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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 17, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
DAL at BAL NYJ at CLE* DEN at NO* SD at OAK* GB at HOU
STL at BUF PIT at CIN SF at TB* ATL at NYG Mon 9 PM
ARZ at CAR* DET at MIN* Sun 4 PM WAS at PHI NE at KC
IND at CHI* TEN at JAX* MIA at SEA* *updated Times ET
  Dallas Rush Catch Pass
QB V. Testaverde 0 0 190,1
RB Eddie George 40 10 0
RB Richie Anderson 30 30 0
TE Jason Witten 0 50,1 0
WR Keyshawn Johnson 0 50 0
WR Quincy Morgan 0 30 0
PK Bill Cundiff 1 FG 1 XP -
  Baltimore Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Boller 0 0 200,1
RB Jamal Lewis 100,1 20 0
TE Wilcox/Jones 0 30 0
WR Travis Taylor 0 50,1 0
WR Clarence Moore 0 50 0
WR Kevin Johnson 0 30 0
PK Matt Stover 3 FG 2 XP -

DAL (3-6) vs BAL (6-3)

Game Prediction: DAL 10, BAL 23

The Cowboys have lost their last two games and the Ravens have won their last two. No real reason why those trends should change this week.

Pre-Game Notes - DAL

The nice factor in the Cowboys decline this season has been the relative predictability of it. With no running game and a passing game that only gets progressively smaller, the worsening defense makes this team look lucky to have three wins this year. With three games in a matter of 11 days, the only optimism by Thanksgiving for the Cowboys is that the next day will see the run rise again and eventually, it will be coming through a new stadium.

The Cowboys come off the worst loss in Texas Stadium in decades and it was the most points allowed to an opponent in the history of Texas Stadium. It is a record-breaking year. Just not the good kind.

Quarterback: Each week the reporters query Bill Parcells when the swap for Drew Henson will be made. Each week, Parcells stands by Testaverde and sounds just a bit gruffer and short in his willingness to describe why he remains with the 41-year old quarterback. With a brutal road game following a brutal home loss, this is not time to throw Henson into the mix. But his time will come, and sooner than later at this rate.

Running Backs: Julius Jones is expected back likely in a week or so but shouldn't figure in this week at the very least. The worst Jones can do is nothing which is about descriptive of what has transpired in his absence. Eddie George scored on Monday night, but only gained 39 yards on 11 carries. Richie Anderson figures in for about half a dozen runs a game and even Reshard Lee gets playing time. Put it all together and there still is little fantasy impact here.

Wide Receivers: The loss of Terry Glenn has been a disaster to an already lack-luster group of wideouts. The secondary now knows that Keyshawn Johnson is the only wideout of concern in every game. Johnson only had 53 yards on four catches last week in a game that the Cowboys trailed terribly for the final 45 minutes. Quincy Morgan finally returned from his hamstring strain but only had one catch for 21 yards in spite of getting thrown six passes.

There is Keyshawn with the possession role that is typically good for about 50-60 yards in a game now that Glenn is gone. There are no other wideouts that have made any difference. Morgan has a chance if only because of the tremendous need for someone to step up but so far he has not been a factor.

Tight Ends: Like several other NFL teams, the Cowboys have elected to make their tight end become the focal point of the offense. Jason Witten comes off his career best game with 133 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles and now has five scores on the year and two 100 yard games. Witten is quickly cementing his place as a top 5 tight end in the NFL.

Match Against the Defense: The Cowboys on a short week coming off a humiliating loss. Not a recipe for a big effort on the road against perhaps the best defense in the league.

There have been a few teams that have ran successfully against the Ravens, but there's nothing even close as to that talent level for the Cowboys. Do not expect a rushing score and if George can notch more than 50 rushing yards it will exceed expectations.

Vinny goes against a defense that has only allowed visitors to throw for three passing scores this year. If Vinny can throw for over 200 yards here, that too will exceed expectations. This is the same defense that held Tony Gonzalez to only 42 yards and that limits the only weapon that Vinny still has success in using.

