FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Well, last week was special. I think I can safely say that week 10 was the worst week of my career. Heck, I could have screwed up nuclear waste last week by merely touching it.

I wasn’t alone in my struggles (miserly does love company it seems) and many of the handicappers and touts fared little better. Looking at the Hilton Contest and the Golden Nugget Contest the number one selection was Cleveland (138-64), the second choice was Green Bay (123-27), the third was Houston (119-19), the fourth was Seattle (116-42), the fifth was Tampa Bay (114-46), and number six was Buffalo (106-31)…all big, fat losers. In fact, the average number of wins for the leaders in the contest was one, that’s right, just one winner per contestant, and these aren’t slouches, these guys ante up $5,000 to get into this contest.

The newsletters didn’t do any better. The college and pro consensus plays in the leading newsletters (the Gold Sheet, Phil Steel’s, Bryan Leonard’s, Andy Isko’s, etc.) went a combined 0-9 college and pro. Needless to say, the touts took to the airwaves on Monday and Tuesday to do damage control and to reassure clients that they didn’t all go mad at the same time. Money management, blaa, blaa, blaa. Bounce-back week, blaa, blaa, blaa, the usual rhetoric that flows from the Blvd. when their clients get scalped by the Sports Gods.

So let me make this clear, we stunk. This isn’t an exact science and you have weeks like this once in a while. All we can do is move on from here.

ST LOUIS AT BUFFALO

Vegas Line

STL -1 TOTAL 40

Predicted Outcome

BUF 20 STL 17

Records

STL

SU (5-4-0)

ATS (3-5-1), ATS AWAY (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U AWAY (3-1-0)

BUF

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (5-4-0), ATS HOME (3-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-5-0), O/U HOME (4-1-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEEINGS

Commentary

The forecast is for a lot of bad weather in the North East this weekend and bad weather favors the team that can run the ball. There’s a 40% chance of showers for this game and if it isn’t raining, it will certainly be windy in Buffalo.

Boy I really don’t like either side very much. I have a difficult time putting good money on the Bills. Buffalo QB Drew Bledsoe continues to hold the ball too long taking unnecessary sacks that put his team in second and third and long. As a result, the Bills offense cannot string together first downs. If Buffalo’s offense doesn’t get a short field either from a special teams’ play or a turnover, they don’t score. The good news is that the Bills should be able to run the ball. The Rams defense is giving up nearly five yards per carry. I would expect that with bad weather, Buffalo will try and pound out first downs on the ground and they should have some success this week.

The Rams offense isn’t made for outdoor, bad weather football. Playing at home in near perfect conditions at home, indoors, on the rug the Rams can use their team speed to its best advantage. Opposing cornerbacks have to play off St Louis’ receivers and respect that speed. However, as we’ve seen year-after-year, St Louis’ offense struggles on the road, and they struggle against teams that are bigger, more powerful, and used to playing in bad conditions. Buffalo has the NFL’s 4 th best passing defense and with the advantage of bad weather, the Bills corners will be able to play tight against the Rams receivers.

I think this game has a reasonably good chance of going Under the total if it’s windy and the Bills would have an edge if it’s actually raining. I’ll wait to see what the weather’s like on game day before I go to the window for a Bills’ ticket, so Under the total is the play for now.

DALLAS AT BALTIMORE

Vegas Line

BAL -6.5 TOTAL 36.5

Predicted Outcome

BAL 21 DAL 16

Records

DAL

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS AWAY (1-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U AWAY (3-1-0)

BUF

SU (6-3-0)

ATS (7-2-0), ATS HOME (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-5-0), O/U HOME (3-1-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

Baltimore ’s favored by eight points with Boller at quarterback? I know Dallas didn’t look very good last week against the Eagles but you have to be really down on the Cowboys to lay that kind of lumber with a Ravens team that struggles themselves on offense.

