fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 8
October 27, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
ARZ at BUF NYG at MIN* ATL at DEN SF at CHI* MIA at NYJ
DET at DAL* NE at PIT CAR at SEA Bye Week: Bye Week:
IND at KC CIN at TEN* BAL at PHI CLE NO
JAX at HOU* GB at WAS OAK at SD* TB STL
Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins 0 0 240,1
RB A. Zereoue 20 20 0
RB Tyrone Wheatley 30 0 0
TE Doug Jolley 0 20 0
WR Doug Gabriel 0 40 0
WR Jerry Porter 0 90,1 0
WR Ronald Curry 0 50 0
PK Sebastian Janikowski 3 FG 1 XP -
  San Diego Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 0 0 200,2
RB L. Tomlinson 70,1 20 0
RB Jesse Chatman 40 10 0
TE Antonio Gates 0 50,1 0
WR Keenan McCardell 0 60,1 0
WR Eric Parker 0 40 0
WR Kassim Osgood 0 10 0
PK Nate Kaeding 2FG 3 XP -

OAK (3-4) vs SD (4-3)

Game Prediction: OAK 16, SD 27

This was always a fun match-up in the past but the roles are somewhat reversed from past seasons. Now the Chargers look always dangerous and the Raiders are constantly stumbling. The Raiders are winless on the road and face a team that is starting to expect to win games every week, not just shoot for a possible upset.

Update: Both Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry are questionable this week with hamstring problems but both are likely to play as they did last week. I am lowering their projections since neither will likely be 100%.

Tyrone Wheatley is still listed as doubtful, but HC Norv Turner said he expected that Wheatley would start since he was able to practice some this week. I am including him in the projections but obviously he carries a lot of risk from his previous shoulder injury and the most he will likely do is water down Zereoue's production. Both backs should see time though even Turner admitted Wheatley would play "if he didn't have a setback".

Pre-Game Notes - OAK

The Raiders had their best shot at a win last week when they fell to the Saints and currently are on a four game losing streak. Collins comes off his best game which was expected but it wasn't good enough.

Quarterback: Facing the porous Saints' secondary, Kerry Collins threw for 350 yards and two touchdowns last week and only had one interception. The game was everything that the previous three efforts were not other than it was, yet again, another loss. For the first time this season, Collins zeroed in on Jerry Porter mostly since the double coverage that Porter typically gets was not there all the time and not effective when it did happen. It was a positive step for the beleaguered quarterback and he'll face another soft secondary this week for a chance at even more redemption.

Running Backs: Just not happening here. A team that stated it wanted a return to smash mouth football has not done much more than give themselves a bloody lip. Amos Zereoue only gained 70 yards on 20 carries which was a sharp jump in volume and yet still the same disappointing yards per carry even though he faced a defense that had been ripped by almost every runner this year.

Tyrone Wheatley is still recovering from his shoulder injury and while he may be back this week I am assuming one more game will be needed for his return. He was doubtful last week but if an update is needed, I'll make it on Friday. Wheatley was no major gem in his early play but the only wins the Raiders have was when Wheatley was the ball carrier.

Wide Receivers: Jerry Porter does exist and he does wear a jersey on Sundays. We only know that now that he comes off a 113 yard effort against New Orleans with one touchdown - the first caught by a wideout in the past month. The Raiders entered last week with both Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel banged up but both played with marginal results.

The one game emergence of Porter is just that - only one game. But it signals the only good news for this crew in weeks.

Tight Ends: Collins is using both Doug Jolley and Courtney Anderson in games, though not enough to warrant either being a viable starting fantasy tight end.

Match Against the Defense: The Chargers have been much tougher on the run this year and the Raiders are not particularly running well anyway. Expect a lower game from Zereoue.

The Chargers pass defense had been terrible but in the inexplicable week 7 weirdness that happened across the league, suddenly the San Diego pass defense was great last week and held Delhomme to no scores and one interception. Consider that game more of an aberration since the Chargers allowed two passing scores to four other opponents this season. Collins should post a decent game here with a shot at high yardage again if he continues to play like last week.

Porter actually has the better matchup again this week and since he finally is connecting with Collins, he's the most likely to catch a touchdown pass, along with Doug Gabriel on a long route since the Chargers will give up a long pass or two in almost all games.