Pre-Game Notes - BAL

The Ravens are still two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North, but at 6-3 they are firmly entrenched as a team likely to get a wild card this season. Facing one of the worst secondaries in the league, even Kyle Boller looks pretty good this week.

Quarterback: Kyle Boller comes off his best game of the season with a relatively astronomic 213 passing yards and two passing scores. The game against the Jets was the first time Boller has thrown for two scores this year and only the third time he had no turnovers. It was only the second time he had more than 154 yards passing in any game.

Running Backs: Jamal Lewis ran 30 times for only 71 yards last week but should have an easier time against the Cowboys on Sunday. Jonathan Ogden should be back this week which only helps matters and Lewis still has yet to exceed 100 yards more than twice this year.

Wide Receivers: Clarence Moore did not waste much time in becoming a factor in the Raven's passing game. Since becoming the starting split end, Moore has already become the leading scorer for the Raven wideouts and in Baltimore it only takes one game with two touchdowns to tie with Randy Hymes.

Travis Taylor was back down to only 42 yards last week but he's still getting the most passes of any players. Until Todd Heap returns, he'll likely continue in that role as sparse as it has proven to be for fantasy points.

Tight Ends: Todd Heap will still likely miss this week but there is a chance he'll be back sometime between week 12 and week one of next season. His absence has not forced the Ravens to throw to other players. It's just meant lower scores for Baltimore.

Match Against the Defense: Jamal Lewis will likely have a good game here but mostly from sheer bulk of carries, not from a big rushing average. He's fresh with so much time off this year and with Ogden's possible return this week, Lewis should manage to at least turn in a solid game.

The interesting part of the matchup is how well Boller will attack a porous Dallas secondary. This week is the best chance for Travis Taylor to score so far in 2003. If you've been waiting to start him, and no one is blaming you, this should be the one week that he might actually do something. If he doesn't, he'll be the first quarterback that hasn't.

DAL BAL 2004 Averages BAL DAL
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
256
199
Pass yards
146
235
1.3
0.7
Pass TDs
0.6
2.1
1.2
1.2
Interceptions
0.7
0.4
3
13
Rush yards
10
9
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.4
0.1
 
---
RB's
---
 
88
92
Rush yards
118
113
0.7
0.4
Rush TDs
0.7
0.7
34
24
Receive yards
20
43
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.2
 
---
WR's
---
 
151
139
Receive yards
94
161
0.7
0.4
Receive TD's
0.3
1.6
 
---
TE's
---
 
72
36
Receive yards
32
36
0.7
0.2
Receive TD's
0.1
0.4
 
---
PK's
---
 
1.0
1.8
Field Goals
1.8
1.8
2.1
1.1
Extra Points
1.8
3.2
 
---
DEF/ST
---
 
0.1
0.8
Fumbles
0.7
0.9
0.4
0.7
Interceptions
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.1
Touchdowns
0.7
0.2
1.9
2.6
Sacks
3.1
1.7
0.1
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Cowboys (3-6)
Score Opp.
17-35 @MIN
19-12 CLE
21-18 @WAS
Week 4 bye
10-26 NYG
20-24 PIT
20-41 @GB
31-21 DET
3-26 @CIN
21-49 PHI
Week 11 @BAL
Week 12 CHI
Week 13 @SEA
Week 14 NO
Week 15 @PHI
Week 16 WAS
Week 17 @NYG
Ravens (6-3)
Score Opp.
3-20 @CLE
30-13 PIT
23-9 @CIN
24-27 KC
17-10 @WAS
Week 6 bye
20-6 BUF
10-15 @PHI
27-13 CLE
20-17 @NYJ
Week 11 DAL
Week 12 @NE
Week 13 CIN
Week 14 NYG
Week 15 @IND
Week 16 @PIT
Week 17 MIA