Opposing teams have shown that you can take away RB Jamal Lewis and Baltimore’s running game by playing eight and nine men in the box. If you can stop Lewis, you force Boller beat you. The Cowboys have an undersized front seven and Dallas’ rush defense will be tested against a much larger Baltimore offensive front putting more pressure on Dallas to bring up their safeties to take away the run and play man coverage on the Ravens wide receivers. That tactic, as you saw against the Eagles, can quickly become a disaster as Philadelphia played pitch and catch with 6’3” Terrell Owens against the Cowboys smaller corners. However, the Ravens aren’t exactly flush with Pro Bowl wide receivers right now so there may be less of an advantage than you’d think at first glance.

The Cowboys had an exceptionally poor showing on Monday night. In fact, it was Dallas HC Bill Parcells’ third worst defeat of his career. Moreover, now you have a Cowboys team that seems to be in disarray with QB Drew Henson coming out on ESPN and openly politicking for playing time. Dallas can’t run the ball no matter whom they play and they won’t run against the Ravens stingy defense. The alternative is to drop back and pass 40 times a game and putting the game on QB Vinny Testaverde’s shoulders hasn’t worked out at all well for the Cowboys so far this season.

I don’t like the Cowboys and I’m sure not going to lay over a touchdown with Baltimore. I think Dallas will cover, but I’m in no hurry to get to the window on this game.

NY JETS AT CLEVELAND

Vegas Line

PICK 37.5

Predicted Outcome

NYJ 17 CLE 16

Records

NYJ

SU (6-3-0)

ATS (4-4-1), ATS AWAY (2-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U AWAY (2-2-0)

CLE

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS HOME (4-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-5-0), O/U HOME (2-3-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

I’m not exactly running to the bank to bet the casino limit on this game either. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses: the Jets straight out blew the game last week with some pretty weak time management and the Browns got pounded at home in a bad loss against the Steelers. Either or both teams may have a hangover from their losses last Sunday and that has me leaning towards the Under here.

New York is the better team in this game, but they’ve yet to show they are a contender against the NFL’s leaders. A loss and a fail to cover against the Patriots and a loss and fail to cover against the Ravens the last two weeks has the wise guys wondering if New York is tough enough to compete with the NFL’s best or bounce back on the road in this contest.

Cleveland ’s offensive line can’t protect Garcia. I spent the better part of last Sunday afternoon screaming at the television as the Browns struggled against the Steelers blitz. If Cleveland had any kind of screen pass, either a bubble screen or a pass to a running back, they could have ripped off some big plays last week. Instead, the coaching staff had Garcia drop back in the pocket and get creamed, eventually losing the game on consecutive fumbles on sacks.

I can’t even talk myself into liking either team. Give me the Under in what should be a dull game.

PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI

Vegas Line

PIT -4.5 TOTAL 40.5

Predicted Outcome

PIT 27 CIN 17

Records

PIT

SU (8-1-0)

ATS (7-2-0), ATS AWAY (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U AWAY (2-2-0)

CIN

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS HOME (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-5-0), O/U HOME (0-4-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Blitzburgh is back with a vengeance. The Steelers defense spent last weekend burying the Browns quarterbacks while allowing only one touchdown on the road. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what Pittsburgh defensive coordinator and former Bengal HC Dick LeBeau will do to Bengals QB Carson Palmer. Its going to be blitz, blitz, and blitz some more in another game that may get ugly. The Steelers are number two in rush defense, number one in sacks, only give up 4.6 yards per play and 258 yards per game. I just do not see how the Bengals offense is going to roll over this defense.

On the other hand, the Bengals have been hot, especially at home. Cincinnati has won three of their last four games and is 2-2 ATS at home.

This may be a closer game than last week, but I’m not ready to fade the Steelers yet. Give me Pittsburgh and the over.

INDIANAPOLIS AT CHICAGO

Vegas Line

IND -7 TOTAL 44.5

Predicted Outcome

IND 31 CHI 17

Records

IND

SU (6-3-0)

ATS (5-3-1), ATS AWAY (2-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (7-2-0), O/U AWAY (3-1-0)

CHI

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (5-4-0), ATS HOME (1-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-5-0), O/U HOME (1-3-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

This should be the slaughter of the week. Chicago has won their last three games on defensive scores, turnovers, and special teams play while the Bears offensive statistics have been dreadful. QB Payton Manning has only three interceptions all season, so don’t expect Chicago to get another cheap touchdown this week.

