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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 17, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
DAL at BAL NYJ at CLE* DEN at NO* SD at OAK* GB at HOU
STL at BUF PIT at CIN SF at TB* ATL at NYG Mon 9 PM
ARZ at CAR* DET at MIN* Sun 4 PM WAS at PHI NE at KC
IND at CHI* TEN at JAX* MIA at SEA* *updated Times ET
  New England Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 0 0 230,2
RB Kevin Faulk 20 20 0
RB Corey Dillon 100,1 10 0
TE Daniel Graham 0 10 0
WR David Patten 0 50,1 0
WR Bethel Johnson 0 30 0
WR David Givens 0 60,1 0
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP -
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 240,2
RB Derrick Blaylock 100,1 30 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 60,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 70,1 0
WR Dante Hall 0 20 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 60 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 3 XP -

NE (8-1) vs KC (3-6)

Game Prediction: NE 24, KC 27

This is the Monday night game and so far Kansas City has played very well on the national stage.

Pre-Game Notes - NE

The success of the Patriots truly is a testament to Bill Belichick and his staff. They've lost enough players so far that most teams (Think, oh, the Panthers for instance) would fall apart under similar circumstances. Not these guys. They have manufactured players to fill in where the need is greatest and in a manner heart-warming to the football purist. These guys are playing like they are all just football players - not just some specific position that their agent sells.

Quarterback: Tom Brady - write it down. About 230 yards and two scores. He has scored twice in six of nine games and four of the last five matchups have him with between 230 to 234 yards. Now there's consistency.

Running Backs: Corey Dillon comes off a huge effort against the tough Bills defense. He gained 151 yards on 26 carries and has crested the 100 yard mark in each of his last four games. The health issues with wideouts this year has not really mattered because Brady can just hand off the ball and get four or five yards.

Kevin Faulk got into the fun with 13 carries for 61 yards last week but that's an aberration. This is clearly Dillon's game and Faulk only matters when it is a passing down or the game is already well in hand.

Wide Receivers: David Patten had the lone wideout score last week and gained 43 yards while David Givens led the crew with five catches for 66 yards. The two trade off almost weekly on which one does the best and both have filled the void left by Deion Branch who evidently is in the witness protection program. Somehow Branch has missed the last seven games and yet there is no official word what his exact injury is other than "leg".

Troy Brown is now doubling as a cornerback on some plays which has taken him more from the passing scheme.

David Givens was blasted late in the game on Sunday and left the field. He was reported to have had his "wind knocked from him". No word, of course, if there is an injury or not. I'll assume not but with the Patriots you'll never know.

Tight Ends: All those fantasy owners who still hold on to Daniel Graham in memory of his five touchdown start to the season were rewarded with yet another one catch for nine yards last week. Christian Fauria actually caught a touchdown but don't even think about picking him up.

Match Against the Defense: The Achilles heel of the Chiefs is the defense, and not just one facet of it. The entire defense from safety to defensive tackle and everything between the cornerbacks.

The Patriots have the choice of all Kansas City opponents - how to score?

Considering the success of Dillon, it is a safe bet he'll turn in a good game at Arrowhead as a way to keep the crowd out of it and to slow the game down. Brady should have no problem with his standard 230/2 and actually have a nice chance to improve that mark. In this game you have to take the most likely scenarios by trend and not by matchup since it is pretty much all good. Look for two passing scores at least with them most likely split between Patten and Givens though they could go anywhere.

The last time the Chiefs were on Monday night football they were shockingly good on defense and held the Ravens to a loss but these Patriots will be bringing a far better passing attack.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

Losing to the Saints isn't a low point so much as just another step down on the ladder. The Chiefs won their last two home games and they won their last Monday night game. They need to hope for double luck this week.

Quarterback: Trent Green has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his last five games but two interceptions in each of the last two losses have been particularly damaging. In Tampa Bay against a good secondary, he still threw for 369 yards and three scores but this week will be a tough test with Holmes still out.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes was inactive last week and expected to miss this game as well with sprained ligaments in his knee. Derrick Blaylock had 186 yards rushing against the Saints which was the fifth best rushing effort ever by a Chief runner. Maybe it is the system? That and the Saints defense.

Wide Receivers: Eddie Kennison finally caught his first touchdown last week and gained 121 yards on seven receptions. Johnnie Morton only had 59 yards and one fumble after having scored in the two previous games. The increase in passing by Green has directly benefited these two wideouts and none other really. Matched up against the Patriots who are using Troy Brown as a cornerback now should make for a a decent opportunity again.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez only had six catches for 71 yards last week but that's after two games of over 120 yards. Even his bad games are better than the best games for most tight ends.

Match Against the Defense: This will be interesting and if the Patriots are able to stop the Chiefs, it will largely be because of a great scheme and game plan, not individual talent. On the road the Pats have allowed good runners to do well per carry, the only question being if they get enough runs to tally up a decent game. With Priest Holmes out, this is harder to gauge in spite of Blaylock's major effort last week.

Blaylock is certainly a safe fantasy start and should turn in at least a moderate game with a chance for a very good game if the Chiefs can somehow slow down the Pats offense.

Green faces a secondary that is almost beyond analysis because missing players have not really mattered. It is notable that New England has not allowed any tight end to score this season or to get more than 62 yards but Gonzalez is hardly the average tight end. The recent use of Morton and Kennison bodes well for a more balanced attack and should see moderate games by the principal receivers but not likely a big game. This will be a defensive battle by the Pats that the Chiefs will counteract initially with success in the running game. But there should be some fireworks later in the game and good fantasy points in the fourth quarter.

NE KC 2004 Averages KC NE
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
236
246
Pass yards
273
221
1.9
1.7
Pass TDs
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.0
Interceptions
0.9
1.3
1
11
Rush yards
5
10
0.0
0.4
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
123
99
Rush yards
146
98
0.6
1.0
Rush TDs
2.1
0.4
37
43
Receive yards
46
24
0.0
0.2
Receive TD's
0.1
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
170
156
Receive yards
151
161
1.2
0.8
Receive TD's
0.4
0.9
---
---
TE's
---
---
28
46
Receive yards
76
37
0.6
0.6
Receive TD's
0.9
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
2.6
1.0
Field Goals
1.0
1.2
2.7
2.8
Extra Points
3.6
1.4
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.9
Fumbles
0.1
0.9
1.3
0.9
Interceptions
1.0
0.9
0.1
0.3
Touchdowns
0.1
0.4
3.0
2.0
Sacks
2.6
1.9
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Patriots (8-1)
Score Opp.
27-24 IND
23-12 @ARI
Week 3 bye
31-17 @BUF
24-10 MIA
30-20 SEA
13-7 NYJ
20-34 @PIT
40-22 @STL
29-6 BUF
Week 11 @KC
Week 12 BAL
Week 13 @CLE
Week 14 CIN
Week 15 @MIA
Week 16 @NYJ
Week 17 SF
Chiefs (3-6)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
21-24 HOU
27-24 @BAL
Week 5 bye
16-22 @JAX
56-10 ATL
45-35 IND
31-34 @TB
20-27 @NO
Week 11 NE
Week 12 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD