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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 24, 2004
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
IND at DET CLE at CIN* BAL at NE NYJ at ARZ* OAK at DEN*
Thu 4:05 TB at CAR JAX at MIN* NO at ATL Mon 9 PM
CHI at DAL SD at KC PHI at NYG BUF at SEA* STL at GB*
*updated TEN at HOU* WAS at PIT* MIA at SF Times ET
  Tennessee Rush Catch Pass
QB Steve McNair 0 0 240,2
RB Chris Brown 60 10 0
RB Antowain Smith 20 20 0
TE Erron Kinney 0 20 0
WR Derrick Mason 0 90,1 0
WR Eddie Berlin 0 20 0
WR Drew Bennett 0 70,1 0
PK Gary Anderson 1 FG 2 XP -
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 10 0 210,1
RB Domanick Davis 60 10 0
TE Miller/Bruener 0 20 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 40 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 70,1 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 50 0
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 2 XP -

TEN (4-6) vs HOU (4-6)

Game Prediction: TEN 17, HOU 20

Here is the battle for the AFC South cellar and the Texans are on a three game losing streak while the Titans showed some life in their win over the Jaguars last week. This is a rematch of week six when the Texans beat the Titans 20-10 in Nashville.

Update: Chris Brown has removed his immobilizing boot but has only done some light running. He is currently expected to play though any setback would prevent it. I am adding in Antowain Smith since it appears most likely that Smith will be used to spell Brown at the very least and in the worst case, would take over for Smith.

Pre-Game Notes - TEN

Steve McNair is back and even without Chris Brown were able to take the win in Jacksonville thanks to good running by Antowain Smith and the absence of Byron Leftwich.

Quarterback: Steve McNair only completed 18 of 30 passes for 209 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions last week but the important aspect was that he did play after missing the last two games. And he did not suffer a setback to his chest bruise.

McNair only had 210 yards and one score in their previous matchup which was the least yardage allowed by the Texans all season.

Running Backs: Chris Brown was held out due to his turf toe last week and Antowain Smith turned in a respectable 95 yards on 24 carries with one very important touchdown. Brown is expected to be back this week and the rest was very beneficial to him. While updates could change this if he has any problem in practice this week, he should be in practice and play.

Brown only rushed for 52 yards on 13 carries in their last meeting.

Wide Receivers: Drew Bennett lost his passing buddy of Volek and only had four catches for 64 yards last week while Derrick Mason turned three catches into 56 yards and one score. The wideouts get to face the worst secondary in the entire NFL this week - start 'em if you got 'em.

Tight Ends: It's been almost a month since any tight end has scored and Erron Kinney was the best last week with only two catches for 31 yards - his second best game of the year.

Match Against the Defense: The Houston defense has been terrible against the pass this year and the effort against the Titans back in week six now appears even more amazing. What has happened since week six is that all teams are finding that passing is so easy against the Texans that most teams rarely run much. Expect that Brown has a moderate game here but a really big one would be completely out of line with what has transpired in all the other Houston games this year.

McNair should definitely improve on his previous 210 yard effort last time and there have been five quarterbacks that threw for three or more scores against the Texans this year (though in their defense, they have faced almost every top quarterback in the NFL).

Expect that Mason and Bennett get back into gear this week with an excellent chance both get a touchdown. With Brown likely to return and yet to keep him from a set back, the Titans can and will pass this week.

Pre-Game Notes - HOU

The Texans beat the Titans and then the Jaguars and were 4-3 on the season. Then they were wiped out by both Denver and Indianapolis and lost a squeaker to the Packers last week.

Quarterback: David Carr finally threw a touchdown last week after two scoreless games against the Broncos and Colts. But he only completed 13 of 26 passes for 164 yards against the Packers and has been declining about since the last time he played against Tennessee and threw for 266 yards and one score.

Running Backs: Domanick Davis only gained 65 yards on 21 carries against the Packers last week but had 41 yards on six catches with a touchdown for his third straight game. Davis only gained 25 yards on ten carries in the last effort against the Titans in a game he was not 100% and Jonathan Wells had 73 yards and score in that week six matchup.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson had his third 100 yard game last week when he caught six passes for 107 yards against the Packers. Johnson and Domanick Davis were responsible for 12 of the 13 completions in the entire game and Corey Bradford and Jabar Gaffney combined for seven passes of which they could not catch a single completion.

The passing game has not fared well lately though the good game by Johnson gives some hope. The last meeting with the Titans had Johnson gaining 66 yards while Jabar Gaffney had 85 yards and one touchdown. It was Gaffney's best game of the season.

Tight Ends: Pass on by, brother.

Match Against the Defense: This time around the Texans are at home and they have already beaten the Titans once this season and stuck close to the Packers last week. The Titans started the season out badly against the run and pass but have improved lately, though facing Palmer, Krenzel and Garrard is hardly a resume builder.

Expect that Davis runs for only moderate yardage - he's never had a big game against the Titans and their defense is marginally better lately. If he does anything much, it will likely be thanks to one long run and notable is that the Titans have yet to allow any running back to catch a pass for a score or more than 30 yards this the entire season.

Carr needs a good game because his targets are shrinking almost weekly and Johnson alone is not enough. Look for some moderate yardage in the passing game but not likely more than one score. This should be a fairly defensive game.

TEN HOU 2004 Averages HOU TEN
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
213
264
Pass yards
254
214
1.1
2.4
Pass TDs
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
Interceptions
0.8
1.1
13
10
Rush yards
20
6
0.1
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
110
97
Rush yards
81
101
0.7
0.3
Rush TDs
0.9
0.8
34
32
Receive yards
46
23
0.2
0.2
Receive TD's
0.1
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
153
174
Receive yards
194
159
0.7
1.7
Receive TD's
0.9
0.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
30
58
Receive yards
13
32
0.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.7
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.0
Field Goals
1.5
1.3
1.9
2.9
Extra Points
1.9
2.3
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.9
Fumbles
0.2
0.5
1.1
0.8
Interceptions
1.5
1.3
0.1
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.3
2.3
2.8
Sacks
1.4
2.2
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0
Tennessee (4-6)
Score Opp.
17-7 @MIA
17-31 IND
12-15 JAX
17-38 @SD
48-27 @GB
10-20 HOU
3-20 @MIN
27-20 CIN
Week 9 bye
17-19 CHI
18-15 @JAX
Week 12 @HOU
Week 13 @IND
Week 14 KC
Week 15 @OAK
Week 16 DEN
Week 17 DET
Texans (4-6)
Score Opp.
20-27 SD
16-28 @DET
24-21 @KC
30-17 OAK
28-34 MIN
20-10 @TEN
Week 7 bye
20-6 JAX
13-31 @DEN
14-49 @IND
13-16 GB
Week 12 TEN
Week 13 @NYJ
Week 14 IND
Week 15 @CHI
Week 16 @JAX
Week 17 CLE