The Bears winning streak has come against San Francisco (at home), New York Giants who are spiraling downward, and Tennessee without McNair. Sorry, but these teams’ offenses just don’t compare to the Colts. On the other hand, Chicago is dead last on offense with Krenzel at quarterback with the Bears QB completing well under 50% of his passes. On defense, Chicago’s two best defensive players (Urlacher and Lace Briggs) are out for this game. That is not a good thing if Chicago wants to keep this game close.

If the Bears get behind, they’re dead. This Chicago offense isn’t going to comeback, even against the Colts defense. I’ve pounded this game, even laying more than a touchdown. Give me the Colts in a big way.

DETROIT AT MINNESOTA

Vegas Line

MIN -7.5 TOTAL 48

Predicted Outcome

MIN 31 DET 21

Records

DET

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS AWAY (3-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U AWAY (3-2-0)

MIN

SU (5-4-0)

ATS (6-3-0), ATS HOME (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U HOME (2-2-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

I have the same thoughts on this game as I had with the Bears and Colts. We have one team that can score points in bunches but can’t play a lick of defense and the other team can’t move the ball on offense but lives on special teams play and defensive scores.

Detroit is another team that uses smoke and mirrors to stay in games. Detroit is near the bottom of the league on offense and needs another kick or punt return or a defensive touchdown to keep this close. They can get it as the Vikings have a habit of running the ball over in the worst circumstances possible when they are in the normal mid-season swoon. I don’t think it’s probable the Lions will get a defensive or special teams' touchdown, but it is possible.

Minnesota can score, especially at home under the dome but struggle to stop opposing offenses. Using the same logic that put me on the Colts, my guess is that the Vikings cover this big number.

If I had to choose between betting on either the Colts or the Vikings I’m betting the Colts with real money. Minnesota will play once again without WR Randy Moss while Manning has his entire WR corps. Also, QB Culpepper has a higher probability of throwing an interception that may give the Lions a garbage touchdown and a cover.

  ARIZONA AT CAROLINA

Vegas Line

CAR -2.5 TOTAL 37

Predicted Outcome

ARI 20 CAR 17

Records

ARI

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (6-3-0), ATS AWAY (3-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U AWAY (3-2-0)

CAR

SU (2-7-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS HOME (0-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-5-1), O/U HOME (1-3-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Crappy game #1. There may only be ten people watching this game in the entire country and I hope your not one of them. No offense if you’re a Cardinals or a Panthers’ fan, but I really hope neither team shows up because I just don’t want to watch this game.

Arizona is only one game out of the NFC West division lead. They’ve done it by playing solid defense and by not self-destructing on offense. RB E. Smith looks like he’s discovered the fountain of youth and the Cardinals talented WR corps in finally healthy. That may be enough even on the road against the beaten-up Panthers who haven’t covered at home all season.

Carolina showed some surprising fight last week in San Francisco. The Panthers came back from a 17 point deficit to win the game going away. I’m not sure the Panthers can come back with that kind of effort this week or if they have enough healthy bodies to match up with the Cardinals. I think getting three points is a pretty short line with Arizona. Give me the Cardinals in an upset.

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE

Vegas Line

No line

Predicted Outcome

NONE

Commentary

Another game I don’t want to watch. No number on this game as the health and status of both starting quarterbacks is still in question, so I’ll pass.

SAN FRANCISCO AT TAMPA BAY

Vegas Line

TB -8 TOTAL 32

Predicted Outcome

TB 20 SF 10

Records

SF

SU (1-8-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS AWAY (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U AWAY (2-2-0)

TB

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (3-4-2), ATS HOME (2-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (3-6-0), O/U HOME (1-3-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Crappy game #2. San Francisco blew last week’s game against the Panthers. I wouldn’t expect a great effort this week as they are likely still hung over from last Sunday’s debacle. On the other hand, laying eight with Tampa Bay just doesn’t excite me either. Tampa hasn’t been in the role of a big favorite all season and I don’t know how they are going to react here. Not a game I’m interested in.

