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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 24, 2004
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
IND at DET CLE at CIN* BAL at NE NYJ at ARZ* OAK at DEN*
Thu 4:05 TB at CAR JAX at MIN* NO at ATL Mon 9 PM
CHI at DAL SD at KC PHI at NYG BUF at SEA* STL at GB*
*updated TEN at HOU* WAS at PIT* MIA at SF Times ET
  Chicago Rush Catch Pass
QB Craig Krenzel 0 0 160,1
RB Thomas Jones 80,1 20 0
TE Desmond Clark 0 20 0
WR Justin Gage 0 30 0
WR Bobby Wade 0 30 0
WR David Terrell 0 50,1 0
PK Paul Edinger 1 FG 2 XP -
  Dallas Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Henson 0 0 190,1
RB Julius Jones 100,1 20 0
RB Eddie George 20,1 0 0
TE Jason Witten 0 50 0
WR Keyshawn Johnson 0 50 0
WR Quincy Morgan 0 60,1 0
PK Bill Cundiff 1 FG 3 XP -

CHI (4-6) vs DAL (3-7)

Game Prediction: CHI 14, DAL 24

Nothing like playing against the Colts to remind the Bears that maybe they are not quite that good yet. Then again, playing against the Cowboys has allowed most teams to feel a lot better about themselves this season.

This is also an oddity and the only time I am aware that the two starting running backs in the game are brothers. There will be qa couple of empty seats at the Jones' family Thanksgiving but plenty of relatives watching the late game.

Pre-Game Notes - CHI

The Bears looked smart in their rise in the rankings and there was talk about making the playoffs (albeit by only four or five people in the country). After the Colts left town barely winded after scoring 41 points, the reality has set in. Chicago is only mediocre and that does not vary from game to game. It only depends on how many points the opponent scores.

Quarterback: Craig Krenzel has played for four games now and has gone against some terrible defenses - TEN, IND, NYG and MIN. He still only throws for about 160 yards a game and never more than one score. He only had 175 yards last week against the Colts and that was with about 50 minutes of "trash time" in the game.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones did play last week but only gained 59 yards on 18 carries while Anthony Thomas had no carries. In games where the Bears are not going against a top defense or top offense, he has always had around 22 carries a game and scored in most of them. This week there is no doubt that the workload will increase.

Wide Receivers: Facing the worst secondary in the world last week, no wideout had more than two catches or 16 yards other than David Terrell who caught three passes for 76 yards. Before you consider that as a green light to, yet again, pick up Terrell from free agency, consider that 48 yards came on the final play of the first half and was meaningless.

Tight Ends: About as useful as etiquette at a Pistons-Pacers game.

Match Against the Defense: The Cowboys have only an average rushing defense and Thomas Jones should see some moderate success with a good chance of a score. The Bears will likely be using him more heavily this week and that'll get some good production if only be volume.

While the Bears face another terrible secondary, it didn't matter last week at home and it is even less probable to matter on the road. David Terrell gets the favored matchup but what does that really mean? Two passes instead of one?

Pre-Game Notes - DAL

The Cowboys have lost their last three games and it's been just as long since they have looked even remotely competitive. This week will be a major effort from the team in a game that they have an excellent chance to win and need desperately.

Quarterback: Vinny Testaverde injured his shoulder last week and was replaced by Drew Henson who had mixed results. He started out with a sack and a lost fumble but came back by completing all six of his passes in the game and scoring once. While Parcells is being tight-lipped about the starter, chances are very good that Henson gets the start. I am projecting for Henson but be aware that the situation may not be resolved until kickoff since the Cowboys would benefit more by making the Bears prepare for both Vinny and Drew.

Running Backs: Yeah, thanks Eddie - just sit over there and we'll call you when we need you. Julius Jones was a surprise last week when he not only returned to play after missing the last eight games, he had 30 carries for 81 yards against the Ravens. George only had three runs for five yards. With the season slipping away, the time is right for a shift to Henson and Jones over Testaverde and George. The Cowboys were never close enough to the goal line last week to determine if George will be getting short yardage duty, but it appears that Jones is suddenly the man now.

Richie Anderson had a concussion last week and his status is not clear. I will assume he will not play until practice information is available.

Wide Receivers: Quincy Morgan led the wideouts last week with only four catches for 42 yards while Keyshawn Johnson was doubled the entire game and only ended with 44 yards on three catches. If Henson plays, it is still hard to say which receiver he may prefer since his six completions last week went to six different receivers. And shockingly none were Jason Witten.

Tight Ends: Jason Witten only had three catches for 29 yards against the Ravens who were well aware which receiver needed to be covered. Jeff Robinson actually caught the only Dallas touchdown giving him two scores for the year on only two receptions. Oddly enough, he only had two receptions in 2003 - both for touchdowns as well. Now there is economy of motion.

Match Against the Defense: The Bears rush defense is average and comes off a humbling 204 yard effort to Edgerrin James. On the road on a very short week, they should be susceptible to the run and Julius Jones is obviously being used in a heavy role now. Expect that Jones has at least a moderate game with a good chance for a surprisingly big game. The Cowboys would love to run all game long and the Bears secondary is good enough to cause concern with allowing Henson free rein to throw a lot of passes. This should be a 25 carry game for Jones.

Assuming that Henson plays, he faces a secondary that was shredded by Manning but had given up 334 yards and two scores just the previous week to Billy Volek. The Cowboys won't expect Henson to throw much and he'll likely turn in a small fantasy game.

CHI DAL 2004 Averages DAL CHI
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
161
235
Pass yards
246
216
0.5
2.1
Pass TDs
1.3
1.4
1.0
0.4
Interceptions
1.3
1.0
12
9
Rush yards
4
6
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.1
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
91
106
Rush yards
88
128
0.7
0.7
Rush TDs
0.6
0.4
38
41
Receive yards
30
49
0.2
0.2
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
101
160
Receive yards
149
145
0.2
1.5
Receive TD's
0.6
1.2
---
---
TE's
---
---
22
39
Receive yards
68
22
0.1
0.5
Receive TD's
0.7
0.2
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.2
1.7
Field Goals
1.0
1.8
1.5
3.2
Extra Points
2.0
2.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.1
0.9
Fumbles
0.3
1.4
1.0
1.4
Interceptions
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.3
Touchdowns
0.0
0.2
2.1
1.7
Sacks
1.8
3.7
0.2
0.0
Safeties
0.1
0.0
Bears (4-6)
Score Opp.
16-20 DET
21-10 @GB
22-27 @MIN
9-19 PHI
Week 5 bye
10-13 WAS
7-19 @TB
23-13 SF
28-21 @NYG
19-17 @TEN
10-41 IND
Week 12 @DAL
Week 13 MIN
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 HOU
Week 16 @DET
Week 17 GB
Cowboys (3-7)
Score Opp.
17-35 @MIN
19-12 CLE
21-18 @WAS
Week 4 bye
10-26 NYG
20-24 PIT
20-41 @GB
31-21 DET
3-26 @CIN
21-49 PHI
10-30 @BAL
Week 12 CHI
Week 13 @SEA
Week 14 NO
Week 15 @PHI
Week 16 WAS
Week 17 @NYG