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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 10, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
PIT at CLE* BAL at NYJ CIN at WAS BUF at NE* PHI at DAL*
TB at ATL* KC at NO* NYG at ARZ Bye Week: Bye Week:
DET at JAX* CHI at TEN* CAR at SF DEN MIA
HOU at IND SEA at STL MIN at GB* OAK SD
  Baltimore Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Boller 0 0 150
RB Jamal Lewis 100,2 10 0
TE Wilcox/Jones 0 20 0
WR Travis Taylor 0 50 0
WR Clarence Moore 0 30 0
WR Kevin Johnson 0 30 0
WR Randy Hymes 0 10 0
PK Matt Stover 2 FG 2 XP -
  NY Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Quincy Carter 0 0 180
RB Curtis Martin 70 20 0
RB Lamont Jordan 20 10 0
TE Chris Baker 0 20 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 30 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 40 0
WR Santana Moss 0 50 0
PK Doug Brien 3 FG 0 XP -

BAL (5-3) vs NYJ (6-2)

Game Prediction: BAL 20, NYJ 9

The Jets host the Ravens defense at a bad time - Pennington is out and the Jets have lost two of their last three games. Quincy Carter gets to have his first start as a Jet under less than ideal conditions but the Jets simply cannot afford to fall any further behind the Patriots. Then again, the Ravens have to chase the Steelers and so far - only Baltimore has managed to beat Pittsburgh.

Pre-Game Notes - BAL

The Ravens have won three of their last four games and welcomed Jamal Lewis back last week. After this game, they will host the struggling Cowboys and then travel to New England. Better get those wins now while they can.

Quarterback: Kyle Boller comes off a 142 yard effort against the Browns and while he didn't throw a touchdown, he did lead the team on one late drive to help secure the game. His one interception did not hurt nearly as bad as the one Jeff Garcia threw.

Running Backs: Jamal Lewis ran 22 times for 81 yards and one touchdown in his first game back from suspension, but didn't start to get into gear until the second half since the Ravens were trying to open with a more balanced offense for some reason. After the game, HC Brian Billick said he needed to get Lewis into the game earlier and more often from now on so that he can "get on track".

Wide Receivers: Travis Taylor led all receivers with 58 yards on seven receptions and while Clarence Moore (2-24) was given more playing time over Kevin Johnson (3-24), he was not more productive. At least in that splitting hairs sort of way but in Baltimore, one additional catch is more meaningful than on most teams. This is still a relative desert for fantasy points.

Tight Ends: There is a chance that Todd Heap returns this week in the same way that he has spent the last three games almost being well enough. He can run now but could not make clean cuts and was inactive last week. Until there is better information later in the week, I assume he will yet again miss this week.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets pass defense has only been average this season and have allowed the last five quarterbacks to score at least once. That doesn't mean that Boller will throw the rare score, but that the opportunity will be slightly better this week, particularly since the Jets will be using Quincy Carter which could lead to better field position and more series for the Ravens offense.

Jamal Lewis can have a nice game here if Billick will give him the ball 25 times or more. The chances are good since the Jets are pretty banged up right now and if the Ravens can force some turnovers, Lewis might get more than one score thanks to field position bonuses. The Ravens have a good chance to win this game and Boller is not about to throw more than needed, so Lewis is safe for a good game with a shot at some very nice numbers from volume of carries. The Bills rush defense has allowed only two 100 yard rushers this year and neither were in New York, so his per carry average likely will not get over about four yards.

Pre-Game Notes - NYJ

The good news is that Pennington will only likely miss two games. The bad news is that they face the Ravens this week and then go on the road to Cleveland where the Browns suddenly are playing well. Losing two more games anytime soon likely spells hoping for a wildcard this season.

Quarterback: Chad Pennington has a strained rotator cuff and while he may heal faster than two weeks, he will not be available this week. Quincy Carter takes the reins which causes an obvious new variable for the offense from the accurate Pennington. Carter did throw a 51-yard touchdown the Santana Moss last week which was encouraging, but it was also on a play with a blown coverage and there were no defenders within fifteen yards of Moss when he scored. Other than the one touchdown pass, he only had one completion on two other throws for 14 yards. His two completions were to Moss and the one incompletion went to Becht. Every Moss owner in the word is hoping he continues that ratio this week.