DENVER AT NEW ORLEANS

Vegas Line

DEN -4.5 TOTAL 47

Predicted Outcome

DEN 24 NOR 21

Records

DEN

SU (6-3-0)

ATS (3-4-2), ATS AWAY (1-2-1)

OVER/UNDER (2-5-2), O/U AWAY (0-4-0)

NO

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS HOME (1-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U HOME (2-3-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

Great. Last week, New Orleans gives up over 500 yards on defense to the Chiefs and the game doesn’t go over the total and this week’s opponent ( Denver) can’t score on the road. I can’t play the under with the NFL’s worst defense on the field because I risk the Broncos covering this number on their own and I can’t take the over either because I can’t count on Jake Plummer not to do something stupid.

Getting 4.5 at home, I think the Saints are the play here. At 4-5 SU the Saints aren’t out of it yet so they should have some incentive to play hard in front of the home crowd. Denver comes off the bye week and that always seems to screw up a good team’s chemistry, especially on offense, on the road. I’ll wait to see to the last minute to see if I can catch a better number, but I’ll be on the Saints.

SEATTLE AT MIAMI

Vegas Line

SEA 10 TOTAL 37.5

Predicted Outcome

SEA 24 MIA 17

Records

MIA

SU (1-8-0)

ATS (2-7-0), ATS AWAY (1-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-4-1), O/U AWAY (2-1-0)

SEA

SU (5-4-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS HOME (1-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U HOME (2-1-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

It will be interesting to see if the Dolphins come out and play with some emotion here. Miami has had two weeks to work with their new coach so they’ve had a chance to get healthy, rest, and fix some of the problems that ail them. I think there’s a reasonable chance the Dolphins will give one of their better efforts of the season in this spot as kind of a last-ditch effort to save their season and avoid an embarrassment.

On the other hand, Seattle has proven each and every week that they are overrated. Let me rephrase that, the Seahawks have shown that you can’t trust them to cover any number, because they haven’t shown they can do what it takes to win games…little things like catching the football, completing passes, and covering receivers. I know I harp on this every week, but Seattle continues not to cover as a favorite and you’d think that one of these weeks, I’d get wise, the public will get smarter, and the money will begin to come in on their opponents. You’d think we’d get tired of losing our money, but here we go again, they’re 10 point favorites and money’s coming in on Seattle in a flat spot after a disappointing effort against the Rams last week. Go figure.

I don’t feel comfortable laying this kind of lumber with Seattle right now. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’m going to be betting against Seattle for the rest of the season or until this team begins to play with passion. That puts me on the Dolphins here.

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND

Vegas Line

SD -4 TOTAL 48

Predicted Outcome

SD 24 OAK 21

Records

SD

SU (6-3-0)

ATS (7-1-1), ATS AWAY (3-0-1)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U AWAY (1-3-0)

OAK

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS HOME (1-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U HOME (2-2-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

I’m not sure how either team is going to react here. San Diego was blowing teams away before the bye week and that extra week off always seems to hurt teams that are playing well. As an example, the Giants were 4-1 going into their bye week and came out and got smoked by the visiting Lions who were seven point dogs. The Giants haven’t been the game since. That said, the Chargers have creamed the Raiders in their last two games, 42-14 this season and 21-14 last and San Diego are almost certainly a better squad than when these two teams met in October.

Oakland is a mystery as well. Have they gotten it together during their off week or has this team quit? My best guess is that if the Raiders have got anything left, they will leave in on their home field this week. I’ll take the Oakland and the points here but will go to the window to get an under ticket with real money.

  ATLANTA AT NEW YORK GIANTS

Vegas Line

NYG -2.5 TOTAL 40.5

Predicted Outcome

ATL 24 NYG 10

Records

ATL

SU (7-2-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS AWAY (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-6-0), O/U AWAY (2-2-0)

NYG

SU (5-4-0)

ATS (5-4-0), ATS HOME (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-5-0), O/U HOME (2-2-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Rookie quarterback playing his first game and getting less than a field goal a 7-2 SU football team that has a history of kicking their tails? Oh, yea…I’m on the Falcons this week!

This game will not be close. The Giants offensive line just doesn’t match up well against the Falcons defensive line. Atlanta should be able to get pressure with just four rushers, but I’m sure they’re bringing at least six. The Falcons will blitz, blitz, and blitz Manning some more looking to get a couple of cheap scores on turnovers. I think New York will turn the ball over at least three times putting additional pressure on an injured Giants defense.

