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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 10, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Mon 9 PM
PIT at CLE* BAL at NYJ CIN at WAS BUF at NE* PHI at DAL*
TB at ATL* KC at NO* NYG at ARZ Bye Week: Bye Week:
DET at JAX* CHI at TEN* CAR at SF DEN MIA
HOU at IND SEA at STL MIN at GB* OAK SD
  Minnesota Rush Catch Pass
QB Daunte Culpepper 30 0 200,1
RB Mewelde Moore 30 10 0
RB Onterrio Smith 70,1 20 0
TE Jermaine Wiggins 0 50 0
WR Nate Burleson 0 50 0
WR Marcus Robinson 0 40,1 0
WR Kelly Campbell 0 20 0
PK Morten Andersen 2 FG 2 XP -
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,2
RB Ahman Green 110,1 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 20 0
WR Javon Walker 0 100,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 60,1 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 20 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 20 0
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 3 XP -

MIN (5-3) vs GB (4-4)

Game Prediction: MIN 20, GB 27

This is always a fun game and last year these teams both won on the road in their annual matchups. This time around the Packers are on a three game winning streak and coming off a bye week. The Vikings have lost their last two games and are finding that life without Randy is a life better left unexamined.

Update: Mewelde Moore has not practiced this week and is questionable to play. I am removing him from the projections and his yards will be shared between both Michael Bennett and Moe Williams.

Randy Moss, of course, is now officially been called out this week.

Pre-Game Notes - MIN

The Vikings did a nice job in Indianapolis last week, helped by the opening kickoff return for a touchdown and while they played tough, the reality is unavoidable. This is a different team without Randy Moss on the field.

Quarterback: Daunte Culpepper was riding high with three games of five touchdowns in his first five weeks. He had thrown for over 343 yards in four straight games. And then Randy grabbed the back of his leg.

In the three games of Moss not healthy, Culpepper has not thrown for more than one touchdown and has not exceeded 231 passing yards. Just no comparison to the high-flying, carefree days of Moss splitting the seam.

Running Backs: The never ending well is once again full. Onterrio Smith took the lead last week and gained 80 rushing yards with one score while Michael Bennett also had five carries for 18 yards. Moe Williams had a carry for 13 yards and now Mewelde Moore is expected back this week as well.

Early word has Smith retaining his primary role with help from Moore... Bennett... and Williams. No wonder Culpepper's numbers are decreasing. He's busy enough figuring out who gets the handoff. I am projecting for Smith as the primary and Moore as relief but as has been shown, the ratios could change and likely will change game to game depending on the situation and hot hand. Smith is the safest starter. For now.

Wide Receivers: With Randy Moss out, Marcus Robinson had a nice game in week eight but only turned in three catches for 23 yards last week though he has been hampered by a sprained foot. Kelly Campbell and Nate Burleson both only had one catch though Burleson scored.

Moss is still doubtful to play this week and I am not projecting for him. Expect the same crew - Robinson, Campbell and Burleson.

Tight Ends: When Jermaine Wiggins had two scores and 56 yards in week six, the expectation was that he would continue to figure in heavily with Moss out. He had 63 yards on five catches against the Colts but only 27 yards the previous week against the Giants.

Match Against the Defense: Randy Moss has long been a thorn for the Packers. Without him, the nature of this game changes. But for reasons unknown, the Packers have only won once at home with three losses and reversed that ratio on the road.

The Green Bay rush defense should be assaulted like never before by a Viking team this week. They've allowed seven rushing scores this season to running backs and a couple of monster games though none in the last four weeks. Expect that Smith has a moderate game here with a nice chance of scoring as long as it is not stolen by Moore. Or Bennett. Or Williams. Or Culpepper for that matter.

Culpepper will be challenged to score more than once as he has the last three weeks. Robinson has the best matchup and is most likely though Wiggins is a close second.

The Packers have allowed at least one passing score every week but never more than two in the last five games. They've been on bye preparing for this game and should manage to hold the passing numbers lower than the Colts last week.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

The Packers were looking like complete non-factors this season when they lost four games in a row, especially with three of them at home. Since then they have strung together three straight wins and won every game by at least 14 points. With the NFC North up for grabs this season, it wouldn't be a huge surprise for Green Bay to continue to ascend the rankings and their schedule is not daunting - if they remain the Packers of the last three games.

The Packers are coming off their bye week.

Quarterback: Brett Favre has been bothered by a sore thumb and swollen hand this season but that hasn't stopped him from throwing at least one score in every game this year. Favre has 14 touchdowns in his first eight games which safely keeps him at his productive average of 24+ touchdowns a season. And with 11 interceptions, he's still making games too interesting but the bye week should help to heal his hand.

Running Backs: Ahman Green opened the year with three scores and 247 rushing yards in his first two games. Then he fumbled three times and never was better than 81 yards in his next four games calling into immediate question his running and the offensive line. His final two games before the bye week was vintage Green - 210 total yards and four touchdowns.

Wide Receivers: Since Robert Ferguson has been relegated to a bit player even when healthy, the Packers passing game has been all about Donald Driver ( 543 yards, 4 TD's) and Javon Walker ( 781 yards, 7 TD's). Walker has been the key to the passing game with four performances over 100 yards and scoring in over half the games. Driver has either scored or been over 100 yards in each of the last three games - all wins. There are no other significant receivers for the Packers but these two have been solid green and gold.

Tight Ends: While Bubba Franks has scored in two games this season, both of his next games were less than 20 yards receiving. He has marginal fantasy value but guessing which games he will not score is far easier than the ones he will have a touchdown. And he rarely gets much more than 20 yards in an game.

Match Against the Defense: Ahman Green had big games against the Vikings in both matchups last season and he should be good for one of his better efforts of the season in this game. This is a chance for the Packers to force a tie in the NFC North when the Vikings are at their weakest and should set up a very interesting week 16 matchup in Minneapolis.

Expect that Brett Favre, sore hand and all, throws at least two scores but there will likely not be a need for more than that. He can burn this secondary but Green should be enough and the Vikings are coming off a short week to yet another road game.

MIN GB 2004 Averages GB MIN
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
294
229
Pass yards
277
259
2.6
1.9
Pass TDs
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.8
Interceptions
1.4
0.5
23
10
Rush yards
3
14
0.1
0
Rush TDs
0
0.4
 
---
RB's
---
 
102
101
Rush yards
114
98
0.3
0.9
Rush TDs
0.9
1.1
69
36
Receive yards
57
46
0.1
0.5
Receive TD's
0.3
0
 
---
WR's
---
 
181
155
Receive yards
200
174
2.3
1.3
Receive TD's
1.5
0.9
 
---
TE's
---
 
43
41
Receive yards
24
41
0.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.4
0.5
 
---
PK's
---
 
1.3
0.9
Field Goals
1.3
1.4
2.9
3
Extra Points
3
2.8
 
---
DEF/ST
---
 
0.6
1
Fumbles
0.3
0.6
0.5
1.4
Interceptions
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.1
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
2.5
0.6
Sacks
1.8
2.1
0.0
0
Safeties
0
0
Vikings (5-3)
Score Opp.
35-17 DAL
16-27 @PHI
27-22 CHI
Week 4 bye
34-28 @HOU
38-31 @NO
20-3 TEN
13-34 NYG
28-31 @IND
Week 10 @GB
Week 11 DET
Week 12 JAX
Week 13 @CHI
Week 14 SEA
Week 15 @DET
Week 16 GB
Week 17 @WAS
Packers (4-4)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
38-10 @DET
41-20 DAL
28-14 @WAS
Week 9 bye
Week 10 MIN
Week 11 @HOU
Week 12 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI