fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 10, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
PIT at CLE* BAL at NYJ CIN at WAS BUF at NE* PHI at DAL*
TB at ATL* KC at NO* NYG at ARZ Bye Week: Bye Week:
DET at JAX* CHI at TEN* CAR at SF DEN MIA
HOU at IND SEA at STL MIN at GB* OAK SD
  Detroit Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington 0 0 240,2
RB Kevin Jones 50 20 0
RB Artose Pinner 30 0 0
TE Stephen Alexander 0 10 0
WR Roy Williams 0 70,1 0
WR Reggie Swinton 0 30,1 0
WR Az-Zahir Hakim 0 40 0
WR Tai Streets 0 10 0
PK Jason Hanson 0 FG 2 XP -
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 0 0 210,1
RB Fred Taylor 100,1 30 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 10 0
TE George Wrighster 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 90,1 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 30 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 20 0
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP -

DET (4-4) vs JAX (5-3)

Game Prediction: DET 14, JAX 17

The Lions have dropped three of their last four games while the Jaguars have to contend with a new quarterback for a couple of weeks. This is an important game - the Jaguars are now tied with the Colts for the AFC South while the Lions are 4-4 and yet only one game behind the NFC North leader Vikings.

Update: Hakim has not been practicing and is suffering from back and ankle injuries. He is questionable to play and I am lowering his numbers. He may not be available on Sunday but the decision will be made closer to the game.

George Wrighster is also expected to miss this week.

Pre-Game Notes - DET

The Lions hit the road where they are 3-1 on the season and bring a sound defense to throw at David Garrard. The Lions have lost their luster this season but are still dangerous.

Quarterback: Joey Harrington still hasn't played in a game without a touchdown pass this season. Against the visiting Redskins last Sunday he had 269 yards and one score with no interceptions. He's only had two picks in the last five weeks and currently has 13 touchdowns against only five touchdowns for the season.

Running Backs: Kevin Jones is not happy. He's getting frustrated again with a lack of production with only 20 yards on 12 carries last week which followed only 36 yards on 11 carries the previous game. A top draft pick, Jones has learned the offense and yet has not carried the ball more than 15 times in any game. In the one week that Jones was out, Artose Pinner had 23 carries for 68 yards and a score against the Falcons.

The sharing ratio with Pinner has been all over the map even when Jones is healthy. Last week Jones had 12 carries to only two for Pinner. The previous week it was 13 carries to 9 for Pinner. Jones has not yet fumbled in the NFL and is healthy, but the coaching staff has yet to try him more than a mere part-time back.

Wide Receivers: Roy Williams only had three catches for 33 yards last week and only four catches for 67 yards in week seven when he previously played. There is a concern that his ankle will remain a problem likely for the entire season. He continues to play through the injury and even had another incredible one-handed catch last week but hasn't been as effective as he was before the injury.

Az-Zahir Hakim had his best game of the season last week when he snared seven passes for 120 yards. For the last five games, he's managed at least 50 yards a game and with Williams not 100%, has stepped up to a productive role.

Tight Ends: If Roy Williams had a broken leg, he would still catch more than any Detroit tight end.

Match Against the Defense: Kevin Jones has not been given much play this year and the Jaguars have not allowed many runners to have a good day even when they were the primary carrier. Half the runners against Jacksonville have scored but don't expect it from Jones this week. He won't get enough carries to turn in more than moderate yardage if even that.

Harrington should do well against this secondary that has allowed ten passing scores in the last five weeks. Where the Jaguars have been hurt the most is against tight ends since they have scored five times this year - the same amount of scores that wideouts have had. Unfortunately, the Lions have made little use of the position. If it doesn't come via Williams or Hakim, it rarely happens in the passing game. Figure on there being likely two passing scores and all but one wideout score went to the side that Roy Williams plays. If he can hop down the field fast enough, he should score at least once.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

The Jaguars lost a much needed game in Houston and in the process, lost a much needed quarterback. With a defense that has been softer the last five weeks, this is no time for the offense to have to start over with a new quarterback.

Quarterback: Enter stage right David Garrard, exit Byron Leftwich stage left. Now that Leftwich is out of the picture for at least a week or two, Garrard gets only his second start in the NFL. Garrard has only had two snaps this season, so he'll be hard to forecast and likely to be more protected by the running game.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor has been recovering from a hip pointer during the bye week and with Leftwich out, he'll need to carry a heavier load if this offense is going to stay ahead of opponents. Taylor only has one 100+ yard game this season and scored only twice. Just when he looked good in weeks six and seven, he was injured in week eight along with Leftwich. Taylor should be healthy again this week. The Jaguars hope that Taylor starts to catch fire as he did last year at this time. In the first half of 2003, he only had 538 yards but gained 989 yards in the final eight games of last season.

Wide Receivers: No one will miss Leftwich more than Jimmy Smith. That's easy to understand since Smith has been the only receiver of any consequence this year and had gained at least 91 yards in each of the last four games. Reggie Williams is slowly being brought into the scheme and should see a slide back without Leftwich and Troy Edwards has never been worth much more than 40 yards a game.

Tight Ends: Jacksonville has not used the tight end position much this season and prefer George Wrighster over Kyle Brady as a receiver. Wrighster has been out since week four but is expected back this week but no tight end has managed more than about 30 yards in a game and only two scores have gone to the position.

Match Against the Defense: Garrard picked a nice week to take the reins. The Lions have allowed four teams to throw for multiple scores this season and twice allowed 300+ yard games. Without knowing how well he will play, figure him safe enough for one score and likely 200 or so yards as an average outing against Detroit.

Fred Taylor will face a tough rushing defense that has only allowed one running back to exceed 100 yards this season and since week one there have only been two rushing scores. The Lions have been hurt by running back catches so expect Taylor to throw some reception yardage on his total this week. With a new quarterback, it is most likely that Taylor gets some extra carries this week to help control the game and prevent forcing Garrard into throwing out of need.

When new quarterbacks come in with no game film like Garrard, it is not unusual for them to have a nice game but it is also impossible to rely on.

DET JAX 2004 Averages JAX DET
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
195
240
Pass yards
240
239
1.6
1.4
Pass TDs
1.1
1.3
0.6
0.3
Interceptions
0.9
1
7
10
Rush yards
8
11
0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.3
0.3
---
---
RB's
---
---
68
99
Rush yards
83
99
0.4
0.5
Rush TDs
0.3
0.5
38
50
Receive yards
46
53
0.4
0.1
Receive TD's
0.1
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
133
152
Receive yards
166
148
1.3
0.6
Receive TD's
0.8
1
---
---
TE's
---
---
25
44
Receive yards
29
42
0
0.5
Receive TD's
0.3
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.6
1.4
Field Goals
1.4
1.3
2.3
1.9
Extra Points
1.1
2.4
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.1
0.4
Fumbles
0.9
0.1
1
1
Interceptions
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.1
Touchdowns
0
0.3
2.9
2.5
Sacks
1.5
2.3
0
0
Safeties
0
0.1
Lions(4-4)
Score Opp.
20-16 @CHI
28-16 HOU
13-30 PHI
Week 4 bye
17-10 @ATL
10-38 GB
28-13 @NYG
21-31 @DAL
10-17 WAS
Week 10 @JAX
Week 11 @MIN
Week 12 IND
Week 13 ARI
Week 14 @GB
Week 15 MIN
Week 16 CHI
Week 17 @TEN
Jaguars (5-3)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
15-12 @TEN
17-24 IND
21-34 @SD
22-16 KC
27-24 @IND
6-20 @HOU
Week 9 bye
Week 10 DET
Week 11 TEN
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 PIT
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK