fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 9
November 3, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
NYJ at BUF* ARZ at MIA CHI at NYG NE at STL MIN at IND*
OAK at CAR* PHI at PIT* NO at SD* Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
DAL at CIN KC at TB SEA at SF* CLE at BAL ATL, JAX
WAS at DET* *updated HOU at DEN *updated GB, TEN
  New Orleans Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Brooks 10 0 280,2
RB Deuce McAllister 80,1 20 0
TE Boo Williams 0 20 0
TE Ernie Conwell 0 20 0
WR Joe Horn 0 90,1 0
WR Donte Stallworth 0 40 0
WR Jerome Pathon 0 80,1 0
PK John Carney 1 FG 3 XP -
  San Diego Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 0 0 270,3
RB Jesse Chatman 40,1 20 0
RB L. Tomlinson 90,1 20 0
TE Antonio Gates 0 60,1 0
WR Keenan McCardell 0 80,1 0
WR Kassim Osgood 0 40 0
WR Eric Parker 0 60,1 0
PK Nate Kaeding 1 FG 5 XP -

NO (3-4) vs SD (5-3)

Game Prediction: NO 24, SD 37

Here's a game with some good point potential. Two offenses that can post touchdowns and no defenses to really get in the way. Both teams have scored more than 30 points in a game three times this season and both have allowed at least one team to do it back.

Update: Boo Williams has not practiced due to a hamstring strain and I am removing him. He is not ruled out yet but it is not looking favorable.

Tomlinson is probable to play and should see some playing time but I am lowering his numbers a bit since he'll likely get pulled from the game if the Chargers get a good lead which I obviously see as probable. Jesse Chatman is having toe problems as well but he's expected to get a shot in his toe for the pain on Sunday and play.

Pre-Game Notes - NO

The Saints offense has scored 31 points in each of the last two games though they have also allowed 32 points on average in those two matchups. There's been little consistency with New Orleans this season but their win in Oakland likely bought HC Jim Haslet at least a little time before a potential axe might fall.

The Saints come off their bye week while the Chargers head into theirs after this game.

Quarterback: Aaron Brooks has not been spectacular this year but he has remained solid as a fantasy starter with five games over 220 yards and only once did he fail to throw at least one score. He's also only had one fumble this season after leading the league last year and he's only thrown three interceptions against nine touchdowns.

Running Backs: Surprisingly the King of 100 yard games last year only has one in 2004 and that was a 102 yard effort with no score against the Buccaneers. Deuce McAllister is just now fully regaining his health and ability to cut after a a high ankle sprain back in week two that has robbed him of the ability to make quick cuts. He tweaked it again against the Raiders in week seven. The bye week only helped him heal more and he's expected to return to more productive efforts this season.

Wide Receivers: Joe Horn already has four scores on the season and two of the three 100 yard games by a Saints wideout. Donte Stallworth had a rib bruise back in week six that has hampered him but he is expected to play. He's been yet another disappointment this season with only one score and one game over 66 yards. There's speculation that Jerome Pathon will be subbed for him on more than a few occasions since Pathon had 92 yards and 79 yards in the last two games.

Tight Ends: Boo Williams has floated in and out of the game plan and while he had three nice games in weeks three through five, he only had one catch for eight yards in the last two games. San Diego has allowed four scores to tight ends already this season and this game should provide a good opportunity for Williams if they actually call his number more than the one or two times in recent games.

Match Against the Defense: McAllister goes against a defense that can be dinged by the run, the question is if the Chargers score enough points to force opponents to throw. That is likely here with a very soft New Orleans defense. Figure him for a moderate game but chances are best he won't get the volume of carries for a good game.

Brooks should find success passing as well as the Chargers have already allowed half of their opponents to throw for two scores and over 250 yards. Given the likelihood of trash time, Brooks should turn in a nice fantasy game here. That would naturally also favor Horn as the favored receiver but should also trickle down to most likely Pathon or Williams if he finally gets used again.

