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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 13
December 1, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CIN at BAL* BUF at MIA ATL at TB* DEN at SD PIT at JAX
MIN at CHI TEN at IND* SF at STL* KC at OAK* Mon 9 PM
ARZ at DET CAR at NO   GB at PHI* DAL at SEA
NE at CLE HOU at NYJ *updated NYG at WAS Times ET
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 250,1
RB Derrick Blaylock 90,2 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 80,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 40 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP -
Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins 0 0 280,2
RB A. Zereoue 40 30 0
TE Doug Jolley 0 20 0
WR Doug Gabriel 0 30 0
WR Jerry Porter 0 110,1 0
WR Ronald Curry 0 80,1 0
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP -

KC (3-8) vs OAK (5-6)

Game Prediction: KC 24, OAK 20

The Raiders once ruled this matchup but were swept in 2003 by the Chiefs. Now they have far less talent than Kansas City and yet a much better record.

If the Chiefs lose one more close game, they'll likely implode. The bad mojo can only last so long and at four games, it's time to stop.

Update: Trent Green has not been practicing because of sore ribs but still expects to play. I am not changing his projections but there is a risk that he may prove limited. As expected, Priest Holmes will not play this week and there is a chance that Blaylock will again see his numbers eroded by Larry Johnson.

Pre-Game Notes - KC

The Chiefs have dropped their last four games and are only 3-8 in spite of having the #3 scoring offense in the NFL. That's hard to do unless you manage like the Chiefs to lose the last six times by a touchdown or less. It's not bad planning, it's just very bad karma.

Quarterback: Trent Green had been on a tear with four straight games over 300 yards passing and nine passing scores in that span. And last week when he needed it most, he only managed 208 yards and no score against the Chargers.

Green was also very banged up at the end of the San Diego game and will be questionable this week with back and rib soreness. So far HC Dick Vermeil expects that Green will play.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes has already been declared out for this week and a great year continues to be frozen at mid-way through week nine. Derrick Blaylock scored twice last week but only had eight rushes in the game for 57 yards. Facing the suddenly resurgent Raiders in Oakland makes Holmes absence even more missed. Holmes had monster games both times against the Raiders in 2003.

Wide Receivers: Both Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton had been red hot for the 300 yard games by Green but when the yardage dipped, so did both the wideouts performances. Kennison only managed one catch for nine yards last week while Morton turned in 39 yards on four receptions.

If either does much against the Raiders it will be a surprise. They combined for only 62 and 60 yards in the two meetings of 2003.

Tight Ends: At least someone doesn't hurt when the passing yardage falls. Tony Gonzalez had eight catches for 105 yards last week, his fourth 100 yard game of the year. He never scored against the Raiders in 2003 but had as many as 87 receiving yards in a game.

Match Against the Defense: The Raider defense did just enough to win last week but they still rank in the bottom 10 against every fantasy position. They have allowed every team to either score or gain 100 rushing yards with their running back for the last eight games. Expect at least a moderate game from Blaylock with an almost certain touchdown.

The passing game is much less certain with Green banged up. Oakland always allows opponents to score through the aid and four different times they've given up three or more passing touchdowns. The Raiders have held an opponent to less than 23 points for the last nine weeks.

They are weak against tight ends and Gonzalez should be a lock to score. Expect the passing game to be divided up between Gonzalez, Blaylock and the wideouts rather evenly.

Pre-Game Notes - OAK

The Raiders come off a thrilling "this season is all worth it" win by beating the Broncos in Denver. The passing offense looked never better and the rushing game looks as bad as it ever has.

Quarterback: Kerry Collins has muddled through some bad performances this season but the last two weeks against the Chargers and Raiders, he looks like a Top 10 quarterback. He had two scores and 227 yards with no turnovers in week 11 and then turned in a season best 339 yards and four scores during the blizzard in Denver. He made great use of his wideouts in spite of the presence of Champ Bailey and even if it was only a one week dream - that was one to hang his hat on.

Running Backs: Tyrone Wheatley went down with hamstring injury last week and with him the last shred of a running game for the Raiders. Pending positive reports, I am assuming he is out this week. Amos Zereoue should take the start with some help from Justin Fargas but expect little from this running game and you will not be disappointed.

Wide Receivers: Collins has connected very well with the wideouts lately. Last week saw Jerry Porter gain 135 yards and three touchdowns - a personal best. Ronald Curry had 110 yards and a score as well. Porter only had one touchdown the entire season and waited until he faced one of the best corners in the league to light up the score board. During a snow storm. Go figure.

Curry now has scores in each of the last two games after being blanked for the previous six games.

Doug Gabriel had 51 yards on four catches last week but received a hip pointer. I am waiting on more news to see if he will be playing this week but the assumption is that he will play with some limitation.

Tight Ends: Two big passing games in a row and the tight ends don't matter. Teyo Johnson had a touchdown in week 11 but had no catches in Denver. Doug Jolley only had one for nine yards.

Match Against the Defense: With Wheatley likely out, and really even if he was still there, the Raiders are not a running team regardless of their desire. Do not expect much from Zereoue this week despite playing a terrible rushing defense.

The Chiefs put up a secondary that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to always score at least once and vary between 259 and 472 yards during the last five games. But Collins does not use his tight ends much and the wideouts may be without Gabriel (or at least he will be limited). That means the bulk of the entire offense will be channeled through Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry who should both turn in big games against the one of the lesser defenses in the league.

KC OAK 2004 Averages OAK KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
277
236
Pass yards
253
264
1.4
1.9
Pass TDs
1.3
1.6
0.9
0.5
Interceptions
1.5
0.8
6
12
Rush yards
5
11
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.0
0.4
---
---
RB's
---
---
134
112
Rush yards
71
94
2.0
1.0
Rush TDs
0.7
1.2
44
25
Receive yards
46
45
0.1
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.2
---
---
WR's
---
---
150
172
Receive yards
167
164
0.5
0.8
Receive TD's
0.9
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
83
38
Receive yards
40
55
0.7
0.8
Receive TD's
0.4
0.6
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.1
1.1
Field Goals
1.5
1.2
3.2
3.1
Extra Points
1.7
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.2
0.9
Fumbles
0.5
0.8
0.8
1.5
Interceptions
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.4
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
2.3
1.8
Sacks
1.5
2.1
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Chiefs (3-8)
Score Opp.
24-34 @DEN
17-28 CAR
21-24 HOU
27-24 @BAL
Week 5 bye
16-22 @JAX
56-10 ATL
45-35 IND
31-34 @TB
20-27 @NO
19-27 NE
31-34 SD
Week 13 @OAK
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 DEN
Week 16 OAK
Week 17 @SD
Raiders (5-6)
Score Opp.
21-24 @PIT
13-10 BUF
30-20 TB
17-30 @HOU
14-35 @IND
3-31 DEN
26-31 NO
14-42 @SD
27-24 @CAR
Week 10 bye
17-23 SD
25-24 @DEN
Week 13 KC
Week 14 @ATL
Week 15 TEN
Week 16 @KC
Week 17 JAX