS GAINED

851

RUSH YDS GAINED

617

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

658

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

519

PASS ATTEMPTS

207

PASS ATTEMPTS

190

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

195

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

193

PASS YDS GAINED

1120

PASS YDS GAINED

1766

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1406

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1401

TURNOVERS LOST

8

TURNOVERS LOST

7

OPP TURNOVERS REC

12

OPP TURNOVERS REC

5

POINTS SCORED

121

POINTS SCORED

150

POINTS ALLOWED

138

POINTS ALLOWED

125

TOTAL PLAYS

383

TOTAL PLAYS

314

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

339

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

299

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

44

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

15

TOTAL YARDS

1971

TOTAL YARDS

2383

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2064

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1920

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-93

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

463

YDS Per Rush

4.84

YDS Per Rush

4.98

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.57

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.90

YDS Per Pass Attempt

5.41

YDS Per Pass Attempt

9.29

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.21

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.26

Recent Meetings

        TEN     MIN  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/9/2001 TEN 24 MIN 42 453 182 271 496 148 348

Commentary

Tennessee looked really sluggish in a lost to Houston off a Monday night victory over the Packers. I think Tennessee bounces back off that bad performance and has a pretty good offensive day this week. That means shoot-out me as we know Minnesota’s offense is hitting on all cylinders with QB Dante Culpepper throwing for five touchdowns every week.

The previous meeting in this series was a 42-24 offensive stampede won by Minnesota. This contest may not get to the 66 total points mark set by that game, but this contest is going over this 54 point total. I’m not sure that the Titans have all the weapons necessary to hang around the way New Orleans did, but I’m not going to lay a touchdown against Steve McNair as an underdog either. Give me the Over and I’ll pass on the sides.

NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND

Vegas Line

NE -6 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

NE 21 NYJ 14

Records

NYJ

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-0-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-1-0)

NE

SU (5-0-0)

ATS (4-0-1), ATS HOME (2-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (3-1-1), O/U HOME (2-0-1)

Statistics

NY JETS

 

NEW ENGLAND

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

108

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

101

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

89

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

101

RUSHES

155

RUSHES

156

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

123

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

131

RUSH YDS GAINED

688

RUSH YDS GAINED

626

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

500

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

500

PASS ATTEMPTS

152

PASS ATTEMPTS

143

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

152

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

181

PASS YDS GAINED

1122

PASS YDS GAINED

1118

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1094

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1129

TURNOVERS LOST

4

TURNOVERS LOST

9

OPP TURNOVERS REC

13

OPP TURNOVERS REC

11

POINTS SCORED

120

POINTS SCORED

135

POINTS ALLOWED

89

POINTS ALLOWED

83

TOTAL PLAYS

307

TOTAL PLAYS

299

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

275

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

312

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

32

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-13

TOTAL YARDS

1810

TOTAL YARDS

1744

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1594

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1629

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

216

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

115

YDS Per Rush

4.44

YDS Per Rush

4.01

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.07

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.82

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.38

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.82

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.20

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.24

Recent Meetings

        NYJ     NE  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/20/2003 NE 21 NYJ 16 321 109 212 271 133 138
9/21/2003 NYJ 16 NE 23 329 65 264 294 147 147
12/22/2002 NYJ 30 NE 17 393 108 285 216 97 119
9/15/2002 NE 44 NYJ 7 200 32 168 432 163 269
12/2/2001 NE 17 NYJ 16 282 119 163 264 73 191
9/23/2001 NYJ 10 NE 3 238 111 127 308 107 201

Commentary

For a team that wins every game and covers, the Patriots just can’t get any respect from the betting public. Admittedly, I was on Seattle last week in what was clearly the wrong side of that contest. But after watching the Patriots race out to a 17-point lead last Sunday, I knew one of those teams had big-game experience, and I had the other team!

