fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 17, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
DAL at BAL NYJ at CLE* DEN at NO* SD at OAK* GB at HOU
STL at BUF PIT at CIN SF at TB* ATL at NYG Mon 9 PM
ARZ at CAR* DET at MIN* Sun 4 PM WAS at PHI NE at KC
IND at CHI* TEN at JAX* MIA at SEA* *updated Times ET
  Denver Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Plummer 0 0 260,3
RB Reuben Droughns 120,1 20 0
TE Jeb Putzier 0 30,1 0
WR Rod Smith 0 100,1 0
WR Darius Watts 0 40 0
WR Ashley Lelie 0 60,1 0
PK Jason Elam 1 FG 4 XP -
  New Orleans Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Brooks 0 0 200,1
RB Deuce McAllister 80,1 30 0
TE Boo Williams 0 30 0
WR Joe Horn 0 30 0
WR Donte Stallworth 0 30 0
WR Jerome Pathon 0 60,1 0
PK John Carney 1 FG 2 XP -

DEN (6-3) vs NO (4-5)

Game Prediction: DEN 31, NO 17

The Broncos are currently tied with the Chargers for the AFC West lead and with the next two games against OAK and SD, they will be tempted to look beyond the Saints. However, the Saints lack of any defense means that Denver can probably already start licking the stamp for this week's game.

Update: Joe Horn tweaked his knee in practice and was held out on Thursday. He is still expected to play but I have lowered his numbers slightly on the chance he may be limited.

Pre-Game Notes - DEN

The Denver defense should be enough to defuse the Saints threat and with a sound rushing game balanced by a very productive passing attack, this game should be over by halftime.

Quarterback: Jake Plummer has been on fire the last few weeks, throwing four touchdowns in each of his last two games including the 9th best game ever by a NFL quarterback when he threw for 499 yards against the Falcons. He currently has 19 touchdowns on the season against nine interceptions. He has thrown for more than 234 yards only three times all season, but he's become a multi-touchdown machine in the last five games with 14 touchdowns thrown. Plummer the runner is gone now, but this new passing version has been deadly.

Running Backs: Reuben Droughns has only started five games this season but already has four 100+ rushing yard efforts and has crested the century mark in every game if you include receiving yardage. The oddity is that he rarely ever scores. He only has one touchdown rushing and another receiving in spite of averaging over 30 touches a game.

Wide Receivers: The recent flood of Plummer touchdowns has directly benefited the wideouts with Ashley Lelie scoring in four of the last five games and Rod Smith currently on a three game streak for scoring. Other than Smith's 208 yard effort in week eight against the Falcons, no other wideout has managed a 100 yard game but with all those touchdowns to share, both Smith and Lelie have been fantasy gems the last several weeks.

Darius Watts as the #3 has only scored once this season and other than that one game, he rarely managed more than one catch for around 20 yards in a game.

Tight Ends: Other than the odd week seven game against the Bengals, Jeb Putzier has been consistently between 40 and 60 yards each Sunday with two touchdowns scored in the last four games. While you cannot count on those scores, he is reliable for almost 50 yards a game which is high for the average tight end.

Match Against the Defense: Reuben Droughns should have little trouble notching another 100 yard game here and alone will likely control the game while the Bronco defense tries to make Brooks make mistakes.

Plummer has not been throwing for a ton of yardage this season in most games, but he's been deadly with the touchdown passes. The Saints have allowed 12 passing scores in the last four games and that makes Plummer a great chance to post some good points this week. The only limiting factor is if the defense can keep the Saints from scoring and allow Droughns to take most of the action in the game.

The Saints have been especially weak against the tight end this season. Putzier has a great chance to score here, especially with the concern that Droughns will give the linebackers.

Pre-Game Notes - NO

The always inconsistent Saints played above their heads again last week, taking down the Chiefs in spite of getting ripped on the ground. The surprising fact was that the Saints defense forced so many turnovers and prevented the Chiefs from doing much in the redzone. Not likely to happen two weeks in a row.

Quarterback: Aaron Brooks has been a solid fantasy quarterback this season and he has yet to be a spectacular one. He threw for 259 yards and one score last week with additional touchdown rushed in as well. He has scored in all but one game this year but only twice had more than one passing score. Going against a sound secondary in Denver, he'll likely do well enough to maintain his average.

Running Backs: Deuce McAllister comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 127 yards and one score against the Chiefs though he had no catches in the game. McAllister now has scored in his last four games but will have a tougher time keeping that streak alive against Denver.

McAllister twisted his right knee and ankle last week but continued to play. He's expected to be okay this weekend.

Wide Receivers: Joe Horn had a season best last week as well, catching five passes for 167 yards and one score against the Chiefs and he has five touchdowns on the season. His good production is a must for the Saints' offense to work since he is the only wideout that does much. Donte Stallworth has lost his starting job and hasn't managed more than 45 yards in the last five weeks. Jerome Pathon only had 34 yards last week and one has one score on the year.

With the Saints, it's either Horn having a big day and the Saints winning, or it will likely be a loss. Now that he faces Champ Bailey, chances are this is down week for Horn though Pathon should see an uptick in opportunity.

Tight Ends: Boo Williams has battled injuries this season and was questionable to play last week with a neck sprain. He suited up on Sunday but only managed to log 29 yards on three catches. Against a good set of corners this week, the Saints wideouts should see better coverage which will see Williams become more important.

Match Against the Defense: The Denver defense has allowed five rushing scores in the last three games and there is little doubt that the Saints will be leaning on McAllister this week. Expect him to turn in a moderate game and he'll need to pop a long run if he is going to doing much more.

Brooks faces a secondary that has allowed only one team to throw for more than one score and all but two teams have remained less than 200 yards passing. Joe Horn will undoubtedly draw Champ Bailey which will depress his numbers. Boo Williams goes against a defense that has not allowed a tight end to score this year and the prime players to succeed have been the #2 or #3 wideouts that do not get the Bailey love. This is a decent chance for Pathon to get back into the endzone.

DEN NO 2004 Averages NO DEN
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
254
286
Pass yards
237
177
2.1
1.7
Pass TDs
1.2
0.7
1.1
0.8
Interceptions
0.6
0.3
12
6
Rush yards
13
18
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.2
0.2
---
---
RB's
---
---
120
136
Rush yards
82
74
0.3
1.1
Rush TDs
0.8
0.7
33
48
Receive yards
27
14
0.6
0.2
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
171
187
Receive yards
177
137
1.1
0.8
Receive TD's
0.8
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
48
53
Receive yards
33
28
0.4
0.8
Receive TD's
0.4
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.7
1.8
Field Goals
1.7
1.3
2.4
3.1
Extra Points
2.3
1.6
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.4
0.8
Fumbles
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
Interceptions
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.2
Touchdowns
0.2
0.1
2.1
2.1
Sacks
2.0
0.9
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Broncos (6-3)
Score Opp.
34-24 KC
6-7 @JAX
23-13 SD
16-13 @TB
20-17 CAR
31-3 @OAK
10-23 @CIN
28-41 ATL
31-13 HOU
Week 10 bye
Week 11 @NO
Week 12 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 MIA
Week 15 @KC
Week 16 @TEN
Week 17 IND
Saints (4-5)
Score Opp.
7-21 SEA
30-27 SF
28-25 @STL
10-34 @ARI
17-20 TB
31-38 MIN
31-26 @OAK
Week 8 bye
17-43 @SD
27-20 KC
Week 11 DEN
Week 12 @ATL
Week 13 CAR
Week 14 @DAL
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 ATL
Week 17 @CAR