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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 24, 2004
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
IND at DET CLE at CIN* BAL at NE NYJ at ARZ* OAK at DEN*
Thu 4:05 TB at CAR JAX at MIN* NO at ATL Mon 9 PM
CHI at DAL SD at KC PHI at NYG BUF at SEA* STL at GB*
*updated TEN at HOU* WAS at PIT* MIA at SF Times ET
  St. Louis Rush Catch Pass
QB Marc Bulger 0 0 300,2
RB Marshall Faulk 50 20 0
RB Steven Jackson 20 10 0
TE B. Manumaleuna 0 20 0
WR Isaac Bruce 0 80,1 0
WR Torry Holt 0 90,1 0
WR Shaun McDonald 0 40 0
PK Jeff Wilkins 1 FG 2 XP -
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,2
RB Ahman Green (Q) 70,1 10 0
RB Tony Fisher 30 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 20,1 0
WR Javon Walker 0 100,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 70 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 20 0
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 3 XP -

STL (5-5) vs GB (6-4)

Game Prediction: STL 17, GB 27

The Rams have lost three of their last four including the only win by Miami this season. The Packers are on a five game winning streak and now are tied with the Vikings for the NFC North lead.

Update: Green has still not practiced and his chest continues to cause him pain. Since he has until Monday to improve and the Packers are optmistic that he will play, I am leaving his numbers alone. The Packers want to run in the game but with both Green and Davenport banged up, it may not be a great option since Tony Fisher is not considered a very good runner if it comes to that. I am leaving the projections alone, but be aware the situation has not been completely resolved and may not be until game time.

Torry Holt has been held out of practice due to a sprained knee but is expected to play. Given that he is still listed as questionable and has not practiced, I am slightly lowering his numbers regardless.

Pre-Game Notes - STL

The only two road wins by the Rams have been against the 49ers and the Seahawks (which they have some odd power over this season). Otherwise, they are a terrible road team and come off a thrashing by the Bills that previously could not beat the dust out of a rug, And of course, there will always be that 17 point loss in Miami.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger has thrown for at least one score in every game this year and only once failed to gain at least 250 passing yards. His downfall, yet again, has been turnovers as evidenced by his two interceptions thrown into the endzone in Buffalo last week. Bulger has great fantasy value and is consistent, but particularly on the road gets rattled too easily.

Running Backs: Marshall Faulk comes off the worst game of his career when he gained only six yards on 13 carries against Buffalo. He has only scored one touchdown on the road this season and the only time he has ran for more than 61 yards was against the 49ers. Steven Jackson has been an effective runner, but he has not had more than 10 carries in a game during the last five weeks in spite of a better per carry average than Faulk.

Wide Receivers: Isaac Bruce has been back on track the last three games, recording either 100 yards or a touchdown every week though never both. Torry Holt also scored against the Bills and for the last six weeks has been big every other week, sandwiching in games with 4 and 32 yards and he is coming off a 90 yard game with a touchdown.

Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald have both been involved recently but neither offer the consistency to make them be a viable fantasy option like Brandon Stokley in Indianapolis.

Tight Ends: One touchdown all season long. No catches in week 11.

Match Against the Defense: The Packer rush defense has been much better during this rebirth the last five weeks and they have not allowed more han 70 yards to any runner with only two rushing scores allowed in in the last five games. Where they have been most hurt is by running backs as receivers but the Rams have not been using Faulk in that capacity much this season.

The Packer secondary has always allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for at least one score if not five (Manning of course). Considering Bulger's track record and the softness of the secondary, Bulger should throw for at least 250 yards with a good chance of breaking 300 as have three opponents already this year.

Holt will have an excellent chance at big yardage and only his second back to back game with a touchdown this season. Bruce is a certain start as well with a great chance for the other score. The Packers have also allowed numerous #3 receivers to score but with St. Louis, that is actually two or three different players.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

The Packers are on a five game winning streak, but the last two wins have been by only three points each. After this game, they travel to Philadelphia and still have road games at Minnesota and Chicago to end the season so they need to take advantage of the remaining home games to remain atop the NFC North and make that week 16 matchup with the Vikings be the game that decides the division.

Quarterback: Like Bulger, Brett Favre has thrown a score in every game this season and has rarely dipped below 250 passing yards and has three 300 yard games to his credit. Like Bulger, he has been throwing interceptions in bunches but unlike Bulger, Favre is pulling out wins at the end of games.

Running Backs: Ahman Green suffered a chest injury last week and the MRI reports may not be made public until sometime Wednesday and a decision on his status may go until Friday or even later since this is a Monday night game this week. Both Green and Davenport are banged up but may be available. Tony Fisher is the only healthy back and would likely start if Green cannot play. The Packers also signed James Jackson on Tuesday who could figure in on Monday night if needed.

I am assuming that Green plays but is somewhat limited from his chest injury. I will update when more is known.

Wide Receivers: Donald Driver comes off his best game of the season when he had 10 catches for 148 yards and one score against the Texans last week. That makes three 100+ yard games for Driver since week five and five scores on the year. Javon Walker was finally held out of the endzone after scoring in the last three games but still finished with nine catches for 88 yards. He's been money since week two with eight touchdowns and four 100 yard games.

Robert Ferguson still plays, but specializes in having only one catch per game and then getting re-injured (which he did last week again).

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks has scored in three games this year but is only there when Favre needs him. With Driver and Walker so hot, Favre rarely needs him.

Match Against the Defense: If Green can be healthy, Monday night against a defense that is not used to very cold grass at night would be big. The Rams have allowed five 100 yard efforts this season including each of the last three games. If Green does not play, Tony Fisher would turn in at least moderate yardage.

The Rams secondary has also been good for giving up at least two scores in six of their last seven games in spite of going against TB, MIA, SEA and SF. The only road game they held the quarterback to less than two scores was when Vick ran for 109 yards.

Look for a nice game from the usual suspects that should net Walker another touchdown with the best matchup. This is also a decent opportunity to dust off Franks since the Rams have allowed four tight ends to score including Campbell's three touchdowns last week.

STL GB 2004 Averages GB STL
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
282
236
Pass yards
283
227
1.5
2.0
Pass TDs
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.6
Interceptions
1.3
0.4
6
14
Rush yards
4
17
0.3
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
102
91
Rush yards
117
115
0.6
0.7
Rush TDs
0.7
0.9
39
40
Receive yards
55
37
0.0
0.7
Receive TD's
0.4
0.2
---
---
WR's
---
---
230
156
Receive yards
201
146
1.4
1.1
Receive TD's
1.4
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
13
43
Receive yards
30
49
0.1
0.2
Receive TD's
0.3
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.2
1.0
Field Goals
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.9
Extra Points
2.9
2.4
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.4
0.9
Fumbles
0.2
1.0
0.5
1.3
Interceptions
0.6
1.1
0.2
0 Touchdowns
0.1
0.2
2.1
0 Sacks
2.0
3.1
0.0
0 Safeties
0.0
0.0
Rams (5-5)
Score Opp.
17-10 ARI
17-34 @ATL
25-28 NO
24-14 @SF
33-27 @SEA
28-21 TB
14-31 @MIA
Week 8 bye
22-40 NE
23-12 SEA
17-37 @BUF
Week 12 @GB
Week 13 SF
Week 14 @CAR
Week 15 @ARI
Week 16 PHI
Week 17 NYJ
Packers (6-4)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
38-10 @DET
41-20 DAL
28-14 @WAS
Week 9 bye
34-31 MIN
16-13 @HOU
Week 12 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI