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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 17, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
DAL at BAL NYJ at CLE* DEN at NO* SD at OAK* GB at HOU
STL at BUF PIT at CIN SF at TB* ATL at NYG Mon 9 PM
ARZ at CAR* DET at MIN* Sun 4 PM WAS at PHI NE at KC
IND at CHI* TEN at JAX* MIA at SEA* *updated Times ET
  San Francisco Rush Catch Pass
QB Tim Rattay 0 0 220,1
RB Kevan Barlow 60 10 0
TE Eric Johnson 0 70,1 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 0 80 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 20 0
WR Cedrick Wilson 0 50 0
PK Todd Peterson 2 FG 1 XP -
  Tampa Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brian Griese 0 0 250,2
RB Michael Pittman 90,1 20 0
RB Mike Alstott 20 0 0
TE Ken Dilger 0 50 0
WR Michael Clayton 0 100,2 0
WR Joe Jurevicius 0 30 0
WR Tim Brown 0 30 0
PK Martin Gramatica 1 FG 3 XP -

SF (1-8) vs TB (3-6)

Game Prediction: SF 13, TB 24

While the 49ers gently waft down through every bad record previously set in franchise history, the Buccaneers have won two of their last three games and are back at home where they had those two previous wins.

Update: I have included Mike Alstott in the projections since he has practiced this week and now is expected to play.

Pre-Game Notes - SF

Bad just isn't truly bad until you get pushed around by another 1-7 team.

Quarterback: Tim Rattay has been the only buffer between the offense and absolute futility. After throwing four interceptions last week and admitting that his injured forearm is not getting better, mediocrity is now a dot in the rear view mirror.

Running Backs: Kevan Barlow ran for two touchdowns against the Panthers but only gained 47 yards on 21 carries and after throwing the ball at a Panther defender after one play, he was tagged with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. After a tiff on the sideline with HC Dennis Erickson, Barlow did not finish the game while Maurice Hicks took eight carries for 46 yards in his first NFL playing time.

Barlow is still the starter, but anytime a team is 1-8 and a player gets into a disagreement with a headcoach, stranger things have happened. Worth keeping an eye on, especially if Hicks gets playing time and does something with it.

Wide Receivers: Cedrick Wilson comes off his first 100 yard game this year when he caught five passes for 101 yards last week. Brandon Lloyd only had 62 yards on five catches but scored for the fifth time in only six games. Knowing that the 49ers will be trailing in virtually every game this season, both Wilson and Lloyd have fantasy value though Rattay's arm injury could short-circuit a nice fantasy situation.

Tight Ends: Eric Johnson hasn't risen to the astronomic levels of a month ago, but a change in schemes has allowed him to get back to better output. He had 71 yards on six catches last week and now serves as an equally used target with the wideouts Lloyd and Wilson.

Match Against the Defense: Rattay has been much more limited since injuring his arm and will face a defense that allowed a monster game to Trent Green but otherwise has held visiting quarterbacks to less than 150 yards and only one score. Rattay will get some yardage, but more than one score is not likely.

Barlow should have a moderate game here unless the coaching staff gets cute. With the state of affairs being so poor on a 1-8 team, it's hard to rely on anything - let alone someone who has ticked off the headcoach who already had promoted Hicks from the practice squad because he was looking for "a spark".

Pre-Game Notes - TB

The Buccaneers lost last week in Atlanta, but the wins at home the previous two weeks were a sign that the team is improving.

Quarterback: Brian Griese continues to score with every start and after four games, he has thrown seven touchdowns against only two interceptions. Griese has been on a strange trend of throwing for big yardage every other week and that should hold true since he only had 174 yards against the Falcons and the 49ers come to visit this week.

Running Backs: Michael Pittman had over 100 yards in the two previous games but only managed 62 yards on 20 carries in Atlanta. Notable is that he still had every running back carry in the game except for one.

Wide Receivers: Michael Clayton continues to make his case for offensive rookie of the year. He had 90 yards and a score last week and hasn't turned in less than 61 yards in the last six weeks. That included four games with at least 90 yards receiving.

He gets little help from the rest of the wideouts. Tim Brown is evidently starting a new consecutive game record by catching one pass per week and Joey Galloway only had one catch for four yards before aggravating his groin yet again.

Tight Ends: The recent, and surprising, hero in the passing game lately has been Ken Dilger who has scored in each of the last two games while turning in 47 and 51 yards.

Match Against the Defense: It's usually all good against the 49ers. They've already allowed 13 rushing touchdowns and as much as 160 yards to running backs this season. The last two quarterbacks were Delhomme and Hasselbeck and both threw for at least 285 yards and three scores.

Look for a big game from Pittman but enough passing from Griese to make he and Clayton a viable start this week.

SF TB 2004 Averages TB SF
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
257
183
Pass yards
226
233
1.1
1.2
Pass TDs
1.2
1.9
1.3
0.9
Interceptions
0.7
0.3
5
13
Rush yards
4
6
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
81
109
Rush yards
81
107
0.8
0.8
Rush TDs
0.6
1.4
36
26
Receive yards
40
31
0.0
0.1
Receive TD's
0.2
0.2
---
---
WR's
---
---
143
115
Receive yards
147
156
0.9
0.7
Receive TD's
0.6
1.0
---
---
TE's
---
---
77
43
Receive yards
38
32
0.2
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.4
Field Goals
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.2
Extra Points
1.6
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.6
0.8
Fumbles
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.8
Interceptions
0.9
1.3
0.2
0.2
Touchdowns
0.2
0.2
2.1
3.0
Sacks
2.2
3.2
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
49ers (1-8)
Score Opp.
19-21 ATL
27-30 @NO
0-34 @SEA
14-24 STL
31-28 ARI
14-22 @NYJ
Week 7 bye
13-23 @CHI
27-42 SEA
27-37 CAR
Week 11 @TB
Week 12 MIA
Week 13 @STL
Week 14 @ARI
Week 15 WAS
Week 16 BUF
Week 17 @NE
Buccaneers (3-6)
Score Opp.
10-16 @WAS
6-10 SEA
20-30 @OAK
13-16 DEN
20-17 @NO
21-28 @STL
19-7 CHI
Week 8 bye
34-31 KC
14-24 @ATL
Week 11 SF
Week 12 @CAR
Week 13 ATL
Week 14 @SD
Week 15 NO
Week 16 CAR
Week 17 @ARI