I’m not making that mistake two weeks in a row. Yes, New England will fail to cover one of these week and I’ll lose money, but that’s only going to happen once. Until that time comes, save a seat for me on the bandwagon as I play the Patriots this week.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY

Vegas Line

GB -3.5 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

GB 24 DAL 14

Records

DAL

SU (2-3-0)

ATS (2-3-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

GB

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS HOME (0-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

DALLAS

 

GREEN BAY

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

97

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

134

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

96

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

110

RUSHES

121

RUSHES

166

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

133

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

167

RUSH YDS GAINED

513

RUSH YDS GAINED

651

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

616

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

782

PASS ATTEMPTS

177

PASS ATTEMPTS

241

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

153

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

174

PASS YDS GAINED

1264

PASS YDS GAINED

1663

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1018

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1262

TURNOVERS LOST

9

TURNOVERS LOST

14

OPP TURNOVERS REC

4

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

POINTS SCORED

87

POINTS SCORED

137

POINTS ALLOWED

115

POINTS ALLOWED

152

TOTAL PLAYS

298

TOTAL PLAYS

407

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

286

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

341

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

12

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

66

TOTAL YARDS

1777

TOTAL YARDS

2314

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1634

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2044

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

143

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

270

YDS Per Rush

4.24

YDS Per Rush

3.92

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.63

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.68

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.14

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.90

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.65

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.25

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

A tale of two teams that need a win last week…one team showed up and the other never unpacked. Green Bay surprised everyone by shutting out the Lions offense, limiting Detroit to only five first downs as the Packers romped under the roof at Ford Field. Dallas looked terrible against a rookie quarterback at home in a game they had to win to keep pace with the high-flying Eagles. That sent me a strong signal for this contest, the Packers have their problems but they have the strength to come together when it’s jock-check time and Dallas without a running game is dead in the water.

I really don’t think this game will be that close. If you watched the Cowboys offense last week, you saw Vinny T. making the big mistake every time he got pressure, and without a running game, he’s a sitting duck back there in the pocket. The problem is, you can hurt Green Bay if you can run the ball. If you’re like Detroit and can’t run, then the Green Bay blitz is a heck of a lot more effective and you’re on the wrong end of a lop-sided score line. We know the Cowboys can’t run, therefore it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s likely to happen here. Give me the Packers with the game going under the total.

NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND

Vegas Line

OAK -3 TOTAL 44.5

Predicted Outcome

NO 28 OAK 24

Records

NO

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (1-5-0), ATS AWAY (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-2-0), O/U AWAY (2-0-0)

OAK

SU (2-4-0)

ATS (2-4-0), ATS HOME (1-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-3-0), O/U HOME (1-2-0)

Statistics

NEW ORLEANS

 

OAKLAND

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

111

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

98

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

132

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

120

RUSHES

141

RUSHES

128

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

186

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

211

RUSH YDS GAINED

611

RUSH YDS GAINED

542

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

907

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

828

PASS ATTEMPTS

213

PASS ATTEMPTS

208

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

194

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

153

PASS YDS GAINED

1349

PASS YDS GAINED

1277

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1578

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1209

TURNOVERS LOST

9

TURNOVERS LOST

16

OPP TURNOVERS REC

11

OPP TURNOVERS REC

6

POINTS SCORED

123

POINTS SCORED

98

POINTS ALLOWED

165

POINTS ALLOWED

150

TOTAL PLAYS

354

TOTAL PLAYS

336

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

380

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

364

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-26

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-28

TOTAL YARDS

1960

TOTAL YARDS

1819

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2485

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

2037

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-525

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-218

YDS Per Rush

4.33

YDS Per Rush

4.23

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.88

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.92

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.33

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.14

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

8.13

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.90

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

What do you get when you put together two of the most undisciplined teams in the National Football League? The answer is a big, fat over.

As we saw against the Vikings, the Saints can score if you match them against a bad defense. Worse, the Saints defense didn’t even force the Minnesota offense to punt once in that game. That spells high scoring game here as both team take out their recent frustrations on the weak opposing defense. Both sides are going to throw the football down the field and I’d put the over/under for total interceptions at six, so if you like big plays, this is your cup-of-tea. Oakland can’t run the ball, and they may not need or want to here. New Orleans showed last week that they’re more than up for a shoot-out. Get your tickets now as this totals only going up from here, give me the Saints and the over in this contest.