Pre-Game Notes - SD

Imagine. The season is half over for San Diego and they are tied for the AFC West lead with Denver and have the most points scored of any team in the league. The passing game now equals the rushing game and when the rushing game already has LaDainian Tomlinson, it's no wonder there are some major points being scored.

Quarterback: Drew Brees already has 14 touchdowns on the season. For a perspective on that, consider that he only had 17 touchdowns in his only full season (2002) along with 16 interceptions. He only has three picks at the halfway point.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson has been hampered by a sore groin but that hasn't stopped him from scoring in every game this season except for the Denver trip. With the passing game working so well and the Chargers getting nice leads, it has allowed Tomlinson to take some time off and allow Jesse Chatman to score three times this season along with a 103 yard effort back in week five.

Wide Receivers: Keenan McCardell only needed two games to record his first Charger touchdown and ended the Oakland game with four catches for 55 yards. He's stepped right into the Reche Caldwell role and with Tomlinson and Gates on board, it's a certain to be a productive spot. Tim Dwight had his first score of the year last week but has been hampered by a sore toe almost the entire season. Eric Parker has played the #2 role and had a season high 91 yards on six catches last week with two scores on the season. This is a deceptively good receiving corps that doesn't get nearly the same attention as most teams would since Tomlinson and Gates are there.

Tight Ends: Last week Antonio Gates turned in his second two touchdown game of the season and he has not failed to catch at least six passes in each of the last four weeks. He's turning out to be one of the premier tight ends in the league in spite of a limited background prior to coming to the NFL.

Match Against the Defense: It is not really a question of how, it is a question of how many. Tomlinson faces a ready-to-shred rush defense of New Orleans that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season in spite of not facing many strong rushing attacks. If Kevan Barlow can run for 114 yards and two scores, how much can Tomlinson do?

The Saints have allowed three quarterbacks to exceed 350 yards passing. They have allowed the last two quarterbacks (Collins and Culpepper) to rack up 775 yards and seven touchdowns. Bo-nan-za.

Where the dust settles in this matchup could be anywhere but it is a safe bet that any Charger you are holding is a good candidate for starting. I'll project the most likely scenario but the Saints on the road? They might reward stadium ticket takers with a chance to score.

NO SD 2004 Averages SD NO
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
242
257
Pass yards
209
286
1.3
1.3
Pass TDs
1.8
1.4
0.4
1.0
Interceptions
0.4
0.7
14
10
Rush yards
7
5
0.1
0.3
Rush TDs
0.3
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
79
71
Rush yards
120
133
0.7
0.8
Rush TDs
1.3
1.1
29
60
Receive yards
34
49
0.0
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
189
158
Receive yards
101
192
0.9
0.6
Receive TD's
0.9
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
24
39
Receive yards
75
49
0.4
0.5
Receive TD's
0.9
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.7
1.3
Field Goals
1.3
1.7
2.3
2.3
Extra Points
3.4
3.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.1
0.6
Fumbles
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.4
Interceptions
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.0
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
2.1
1.4
Sacks
1.8
1.7
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Saints (3-4)
Score Opp.
7-21 SEA
30-27 SF
28-25 @STL
10-34 @ARI
17-20 TB
31-38 MIN
31-26 @OAK
Week 8 bye
Week 9 @SD
Week 10 KC
Week 11 DEN
Week 12 @ATL
Week 13 CAR
Week 14 @DAL
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 ATL
Week 17 @CAR
Chargers (5-3)
Score Opp.
27-20 @HOU
28-34 NYJ
13-23 @DEN
38-17 TEN
34-21 JAX
20-21 @ATL
17-6 @CAR
42-14 OAK
Week 9 NO
Week 10 bye
Week 11 @OAK
Week 12 @KC
Week 13 DEN
Week 14 TB
Week 15 @CLE
Week 16 @IND
Week 17 KC