I’m not sure what prompted HC Tom C. to make the change at QB when the team’s 5-4 and still very much in the playoff hunt. Maybe he could see his team going down hill, but I’m just speculating. Whatever the reason, the G-men aren’t like to do very much on offense until Manning gets comfortable under center and with New York’s injury problems on defense they aren’t going to shut Michel Vick out. Give me the Falcons in a game they should cover easily.

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA

Vegas Line

PHI -10.5 TOTAL 38.5

Predicted Outcome

PHI 24 WAS 14

Records

WAS

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS AWAY (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (2-7-0), O/U AWAY (0-4-0)

PHI

SU (8-1-0)

ATS (6-3-0), ATS HOME (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-6-0), O/U HOME (1-3-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

Washington is the Penn State of the NFL. Their defense can keep them in games but their offense is too feeble to win those close games. I’m not sure QB Patrick Ramsey can spark this offense, but it can’t get much worse so I’ll call it an upgrade at the position for now. The Redskins only weapon is RB Clinton Portis and he should do well here against a Philadelphia team that gives up nearly five yards per rush. You have to question if that running game is enough to avoid a blow out, but the line is pretty inflated here and the ‘Skins have a reasonable shot at covering that big number.

This should be a flat spot for the Eagles. The had a big road victory over the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night and now they have to play a team they should handle easily. That’s not a good situation. I wouldn’t expect another huge offensive performance from Philadelphia as the spot is bad and the Redskins are one of the better defensive units. Give me Washington, the points, and the under.

GREEN BAY AT HOUSTON

Vegas Line

GB -3 TOTAL 49

Predicted Outcome

HOU 28 GB 27

Records

GB

SU (5-4-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS AWAY (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-3-0), O/U AWAY (3-1-0)

HOU

SU (4-5-0)

ATS (4-5-0), ATS HOME (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-3-1), O/U HOME (3-1-0)

Recent Meetings

NO MEETINGS

Commentary

A classic bad spot for the Packers. Houston comes off an embarrassing loss and the Packers have won four straight including a big division game against the Vikings. Houston should be poised for a good effort here while Green Bay is feeling a little too good about themselves.

The best play on this game is the Over. Over is 3-1 at Houston home game and 3-1 with the Packers on the road. Moreover, if I had to choose between the Packers offense being flat and their defense being flat, it’s the defense that gets my vote. Against a weak Texans defense, I don’t see Farve having problems moving the football and I don’t see anyone having problems scoring against the Green Bay defense. I think this game ends up in the 50’s and perhaps the 60’s if both teams get hot.

NEW ENGLAD AT KANSAS CITY

Vegas Line

NE -3 TOTAL 55

Predicted Outcome

NE 31 KC 28

Records

NE

SU (8-1-0)

ATS (6-1-2), ATS AWAY (3-1-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-3-1), O/U AWAY (3-1-0)

KC

SU (3-6-0)

ATS (3-6-0), ATS HOME (2-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-4-0), O/U HOME (2-2-0)

Recent Meetings

Commentary

This game has over written all over it. The Chiefs are historically phenomenal home underdogs at Arrowhead going over 80% ATS in that role. If they are going to cover this game, it’s going to be by outscoring the Patriots as the Chiefs defense has done little this season and has given up 41 points in the only other recent game in this series.

New England is off back-to-back victories both SU and ATS after beating Buffalo to a pulp last weekend as a seven-point home favorite, 29-6. The combined 35 points went under the 38 1/2-point closing total, ending consecutive over outings. The Chiefs had over 500 yards on offense against the Saints but stumbled in the red zone and only managed 20 points despite leading the Saints in first downs (28-20), total plays (71-54), rushing yards (200-134), passing yards (297-240) and time of possession (35:44-24:16). The loss broke a streak of three consecutive Chief’s’ overs. Had it not been for the Chiefs four turnovers and the Bills offense laying a huge egg last Sunday night, both of those games would have flown over the total.

If you like this game over, grab it now it’s only going up from here.