Pre-Game Notes - SD

The Chargers only losses have come against the Jets, in Denver and a one point loss to the Falcons. Otherwise they have been golden every time against teams with losing records like the Raiders. The Chargers just upgraded their offense with McCardell and Shaw while their defense is showing no signs that they will be slowing down.

Quarterback: Drew Brees has slowed down since his big game against the Titans in week four, but he's still been consistently good and has only thrown one interception in the past five games. Last week he had no scores against an always tough Carolina defense but his biggest contribution in that game was that he made no errors and allowed the rushing game to take the win.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson continues to be hampered by a groin strain which he claims gets a little worse each week in terms of pain. Last week he only had 47 yards on 17 carries and allowed Jesse Chatman to take eight carries to finish the game. Both scored touchdowns and at least until the bye in week 10, figure on Tomlinson continuing to be limited and sharing some carries until he can get some time off to heal.

Wide Receivers: Keenan McCardell was only a Charger for about four days before he was starting a game and ended as the lead receiver with five catches for 65 yards. That is a very positive sign and the Panthers are a tough defense to throw against anyway. McCardell should manage some very respectable fantasy numbers now in San Diego since the need is great and the competition for passes is weak.

Eric Parker had four catches for 47 yards last week and he too should enjoy at least a slightly better situation with McCardell on board to take some attention of him. The Chargers will always be a run first team but the set of receivers on the roster now is as strong as any time since Brees was drafted.

Bobby Shaw was acquired last week but never activated for the game. I am not projecting for him until word that he will be starting as a #3 or #4 receiver.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates had seven catches for 61 yards and continues his role as one of the most dangerous tight ends in the game today. Gates should be helped by McCardell as well since defenses no longer have the luxury of double teaming the tight end.

Match Against the Defense: Drew Brees is a lock to throw for one score since all quarterbacks have and now there are actual wideouts on the team. Most teams merely run all over the Raiders and with Ted Washington banged up that should be even easier this week. The question is how much Tomlinson will play and if Chatman will come in and produce any significant fantasy numbers in relief. Safest bet is Tomlinson will start and should turn in some moderate numbers but until the groin injury improves, Tomlinson is most likely to see depressed numbers and more sharing with Chatman.

Where the passing score goes is most likely to Gates as the favored receiver but could end up with either McCardell or Parker. This season the best receiver each week has been the one that receives the most throws regardless of his position on the field. That should end up with Gates or McCardell.

OAK SD 2004 Averages SD OAK
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
246
256
Pass yards
199
221
1.0
1.3
Pass TDs
1.3
1.6
1.6
0.9
Interceptions
0.4
0.6
5
11
Rush yards
5
11
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
84
78
Rush yards
115
110
0.6
0.7
Rush TDs
1.3
1.1
43
55
Receive yards
36
27
0.0
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.1
---
---
WR's
---
---
159
163
Receive yards
91
167
0.7
0.7
Receive TD's
0.7
0.9
---
---
TE's
---
---
44
38
Receive yards
72
27
0.3
0.4
Receive TD's
0.6
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.9
1.4
Field Goals
1.4
1.3
1.6
2.3
Extra Points
3.0
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.3
0.6
Fumbles
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.4
Interceptions
0.9
1.6
0.1
0.0
Touchdowns
0.1
0.4
2.0
1.4
Sacks
1.9
2.1
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Raiders (2-5)
Score Opp.
21-24 @PIT
13-10 BUF
30-20 TB
17-30 @HOU
14-35 @IND
3-31 DEN
26-31 NO
Week 8 @SD
Week 9 @CAR
Week 10 bye
Week 11 SD
Week 12 @DEN
Week 13 KC
Week 14 @ATL
Week 15 TEN
Week 16 @KC
Week 17 JAX
Chargers (4-3)
Score Opp.
27-20 @HOU
28-34 NYJ
13-23 @DEN
38-17 TEN
34-21 JAX
20-21 @ATL
17-6 @CAR
Week 8 OAK
Week 9 NO
Week 10 bye
Week 11 @OAK
Week 12 @KC
Week 13 DEN
Week 14 TB
Week 15 @CLE
Week 16 @IND
Week 17 KC