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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 13
December 1, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CIN at BAL* BUF at MIA ATL at TB* DEN at SD PIT at JAX
MIN at CHI TEN at IND* SF at STL* KC at OAK* Mon 9 PM
ARZ at DET CAR at NO   GB at PHI* DAL at SEA
NE at CLE HOU at NYJ *updated NYG at WAS Times ET
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 240,2
RB Najeh Davenport 20 10 0
RB Ahman Green 80 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 30,1 0
WR Javon Walker 0 50,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 80 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 30 0
PK Ryan Longwell 3 FG 2 XP -
  Philadelphia Rush Catch Pass
QB Donovan McNabb 20 0 270,4
RB Brian Westbrook 60 60,1 0
RB Dorsey Levens 10 10 0
TE L.J. Smith 0 20 0
WR Terrell Owens 0 120,2 0
WR Freddie Mitchell 0 10 0
WR Todd Pinkston 0 40,1 0
PK David Akers 2 FG 4 XP -

GB (7-4) vs PHI (10-1)

Game Prediction: GB 23, PHI 34

This should be a great game.

Considering only the last six weeks, the Packers have a better record (6-0) than the Eagles have (5-1). But Philly has not won by less than 21 points in the last three games while Green Bay has hung on to two wins by a mere field goal in that time. Now in Philly, the Packers put an NFL best 4-1 road record to the test.

Update: Ahman Green has returned to practice and though he will play while wearing a flak jacket, he is expected to start against the Eagles and claims that it will not have a big effect on him.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

Six games in a row and the Packers keep on rolling after a 1-4 start to the season. They lost Green last week and posted their biggest win of the year. You cannot count this team out unless Favre is gone and as we all know - that's been 200 straight games that the Packers cannot be overlooked.

Quarterback: Brett Favre comes off his 200th consecutive start and celebrated by throwing three touchdowns last week against the Rams. He has 22 touchdowns on the year and six games with multiple scores. He has thrown at least one score in every matchup this season.

Running Backs: Ahman Green missed last week due to a bruised chest but Najeh Davenport had little trouble filling in. With only 19 carries, Davenport gained 178 yards and one touchdown against the Rams. Until Green is cleared to play, I am assuming that Davenport again runs. He's playing just as well as Green anyway though he is not the pass catcher that Ahman is.

Wide Receivers: Javon Walker only had two catches for 15 yards last week but one was a touchdown - his ninth of the year. Walker has not eclipsed 100 yards since week seven but has scores in four of the last five weeks. Donald Driver had six grabs for 85 yards and a score as well last week, which puts him at six touchdowns on the year. The surprising facet of the passing game last week was the play of Robert Ferguson (4-53) who was Favre's primary target early in the game. Ferguson has four catches in each of the last two games after a stretch of six weeks with only one catch per game.

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks is on an odd trend. For the last eight weeks, he scores in every other game. He just scored so nothing this week.

Match Against the Defense: The Eagle rush defense has only allowed three rushing scores on the entire season and only three 100 yard games for running backs. But by the same token, the Eagles have gone through what has proved to be a pretty light schedule and the only team committed to rushing against them was Pittsburgh who had 149 yards from Bettis. Then again, they roll up scores so quickly that opponents need to pass.

Expect that Favre will score at least once and more likely twice has have most decent opponents this season. The Eagles have been softer against tight ends and though it is against his "trend", this week looks favorable for Franks to score.

The wideouts will be challenged by a secondary that has allowed only two touchdowns scored by an opposing wide receiver in the last seven games. The biggest question here is if the Eagles start to lose motivation. That's about the only thing in their way.

Pre-Game Notes - PHI

Philly remains the favorite for "homefield throughout" and has not even been tested in the last three games. They've scored at least 27 points per week while the opponents have never done more than 21 points and in the last two weeks, the Giants and Redskins only had six points each.

Quarterback: Donovan McNabb has 25 passing scores on the season and three rushing touchdowns - one just last week. After scoring four times in both week 11 and 12, he only managed one passing score against the Giants because the Eagles are now running well again with Westbrook.

Running Backs: Since being slowed by a rib injury, Brian Westbrook has returned to form with five scores in the last three games and never less than 40 receiving yards as well. Dorsey Levens still gets seven to ten carries a game but this rushing attack is all about Westbrook once again.

Wide Receivers: Terrell Owens only had two catches for 24 yards but, of course, one touchdown last week. He has 13 scores on the year and only twice has he failed to score in a game. Todd Pinkston has come around in the last three weeks with a score and at least 60 yards in every game. Freddie Mitchell has become invisible again.

Tight Ends: There is no pattern to their usage and in any case - it isn't much. Chad Lewis has a score in week 11 but no throws last Sunday. L.J. Smith typically gets around 20 yards a game but has only one score all season.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers get to meet the touchdown machine Owens and they only have the 2nd worst defense against wideouts in the league. Expect that Owens scores at least once and likely twice. McNabb faces a secondary that has always given up at least one score and on average over two passing scores a week and four games over 300 yards to opposing quarterbacks. It will be there ripe for the picking.

The Packers are also Top 10 in allowing running backs to do well which includes four passing scores to running backs in the last three weeks - to four different running backs. Westbrook will get his.

GB PHI 2004 Averages PHI GB
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
277
222
Pass yards
263
255
2.1
1.0
Pass TDs
2.1
2.0
1.2
1.1
Interceptions
0.5
0.6
4
10
Rush yards
16
13
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
126
107
Rush yards
91
87
0.7
0.5
Rush TDs
0.5
0.6
52
40
Receive yards
53
39
0.4
0.1
Receive TD's
0.3
0.7
---
---
WR's
---
---
197
133
Receive yards
163
177
1.5
0.5
Receive TD's
1.3
1.1
---
---
TE's
---
---
30
45
Receive yards
46
42
0.4
0.5
Receive TD's
0.5
0.2
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.5
1.2
Field Goals
1.9
1.0
3.2
1.4
Extra Points
2.9
2.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.4
0.5
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
Interceptions
1.2
1.2
0.3
0.0
Touchdowns
0.2
0.1
2.2
2.1
Sacks
3.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Packers (7-4)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
38-10 @DET
41-20 DAL
28-14 @WAS
Week 9 bye
34-31 MIN
16-13 @HOU
45-17 STL
Week 13 @PHI
Week 14 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI
Eagles (10-1)
Score Opp.
31-17 NYG
27-16 MIN
30-13 @DET
19-9 @CHI
Week 5 bye
30-8 CAR
34-31 @CLE
15-10 BAL
3-27 @PIT
49-21 @DAL
28-6 WAS
27-6 @NYG
Week 13 GB
Week 14 @WAS
Week 15 DAL
Week 16 @STL
Week 17 CIN