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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 17, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
DAL at BAL NYJ at CLE* DEN at NO* SD at OAK* GB at HOU
STL at BUF PIT at CIN SF at TB* ATL at NYG Mon 9 PM
ARZ at CAR* DET at MIN* Sun 4 PM WAS at PHI NE at KC
IND at CHI* TEN at JAX* MIA at SEA* *updated Times ET
  Tennessee Rush Catch Pass
QB Steve McNair 0 0 240,1
RB Antowain Smith 40 10 0
TE Erron Kinney 0 20,1 0
WR Derrick Mason 0 70 0
WR Eddie Berlin 0 40 0
WR Drew Bennett 0 80 0
PK Gary Anderson 3FG 1 XP -
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 0 0 200,1
RB Fred Taylor 100,1 20 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 90,1 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 30 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 40 0
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -

TEN (3-6) vs JAX (6-3)

Game Prediction: TEN 16, JAX 20

This is a rematch of week three when the Jaguars beat the Titans 15-12. That was followed last year when the Titans won 10-3. Byron Leftwich and Chris Brown look like they'll miss this week. So, yet again, we'll miss all the fantasy points as well.

Update: Steve McNair has practiced the last two days and now appears to be the likely starter though the final decision is still likely "game time". I am projecting for him now but there is still a risk that he might sit and more so - that he does not finish the game and Volek has to come in as a closer.

Chris Brown was still wearing an immobilizing boot as of Thursday and has not practiced. I am not projecting for him as he appears most likely to sit out another game.

Pre-Game Notes - TEN

If it were not for the Bengals, the Titans would be winless at home this season.

Quarterback: Billy Volek took the start last week and turned in 334 yards and two scores in the loss to the Bears. He had 210 yards and two scores in the previous game versus the Bengals and has always been a capable backup for Steve McNair.

McNair missed his second game of the year when he served as the unused #2 quarterback last week and he hasn't played since week seven of the season. He is still bothered by his sore chest and I am projecting for Volek again until practice reports make McNair likely to play.

Running Backs: Chris Brown had a turf toe and yet still gained 147 yards against the Bengals in week eight. After sitting out during bye week, he returned to play against the Bears but was unable to finish the game due to his toe. He ended with only 62 yards on 20 carries. He is doubtful this week and I am assuming he will be held out. He had an MRI that did not show any new damage and actually it was better than before but it's clear he needs time off for it to heal.

Antowain Smith should get the start and that is a definite step down. Brown rushed for 101 yards and a score in week three against the Jaguars.

Wide Receivers: Volek has been good for Derrick Mason. Last week was only the third time Mason scored this year and he gained at least 85 yards in both starts by Volek. Drew Bennett finally got some action when he led the team with 148 yards on six catches with one touchdown against the Bears. That was easily his career best game. Volek has always been productive throwing to the starting wideouts and may have one more try before McNair returns.

Mason only had 43 yards in week three against the Jaguars while Bennett again was more productive with only 55 yards. Neither scored.

Tight Ends: One thing Volek has not done is lock onto any one tight end. Last week there were seven completions to three different tight ends and Shad Meier led the group with four catches for 18 yards. Erron Kinney made his first appearance since week three but only managed two catches for 14 yards.

Match Against the Defense: This is always a tough, defensive matchup and that is when the Titans are healthy which they clearly are not. With Brown out this week, the running game is very likely to stall and force Volek to throw. The Jaguars have been weak against the pass lately, with three quarterbacks exceeding 275 yards in the last four games.

Expect Volek to throw a great deal and that should benefit the tight ends as much as the wideouts. In the last six games, four different tight ends have scored and that could mean either Meier or Kinney this week. It is unlikely that Mason or Bennett will score since there have been only two receiving scores to opposing wideouts this year other than Marvin Harrison.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

The Jaguars get the job done in all sorts of ways, and more often than not - they do get the job done. They are currently tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead.

Quarterback: David Garrard filled in for Leftwich last week and threw for 198 yards and two scores - enough to make the difference in the game against the Lions. The Jaguars only passed for 124 yards and one score in the earlier meeting with Tennessee and that was the last game before Leftwich realized he could throw for 300 yards a game at will.

Garrard will take the start again this week.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor comes off his best game of the year, gaining 144 yards on 23 carries against the Lions for only his second 100 yard effort. Taylor had 81 yards and one score in the previous matchup against the Titans. He has only scored three times all season and last week allowed Greg Jones to score his first NFL touchdown.

Wide Receivers: It is very clear that Garrard knows where the money goes. He hit Jimmy Smith seven times for 109 yards and a score last week while completing only one pass to all the other wideouts on the team. Smith only had 58 yards in his previous game against the Titans.

Tight Ends: So tight that their hands won't open to catch passes.

Match Against the Defense: The last meeting in Tennessee was a hard fought affair as these often are but the Jaguars are playing much better since then. Taylor is running better and the passing took off immediately after week three. Garrard is at the helm for at least this week and while he won't be tossing the 300 yards like Leftwich was doing recently, he should be able to throw for one score with around 200 yards which is standard against the Titans.

Fred Taylor is the definite start this week, with a great opportunity to score . His last rushing touchdown was back in week three against these Titans.

TEN JAX 2004 Averages JAX TEN
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
213
227
Pass yards
235
223
1.1
1.2
Pass TDs
1.2
1.3
1.2
0.3
Interceptions
0.8
1.1
14
8
Rush yards
12
3
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.2
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
111
97
Rush yards
96
99
0.7
0.4
Rush TDs
0.3
0.9
34
46
Receive yards
46
23
0.2
0.1
Receive TD's
0.2
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
155
144
Receive yards
160
167
0.7
0.6
Receive TD's
0.8
0.6
---
---
TE's
---
---
28
41
Receive yards
29
34
0.3
0.4
Receive TD's
0.2
0.8
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.3
Field Goals
1.3
1.2
2.0
1.9
Extra Points
1.2
2.4
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.3
Fumbles
0.8
0.6
1.1
0.9
Interceptions
0.4
1.2
0.1
0.3
Touchdowns
0.0
0.3
2.3
2.6
Sacks
1.6
2.1
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.1
Tennessee (3-6)
Score Opp.
17-7 @MIA
17-31 IND
12-15 JAX
17-38 @SD
48-27 @GB
10-20 HOU
3-20 @MIN
27-20 CIN
Week 9 bye
17-19 CHI
Week 11 @JAX
Week 12 @HOU
Week 13 @IND
Week 14 KC
Week 15 @OAK
Week 16 DEN
Week 17 DET
Jaguars (6-3)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
15-12 @TEN
17-24 IND
21-34 @SD
22-16 KC
27-24 @IND
6-20 @HOU
Week 9 bye
23-17 DET
Week 11 TEN
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 PIT
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK