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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 10, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
PIT at CLE* BAL at NYJ CIN at WAS BUF at NE* PHI at DAL*
TB at ATL* KC at NO* NYG at ARZ Bye Week: Bye Week:
DET at JAX* CHI at TEN* CAR at SF DEN MIA
HOU at IND SEA at STL MIN at GB* OAK SD
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 300,3
RB Derrick Blaylock 70,1 20 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 70,2 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 100 0
WR Dante Hall 0 40 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 80,1 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 4 XP -
  New Orleans Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Brooks 0 0 240,2
RB Deuce McAllister 80,1 30 0
TE Boo Williams 0 10 0
WR Joe Horn 0 80,1 0
WR Donte Stallworth 0 30 0
WR Jerome Pathon 0 70,1 0
PK John Carney 1 FG 3 XP -

KC (3-5) vs NO (3-5)

Game Prediction: KC 31, NO 24

The Saints have a Top 5 worst defense in every category which should warm the heart of the Chiefs who are not supposed to be only 3-5 this season. The Saints are also 3-5 with no major surprise there and with both teams coming off losses, both teams are getting desperate.

The potential absence of Priest Holmes would be a concern in most games but against the Saints who have never allowed less than 20 points in any game this year? Just allows someone else to score for a change.

Update: As expected, it appears that Priest Holmes will be held out this week and Derrick Blaylock will be getting the start.

Boo Williams has been missing practice with a sprained neck and is questionable to play. I have downgraded his numbers and he may not play since he'll likely be a gametime decision.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

Just when the Chiefs seemed back to their obscene scoring ways, the discover that their defense is letting the opponent do that as well. And in Tampa Bay, just a little bit more. The Chiefs have only won once this season on the road which, of course, was their toughest matchup against the Ravens.

Quarterback: Trent Green started slowly this season but has thrown for over 300 yards in three of the last four games. In the last two weeks, he's had three touchdowns in each game and no less than 369 yards. Green is doing just fine now and should love the Saints secondary.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes suffered a strained medial collateral ligament and may not play this week. Hopefully this will not become a game time decision but the injury was enough to force Holmes from the game last week. Derrick Blaylock did not play last week due to a thigh injury but is expected to start if Holmes is not ready. Larry Johnson received playing time last week with Holmes out but that was more a "see what he can do" than it was a sign that he was overtaking Blaylock on the depth chart.

Wide Receivers: It finally happened. With all the scores and passing yards by Green lately, Johnnie Morton finally caught a touchdown pass in two consecutive games. They are his only scores of the year but Eddie Kennison still has yet to score. Kennison actually led the wideouts with 104 yards on six receptions last week but is not an endzone target.

This week should be a great opportunity for another wideout score if Gonzalez does not yet again take most of the action.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez is quickly zooming back to the top of the tight end heap though Antonio Gates will make the top spot almost impossible to secure again. Gonzalez had three scores and 248 yards in just the last two weeks. When the passing yardage goes up, it goes straight to Gonzalez first before spreading to other players.

Match Against the Defense: Like a fantasy football smorgasbord.

The Saints have allowed 11 passing touchdowns in the last three games and between 257 and 425 yards. Start Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez. Morton and even Kennison if you have the need.

The Saints rushing defense has been statistically good because opponents have been so unchallenged when passing the ball. It is a safe bet that even Blaylock will have a good game but by past history, he'll likely not have a huge game because the passing has been so easy.

Pre-Game Notes - NO

The Saints offense has been good at throwing points on the board this year though many were merely trash time fare. Losing 43 to 17 in San Diego likely took all the wind from the sails of this team and there's plenty of speculation that Jim Haslett may not see 2005 with the same employer. There is a realistic fear that this team is starting to fall apart from the top down.

Quarterback: Aaron Brooks has thrown a score in all but one game this season but he's only managed two or more touchdowns twice all year. He's led an offense that been scoring well enough but with a defense that has stopped few teams, he cannot manufacture wins with only one score in most weeks.

Running Backs: After such a big 2003 campaign, Deuce McAllister only has one game over 100 yards this season but has scored five touchdowns in the last three games. The yardage is no longer there for him this season with a weaker offensive line and only two games that have allowed at least 20 carries.

Wide Receivers: Joe Horn has easily been the preferred target for Brooks and has four touchdowns while both Jerome Pathon and Donte' Stallworth both have only scored once. Stallworth has all but disappeared as the season progresses and has been replaced by Jerome Pathon in recent games. Pathon has turned in a high game of 94 yards but only three times has exceeded 50 yards this year.

Tight Ends: Boo Williams was questionable last week from his hamstring strain but managed to play. He ended up with his best game of the season with seven catches for 65 yards and one score against the Chargers. He only had one catch in the previous two weeks.

Match Against the Defense: If you have been waiting for McAllister to go off this season, here is his best chance so far. The Chiefs have been ripped by runners on the road and even Pittman had three scores last week. The only way that McAllister should see anything less than a big game is if the Saints fall behind early and have to abandon the run - a distinct possibility. This team is just wobbling right now and facing a powerful offense will only further expose their Achilles heel of a defense. I don't like the emotional situation in New Orleans now and that has to play out onto the field. Haslett has likely lost the ability to motivate the troops and there are some who said he never really had it.

If there is a significant trash time, then Brooks should manage at least a decent game with a good upside for some big fantasy points. That all points to Joe Horn who collects almost all the significant scores and yardage though Pathon is a nice play this week as well.

KC NO 2004 Averages NO KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
269
283
Pass yards
234
244
1.5
1.8
Pass TDs
1.3
1.8
0.8
0.6
Interceptions
0.5
1
5
5
Rush yards
14
12
0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.1
0.4
---
---
RB's
---
---
141
130
Rush yards
77
96
2.3
1.1
Rush TDs
0.8
1
47
49
Receive yards
28
46
0.1
0.3
Receive TD's
0
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
146
186
Receive yards
172
150
0.4
0.8
Receive TD's
0.8
0.8
---
---
TE's
---
---
76
50
Receive yards
34
48
1
0.9
Receive TD's
0.5
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.9
1.8
Field Goals
1.6
0.9
3.8
3.3
Extra Points
2.3
2.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.1
0.9
Fumbles
1
0.8
1
0.5
Interceptions
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.4
2.4
1.9
Sacks
2
2
0
0.1
Safeties
0
0
Chiefs (3-5)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
21-24 HOU
27-24 @BAL
Week 5 bye
16-22 @JAX
56-10 ATL
45-35 IND
31-34 @TB
Week 10 @NO
Week 11 NE
Week 12 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD
Saints (3-5)
Score Opp.
7-21 SEA
30-27 SF
28-25 @STL
10-34 @ARI
17-20 TB
31-38 MIN
31-26 @OAK
Week 8 bye
17-43 @SD
Week 10 KC
Week 11 DEN
Week 12 @ATL
Week 13 CAR
Week 14 @DAL
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 ATL
Week 17 @CAR