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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 14
December 8, 2004
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
NYG at BAL* DET at GB CIN at NE* SF at ARZ* PHI at WAS
OAK at ATL IND at HOU* Sun 4 PM STL at CAR* Mon 9 PM
CLE at BUF* CHI at JAX* MIA at DEN TB at SD* KC at TEN*
NO at DAL SEA at MIN NYJ at PIT *updated Times ET
Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins 0 0 230,1
RB Justin Fargas 20 0 0
RB A. Zereoue 20 10 0
TE Doug Jolley 0 20 0
WR Doug Gabriel 0 60,1 0
WR Jerry Porter 0 70 0
WR John Stone 0 40 0
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 1 XP -
  Atlanta Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 80,1 0 150,1
RB Warrick Dunn 70,1 20 0
RB T.J. Duckett 30,1 10 0
TE Alge Crumpler 0 60,1 0
WR Dez White 0 20 0
WR Peerless Price 0 20 0
WR Michael Jenkins 0 10 0
PK Jay Feeley 1 FG 4 XP -

OAK (5-7) vs ATL (9-3)

Game Prediction: OAK 13, ATL 34

The Raiders come off a loss to the Chiefs in a game that they lost Ronald Curry. The Falcons come off a shut out by the Buccaneers.

Pre-Game Notes - OAK

The Raiders have no rushing game but were just settling into a good passing scheme when they lost Ronald Curry last week. Now they have little more than Jerry "short-timer" Porter to rely on.

Quarterback: Kerry Collins continued his recent hot streak with 343 yards and three scores against the Chiefs last week. After a slow start, he has nine scores in only the last three games and two straight games over 339 passing yards. The loss of Curry will be definitely felt here since Curry accounted for 251 yards and three scores over the last two weeks as the preferred target for Collins.

Running Backs: There really no longer is any evidence of one in Oakland. Last week there were only seven rushes for 31 yards in the entire game. The only back of note lately is J.R. Redmond because he also catches the ball but even he has had more than 29 yards only once this season. This is a team that has "first round running back" written all over it.

Wide Receivers: The loss of Curry will be particularly painful. He had developed into the best target for Collins and the only consistent scorer the last month. Jerry Porter had a score last week but only 67 yards on three catches. Doug Gabriel will likely move up in the order now but there's just as good of a chance that the Raiders spread the passes among John Stone, Johnnie Morant and Alvis Whitted depending on which one might be healthy this week.

Don't discount what Curry had evolved into being in this offense. His absence will be a hole that likely will not be completely filled.

Tight Ends: They receive precious little work but might get more play with Curry out.

Match Against the Defense: There's practically no rushing game to consider here, so only the passing matchups matter. The Falcons have not allowed an opponent to throw for more than 227 yards this season in Atlanta since week two and the Raiders come in with a lesser receiving corps anyway. Look for one passing score but it's reasonable to assume that Porter gets at least doubled every play and forces Collins to find another outlet he is not as comfortable using.

Pre-Game Notes - ATL

When the Falcons are good, it means that Vick is running wild and the defense is having a big day. When they are bad, it means they are a spectacular failure in the effort. They come off a shut out to the Buccaneers last week. After they were throttled by Kansas City earlier this year, they came back the next week to whip the Broncos in Denver.

Quarterback: Michael Vick ran for 81 yards last week, only 34 yards less than what he passed for in the entire game. Vick has yet to throw for more than 252 yards this season and only three times has exceeded 200 yards. This is a running-style of quarterback not unlike the best High School programs in the country.

Running Backs: The running game has been dominated by Vick to the detriment of the running backs. Warrick Dunn has not scored since week eight and has not rushed for more than 76 yards since week two. T.J. Duckett has scored as recently as week 10, but he has not had more than 13 carries in any game this season. The running game works well enough in combination, but that's giving the best performances to the quarterback and splitting what is left over between Duckett and Dunn.

Wide Receivers: Where? Peerless Price caps out around 30 yards a week while Dez White goes every other week with either 35 yards or 10 yards. Rookie Michael Jenkins has the easiest job in the world but he actually did have one catch last week after having none in the three previous games. This is the saddest group of ignored wideouts in the history of the NFL. It has to be.

Tight Ends: Alge Crumpler had been the mainstay in the passing game (actually make that the only receiver). Tampa Bay focused on stopping him and viola - the Falcons passing game completely disappears. Crumpler only had one catch for five yards last week.

Match Against the Defense: The opportunity here is that Oakland features a defense that is top 10 worst at every fantasy position. But the Falcons only use tight end, quarterback and a mix of Dunn and Duckett. There certainly could be a wideout score this week but Vick has only thrown three this entire season.

Expect a big game from Vick with enough left over for both Dunn and Duckett to have moderate games. Fortunately the Raiders have been terrible against tight ends and allowed the position to catch nine scores already this season. There's your passing score.

OAK ATL 2004 Averages ATL OAK
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
260
243
Pass yards
166
245
1.4
1.2
Pass TDs
0.9
2.0
1.3
1.2
Interceptions
0.9
0.5
4
3
Rush yards
66
11
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.2
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
67
94
Rush yards
93
115
0.7
1.2
Rush TDs
0.9
1.0
50
44
Receive yards
32
33
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.2
0.4
---
---
WR's
---
---
173
160
Receive yards
76
172
1.1
0.8
Receive TD's
0.3
0.8
---
---
TE's
---
---
38
39
Receive yards
61
39
0.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.4
0.8
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.5
1.1
Field Goals
1.0
1.2
1.8
2.3
Extra Points
2.3
3.2
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.6
1.0
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.8
Interceptions
1.1
1.3
0.1
0.0
Touchdowns
0.3
0.3
1.4
3.2
Sacks
2.9
1.8
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Raiders (5-7)
Score Opp.
21-24 @PIT
13-10 BUF
30-20 TB
17-30 @HOU
14-35 @IND
3-31 DEN
26-31 NO
14-42 @SD
27-24 @CAR
Week 10 bye
17-23 SD
25-24 @DEN
27-34 KC
Week 14 @ATL
Week 15 TEN
Week 16 @KC
Week 17 JAX
Falcons (9-3)
Score Opp.
21-19 @SF
34-17 STL
6-3 ARI
27-10 @CAR
10-17 DET
21-20 SD
10-56 @KC
41-28 @DEN
Week 9 bye
24-14 TB
14-10 @NYG
24-21 NO
0-27 @TB
Week 14 OAK
Week 15 CAR
Week 16 @NO
Week 17 @SEA