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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 9
November 3, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
NYJ at BUF* ARZ at MIA CHI at NYG NE at STL MIN at IND*
OAK at CAR* PHI at PIT* NO at SD* Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
DAL at CIN KC at TB SEA at SF* CLE at BAL ATL, JAX
WAS at DET* *updated HOU at DEN *updated GB, TEN
  NY Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 210,1
RB Curtis Martin 70 20 0
RB Lamont Jordan 30 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 20 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 30 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 60,1 0
WR Santana Moss 0 50 0
PK Doug Brien 2 FG 2 XP -
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 180,1
RB Travis Henry 10 0 0
RB Willis McGahee 80 10 0
TE M. Campbell 0 10,1 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 70 0
WR Josh Reed 0 30 0
WR Lee Evans 0 50 0
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 1 XP -

NYJ (6-1) vs BUF (2-5)

Game Prediction: NYJ 17, BUF 13

A rematch of the week five game that saw the Jets squeak past 16-14. Now it's in Buffalo and the Bills think they have a runner in McGahee.

Update: Josh Reed is not expected to play this week and I am removing him from the projections.

Pre-Game Notes - NYJ

The Jets are fresh off their dismantling of the Dolphins in a game that most players never broke a sweat in the 41-14 win. The game wasn't even as close as the 27 point margin suggests.

Quarterback: Chad Pennington was at his best last Monday night when he completed 11 of 19 passes for 189 yards and three scores. He only had one touchdown pass in the previous four games and that one score was when he played the Bills and totaled a season high 304 yards.

Running Backs: Talk about a big night for all. Last Monday the Dolphins slowly gave up and the Jets ran all over them. Curtis Martin had 19 carries for 115 yards before tweaking his ankle and giving way to Lamont Jordan who had 14 carries and exactly 115 yards and one score like Martin. It would have been a monster night against a bad defense and it was a total scorching of a defense as good as the Fins.

Martin was held to only 77 yards and no scores in his meeting against the Bills earlier this season. It was one of only two games in which he did not score. I am assuming that Martin is fine to play this week but will update if his ankle appears any more problematic.

Wide Receivers: Justin McCareins has picked up the pace finally with three straight games over 50 yards and scoring his first Jet touchdown last Monday against the Dolphins. The same cannot be said about Santana Moss who has absolutely disappeared from the game plan. He finally caught one pass for 47 yards against Miami but only had two throws in the entire game. He is still bothered by a hamstring strain which explains some of his reduced production but with only 290 yards and no scores on the season, he's not even the equivalent of a tight end. In fact even the tight end Chris Baker has three scores this year.

Tight Ends: Chris Baker only had one catch for one yard but it was a touchdown last week and that's more fantasy points than Moss had. Baker has no real yardage in any game but is good for a score every few weeks.

Match Against the Defense: This rematch should be good since the Jets were lucky enough to beat the Bills who have perfected "letting teams be lucky enough to beat them". The Bills feature a very good defense obscured by a lethargic offense. Martin has not rushed for more than 84 yards against the Bills in two years and he'll most likely stay at that level. He has not scored on the Bills in the past two seasons.

The 304 yard game by Pennington in week five was the most allowed by the Bills all season. Only once have they allowed more than one touchdown via the pass. Since that week five game, the Bills have not allowed more than 136 passing yards to an opponent. Pennington only had 155 yards and no scores in Buffalo last year and the Bills are getting desperate to win a game. The Jets won't overlook them and should win, but it will be a tougher match than the records indicate.

Pre-Game Notes - BUF

The Bills come off their second win of the year and with a 38-14 stomp of the visiting Cardinals, it was a much needed salve to the wounded egos of the offense. Prior to last week, the best the offense could post was 20 points in a game.

Quarterback: A win is a win and Drew Bledsoe did throw for two touchdowns last week but only completed 8 of 17 passes for 81 yards. With McGahee running fairly well, they opted to run the ball 30 times and the passing scores went to Moulds and Euhus. Bledsoe should be safe for now from getting replaced by J.P. Losman, but there is virtually no chance he can hold on to his job once Losman is healthy.

Running Backs: The Bills quickly established a new pecking order in the backfield. Last week Travis Henry only had one carry for one yard. Willis McGahee had 30 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns. Expect that ratio to continue, much to the dismay of Henry. McGahee was not wildly productive and his longest run was 24 yards though his per carry average was 3.4. That's Henry territory though the two scores were an improvement.

Wide Receivers: The only fantasy relevance in this group is Eric Moulds and he has only managed one 100 yard game this season. Of the meager eight passing touchdowns this season, he has four of them. Against the Jets in week five, Moulds only had 56 yards and no score while Josh Reed had no catches and Lee Evans scored a touchdown on his only catch in the game.

Tight Ends: Just in case anyone grabbed Mark Campbell when he had touchdowns in two straight games, the score was caught by rookie Tim Euhus last week - his first in the NFL.

Match Against the Defense: Henry and McGahee combined for 75 yards on 20 carries in the last meeting but with McGahee by himself now, it is still not likely he will turn in a big game here. The Jets have allowed only three rushing scores all season and only once (Dillon) did they allow a 100 yard rusher.

Bledsoe had some success last time against the Jets with two scores but his 197 yards throwing were the least allowed by the Jets in the past five weeks. With a renewed commitment to the run, he'll do well enough to merely meet that level and likely won't match it. Both touchdowns by Buffalo in the last meeting came in the final quarter when the Jets thought they had a safe lead.

NYJ BUF 2004 Averages BUF NYJ
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
216
183
Pass yards
184
230
1.1
1.0
Pass TDs
1.1
1.3
0.3
0.6
Interceptions
1.0
1.3
8
8
Rush yards
0
11
0.1
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
 
---
RB's
---
 
143
89
Rush yards
99
90
1.3
0.4
Rush TDs
0.3
0.4
48
24
Receive yards
22
33
0.3
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.1
 
---
WR's
---
 
141
127
Receive yards
143
155
0.4
0.7
Receive TD's
0.6
0.9
 
---
TE's
---
 
27
32
Receive yards
26
40
0.4
0.3
Receive TD's
0.4
0.3
 
---
PK's
---
 
1.4
1.7
Field Goals
1.1
0.9
2.6
1.7
Extra Points
1.9
2.0
 
---
DEF/ST
---
 
1.0
0.6
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.0
Interceptions
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
Touchdowns
0.4
0.1
2.1
3.4
Sacks
2.6
1.4
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jets (6-1)
Score Opp.
31-24 CIN
34-28 @SD
Week 3 bye
17-9 @MIA
16-14 BUF
22-14 SF
7-13 @NE
41-14 MIA
Week 9 @BUF
Week 10 BAL
Week 11 @CLE
Week 12 @ARI
Week 13 HOU
Week 14 @PIT
Week 15 SEA
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @STL
Bills (2-5)
Score Opp.
10-13 JAX
10-13 @OAK
Week 3 bye
17-31 NE
14-16 @NYJ
20-13 MIA
6-20 @BAL
38-14 ARI
Week 9 NYJ
Week 10 @NE
Week 11 STL
Week 12 @SEA
Week 13 @MIA
Week 14 CLE
Week 15 @CIN
Week 16 @SF
Week 17 PIT