Running Backs: Curtis Martin comes off his worst game of the season, gaining only 67 yards on 19 carries against the Bills last week. While he had 115 yards and a score against the Dolphins in week eight, he only managed 70 yards and no score against the Patriots the previous week. Facing the Ravens will be the fourth tough defense in a row for him and his production has shown it. With Carter as quarterback, Martin will need to take the pressure off him and should see more carries this week than the 20 or so that has been his standard.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss did score last week for the first time this season even though it had to be thrown by Quincy Carter on a defensive error that left him uncovered. It was also his first 100 yard effort of the season and with 157 yards, he would have had it even without the 51-yard touchdown pass.

Justin McCareins had touchdowns in the last two games and was finally starting to figure into the passing scheme more but now with Carter, it remains to be seen if that trend continues. The passing numbers should be lower this week and if Carter does continue to notice Moss, it will likely give McCareins a backseat again until Pennington returns.

Tight Ends: Chris Baker is the preferred target in the endzone when the Jets actually throw, but he only has three scores on the season and with Carter, another one is even harder to forecast. As a new quarterback likely to face a significant blitz, Carter might end up more likely to throw the shorter pass to the tight ends but that could end up with Martin or Sowell just as easily. It depends too if the Jets want to keep the tight ends in to help block more this week - a good likelihood.

Match Against the Defense: This is obviously harder to do with a quarterback that has never started for the Jets and who was not good enough for the Cowboys (not a resume' builder in retrospect). The Ravens have only allowed one running back - Priest Holmes - to score a rushing touchdown this season. They have only allowed one running back - Priest Holmes - to gain more than 98 yards this year. Most runners end up below 60 yards.

It is a safe bet that Martin will have an increased role this week and that could even include Lamont Jordan at some point. The Ravens are not likely to make this a shootout so with a lower score, both teams will be mostly running the ball. Martin should have at least a moderate game from sheer volume but expecting more than one score - if even that - would be pretty optimistic.

The Ravens secondary has only allowed six passing scores all year. Not likely that Carter will prove better than Palmer or Bledsoe who were both blanked in their meetings with Baltimore. Quincy Carter does have a big arm and the best chance that there will be a touchdown will be on one long pass if it happens. Since McAlister will be matched on Moss all game, it will be a hard pass to complete.

BAL NYJ 2004 Averages NYJ BAL
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
138
224
Pass yards
215
202
0.4
1.3
Pass TDs
1.3
0.8
0.8
1.1
Interceptions
0.4
1.4
11
12
Rush yards
9
12
0.5
0.1
Rush TDs
0.1
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
124
97
Rush yards
134
87
0.8
0.5
Rush TDs
1.1
0.3
14
33
Receive yards
42
23
0
0.1
Receive TD's
0.3
0
---
---
WR's
---
---
90
155
Receive yards
146
141
0.1
0.9
Receive TD's
0.6
0.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
34
35
Receive yards
27
38
0.1
0.3
Receive TD's
0.4
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.8
1
Field Goals
1.4
1.9
1.8
2
Extra Points
2.5
1
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.8
0.6
Fumbles
0.9
0.8
1.4
0.6
Interceptions
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.1
Touchdowns
0.3
0.1
2.9
1.4
Sacks
2.1
2.5
0
0.1
Safeties
0
0
Ravens (5-3)
Score Opp.
3-20 @CLE
30-13 PIT
23-9 @CIN
24-27 KC
17-10 @WAS
Week 6 bye
20-6 BUF
10-15 @PHI
27-13 CLE
Week 10 @NYJ
Week 11 DAL
Week 12 @NE
Week 13 CIN
Week 14 NYG
Week 15 @IND
Week 16 @PIT
Week 17 MIA
Jets (6-2)
Score Opp.
31-24 CIN
34-28 @SD
Week 3 bye
17-9 @MIA
16-14 BUF
22-14 SF
7-13 @NE
41-14 MIA
17-22 @BUF
Week 10 BAL
Week 11 @CLE
Week 12 @ARI
Week 13 HOU
Week 14 @PIT
Week 15 SEA
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @STL