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA

Vegas Line

SEA -7 TOTAL 41

Predicted Outcome

SEA 27 ARI 10

Records

SEA

SU (3-2-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS AWAY (2-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-2-0)

ARI

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (3-2-0), ATS HOME (1-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-3-0), O/U HOME (1-1-0)

Statistics

SEATTLE

 

ARIZONA

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

97

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

79

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

79

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

108

RUSHES

153

RUSHES

134

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

118

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

134

RUSH YDS GAINED

633

RUSH YDS GAINED

528

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

476

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

640

PASS ATTEMPTS

172

PASS ATTEMPTS

143

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

180

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

177

PASS YDS GAINED

1172

PASS YDS GAINED

832

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1054

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1197

TURNOVERS LOST

5

TURNOVERS LOST

8

OPP TURNOVERS REC

15

OPP TURNOVERS REC

14

POINTS SCORED

112

POINTS SCORED

87

POINTS ALLOWED

76

POINTS ALLOWED

87

TOTAL PLAYS

325

TOTAL PLAYS

277

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

298

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

311

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

27

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

-34

TOTAL YARDS

1805

TOTAL YARDS

1360

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1530

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1837

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

275

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-477

YDS Per Rush

4.14

YDS Per Rush

3.94

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.03

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.78

YDS Per Pass Attempt

6.81

YDS Per Pass Attempt

5.82

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.86

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

6.76

Recent Meetings

        SEA     ARI  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/21/2003 ARI 10 SEA 28 340 160 180 299 79 220
9/14/2003 SEA 38 ARI 0 323 130 193 286 93 193
11/10/2002 SEA 27 ARI 6 406 151 255 337 111 226
9/15/2002 ARI 24 SEA 13 426 81 345 347 249 98

Commentary

Seattle just pounds the Cardinals. Looking at the last three score lines, the Seahawks have outscored Arizona 92-16. And guess what, Arizona gets a really ticked off Seahawk team coming off two painful losses. I think Arizona has enough defense to keep this game under the total, but it’s going to be 60 minutes of pain in the desert.

DENVER AT CINCINNATI

Vegas Line

DEN -8 TOTAL 43.5

Predicted Outcome

DEN 23 CIN 16

Records

DEN

SU (5-1-0)

ATS (2-2-2), ATS AWAY (1-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (1-4-1), O/U AWAY (0-3-0)

CIN

SU (1-4-0)

ATS (0-5-0), ATS HOME (0-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-2-0), O/U HOME (0-2-0)

Statistics

DENVER

 

CINCINNATI

 

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

129

FIRST DOWNS GAINED

90

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

72

FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED

93

RUSHES

215

RUSHES

128

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

146

OPPONENTS’ RUSHES

174

RUSH YDS GAINED

910

RUSH YDS GAINED

511

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

524

RUSH YDS ALLOWED

802

PASS ATTEMPTS

184

PASS ATTEMPTS

190

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

153

OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT

132

PASS YDS GAINED

1314

PASS YDS GAINED

930

PASS YDS ALLOWED

825

PASS YDS ALLOWED

1024

TURNOVERS LOST

8

TURNOVERS LOST

11

OPP TURNOVERS REC

5

OPP TURNOVERS REC

12

POINTS SCORED

130

POINTS SCORED

83

POINTS ALLOWED

77

POINTS ALLOWED

129

TOTAL PLAYS

399

TOTAL PLAYS

318

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

299

TOTAL PLAYS ALLOWED

306

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

100

TOTAL PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

12

TOTAL YARDS

2224

TOTAL YARDS

1441

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1349

TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

1826

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

875

TOTAL YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

-385

YDS Per Rush

4.23

YDS Per Rush

3.99

Rush YDS per rush Against

3.59

Rush YDS per rush Against

4.61

YDS Per Pass Attempt

7.14

YDS Per Pass Attempt

4.89

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

5.39

YDS Against per Pass Attempt

7.76

Recent Meetings

        DEN     CIN  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
9/7/2003 DEN 30 CIN 10 293 184 109 294 51 243

Commentary

The number 32 rushing defense ( Cincinnati) against the number one rushing offense ( Denver), ouch! If you were bored with last week’s performance by the Ponies in Oakland (pound, pound, pound), there’s no point in tuning into this game because Denver is going to run the ball 30, 35, 40 times in this game ripping holes in the porous Cincinnati defense.

I really hate laying more than a touchdown on the road. That always seems to jump up and bite you, so if you like the Broncos, you might want to look at the first half line and take the backdoor cover out of the picture. I just can’t see how Cincinnati is going to stay in this contest long, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they made a run at the end with all that talent at the WR position.

I think Denver running the ball with shorten this game significantly, I really like the under in this contest as Denver’ games score 33 points per game and Bengals’ games score 41 points per game, both averages well under this week’s total of 43.5.