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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 10, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
PIT at CLE* BAL at NYJ CIN at WAS BUF at NE* PHI at DAL*
TB at ATL* KC at NO* NYG at ARZ Bye Week: Bye Week:
DET at JAX* CHI at TEN* CAR at SF DEN MIA
HOU at IND SEA at STL MIN at GB* OAK SD
  Cincinnati Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 0 0 190,1
RB Rudi Johnson 60 10 0
TE Kelly/Stewart/Schobel 0 20 0
WR Houshmandzadeh 0 30 0
WR Kelly Washington 0 20 0
WR Chad Johnson 0 70,1 0
PK Shayne Graham 2 FG 1 XP -
  Washington Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Brunell 0 0 120,1
RB Clinton Portis 140,1 20 0
TE Chris Cooley 0 10 0
WR Lavernues Coles 0 40 0
WR Rod Gardner 0 40,1 0
PK Ola Kimrin 1 FG 2 XP -

CIN (3-5) vs WAS (3-5)

Game Prediction: CIN 13, WAS 17

Here is a perfect coin flip game. Since week two, both teams have always won or lost in the same week. They have the same record and both come off wins. While the Bengals are likely the better offense, they are on the road where they are 0-4 this year. The Redskins are at home where they are only 1-3 this season. If Clinton Portis would just not play, the game would be much easier to forecast. He's playing so just flip that coin.

Pre-Game Notes - CIN

The Bengals offense has improved as of late, scoring at least 20 points in the last three games and Carson Palmer comes off his first game with no turnovers. The Bengals are 0-4 on the road this year and if they will win any road game, this had better be it since they only remaining ones will be at Baltimore, New England and Philadelphia. There's a string of road games to avoid.

Quarterback: Carson Palmer comes off a 212 yard, one touchdown effort against the Cowboys and he's managed to throw exactly one score in four of the last five games. The offense has been settling around 200 yards passing a week and he's been slowly improving his completion ratio.

Running Backs: Against Dallas, Rudi Johnson had 95 rushing yards on 26 carries - his busiest game this season. He had scored in three of the previous four games but was held out of the endzone last week. With Chris Perry always hurt (and he's hurt again this week), Johnson has been getting all but one or two token carries given to Kenny Watson. Whatever is there for the rushing game is almost entirely Johnson's each week.

Wide Receivers: Though he failed to score, Chad Johnson still had eight catches for 74 yards against the Cowboys while no other receiver had more than one catch. Johnson still has only two touchdowns on the season and only once has exceeded 100 yards this year. The Bengals are mixing in T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Kelley Washington but combined they don't often exceed what Johnson does by himself.

Tight Ends: The three-headed monster produced a touchdown last week when Matt Schobel scored on a 76-yard pass play. He will not typically be good for 76-yard touchdowns since he only had 67 yards for the entire season up until that catch.

Match Against the Defense: This will be a moderate game from Rudi Johnson at best. The Redskins have allowed only three rushing scores this season and Ahman Green scored two and otherwise only Eddie George scored there (he only had 19 yards on 11 carries that game). It is a tough defense that is improving.

The passing game should produce one score but no more since the Redskins have only allowed five passing touchdowns this year and never more than one a week. Most teams end up around 200 yards which is where Palmer usually settles anyway.

As for matchups it does not matter. There is Chad Johnson. Then take his yardage and divide by the number of other receivers to forecast the rest.

Pre-Game Notes - WAS

The Redskins have three wins but that is no thanks to the offense. They have yet to score more than 18 points in any game so the only question is if the defense can prevent the opponent from scoring two touchdowns. Every time they keep it to one touchdown - the Redskins win. Every time they allow two scores or more - they lose.

Quarterback: Mark Brunell has finally hit the bottom with completing only six of 17 passes for 58 yards during the entire Lions game. The Redskins did win, but with only 58 yards passing by Brunell. Against the Lions. Once again, HC Joe Gibbs has publicly stated that he will stay with Brunell.

58 yards. Winning really does make everything better.

Running Backs: Clinton Portis is paying dividends finally. He had 34 carries for 147 yards last week though he never scored. He had 171 yards against the Bears in week six. He has not scored in the last five games, but he's finally returned to big yardage days which has been good enough to beat bad teams.

Clinton Portis threw a 15-yard touchdown to Laveranues Coles last week. In a game where the quarterback only had 58 yards passing, Portis supplied about a third of all passing yards on one trick play inside the redzone.

Wide Receivers: That touchdown pass was significant because it was the only one that Laveranues Coles has caught this year. The only one. From Portis. Thanks, Mark, thanks for nothing.

Coles only had 46 yards in the game but that was about half of all receiving production. As long as Brunell continues to throw, Rod Gardner is the only wideout he has connected with on a touchdown but even Gardner had no catches last week for the first time in his career. There is nothing happening here until the Redskins change quarterbacks and for yet more good news realize that the weather in D.C. will start to get colder, wetter and more windy for the rest of the year. Like the wideouts need nature against them as well.

Tight Ends: When Portis is rushing 34 times in a game, the tight ends are not out in passing routes. Avoid this crew.

Match Against the Defense: The Bengals have already allowed six different runners to exceed 100 yards this season. Look for a very big week from Portis who should end up with at least 25 to 30 carries.

The Redskins do not throw, or at least not particularly well, but there is a chance that Brunell manages one touchdown this week since the Bengals allowed all opposing quarterbacks to score until Dallas came to town and had an emotional breakdown. There is virtually no chance that Brunell can exceed 200 yards this week and he may not need to reach 100 yards with as much as Portis should be used.

CIN WAS 2004 Averages WAS CIN
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
211
166
Pass yards
189
210
1.5
1
Pass TDs
0.8
0.8
1.3
1
Interceptions
1.1
1.3
6
10
Rush yards
4
2
0.1
0
Rush TDs
0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
138
112
Rush yards
80
96
0.6
0.3
Rush TDs
0.5
0.5
47
22
Receive yards
41
24
0.5
0.1
Receive TD's
0.1
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
130
123
Receive yards
122
158
0.8
0.8
Receive TD's
0.4
0.3
---
---
TE's
---
---
34
23
Receive yards
30
28
0.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.3
1.3
Field Goals
1.1
2.3
2.4
1.5
Extra Points
1.8
1.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.5
0.5
Fumbles
0.9
1.5
1.3
1.1
Interceptions
1
1.1
0.3
0.1
Touchdowns
0.6
0.4
2.4
2.4
Sacks
2.1
1.6
0
0
Safeties
0
0
Bengals (3-5)
Score Opp.
24-31 @NYJ
16-13 MIA
9-23 BAL
17-28 @PIT
Week 5 bye
17-34 @CLE
23-10 DEN
20-27 @TEN
26-3 DAL
Week 10 @WAS
Week 11 PIT
Week 12 CLE
Week 13 @BAL
Week 14 @NE
Week 15 BUF
Week 16 NYG
Week 17 @PHI
Redskins (3-5)
Score Opp.
16-10 TB
14-20 @NYG
18-21 DAL
13-17 @CLE
10-17 BAL
13-10 @CHI
Week 7 bye
14-28 GB
17-10 @DET
Week 10 CIN
Week 11 @PHI
Week 12 @PIT
Week 13 NYG
Week 14 PHI
Week 15 @SF
Week 16 @DAL
Week 17 MIN