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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Inside The Points - Week 14
Fritz Schlottman
December 10, 2004

CINCINNATI AT NEW ENGLAND

Vegas Line

NE -11 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

NE 28 CIN 20

Records

CIN

SU (6-6-0)

ATS (5-6-1), ATS AWAY (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U AWAY (5-1-0)

NE

SU (11-1-0)

ATS (9-1-2), ATS HOME (4-0-2)

OVER/UNDER (6-5-1), O/U HOME (2-3-1)

Recent Meetings

        CIN     NE  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
8/21/2004 NE 3 CIN 31 385 155 230 254 77 177
9/9/2001 NE 17 CIN 23 353 157 196 292 68 224

Commentary

This is just the second time in two seasons that New England has been a double-digit home favorites, and when you consider that the Patriots are 12-0-2 ATS as a home favorite and have won 17 straight at home (in the regular season and the post season) and 21-3 in the history of Gillette Stadium you’d think the public would have bid up the Patriots to double-digits more often than twice. Cincinnati has won 4 of their last five games so it seems odd that the lines-maker has picked this game to make the Patriots an 11 point favorite. Then again, the Patriots have been killing the books week after week so it’s about time the odds-makers adjusted their lines.

The field at Gillette may have a lot to do with the outcome of this game. The contest between the Ravens and the Patriots played in the raid destroyed the surface. Patriots’ management has replaced 3” of soil and laid new turf for this game…and more rain is in the forecast (Friday 70% chance of rain and more on Saturday).

If this game comes down to running the ball, the Patriots have a huge edge if RB Corey Dillon can play. New England is averaging 140 rushing yards at home while the Bengals are giving up 160. On the other hand, the Bengals rush for 94 yards on the road while the Patriots give up just 101 at home.

I hate laying more than seven against a hot team and laying 11 makes me break out in a cold sweat. I think the Patriots will win this game by two touchdowns if conditions prevent the Bengals from throwing the ball. However, I also think the game goes under the total if the field conditions are bad. ‘Very hard to make both of those events happen unless the Bengals score less than 14 points, and that has happened twice this season. If I had to choose between the two, I’d say the game goes over the total. New England has scored 40, 29, 27, 24, and 42 points in their last five games and unless the field is a quagmire, the Patriots will score at least 27 this week.

CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO

Vegas Line

BUF -11.5 TOTAL 38

Predicted Outcome

BUF 31 CLE 14

Records

CLE

SU (3-9-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (0-5-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U AWAY (3-2-0)

BUF

SU (6-6-0)

ATS (8-4-0), ATS HOME (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U HOME (5-1-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

The Bills 11 and a half point favorites? Well, these are two teams headed in opposite directions as the Browns have lost their last six games and Buffalo is working to extend their current three game winning streak. Laying 11 and a half points with a 6-6 football team seems like insanity, until you look closer at where these two teams are in Week 14.

Injuries have just killed Cleveland. The Browns have just three starters that started on offense in their opening game of 2004…and the defense isn’t much healthier. The Browns defense has given up 100 points in their last two games while the offense scored just 15 points last week against New England. On the road, the Browns defense is giving up 154 yards per game rushing (4.7 yards per carry average) while the Bills at home are gaining 129 yards per game on the ground. That would lead me to believe that Buffalo should be able to rush the ball and control the clock.

On the other hand, the Bills offense has come alive the last three games. Buffalo has scored 37, 38, and 42 points during their current three-game winning streak while the Bills defense had given up just 17 points to Seattle and nine points to Seattle before a poor effort last week against the Dolphins. The Bills at home are giving up just 91 yards per game on the ground while Cleveland is rushing for just over 100 yards per contest on the road.

Cleveland once again will start Luke McCown at quarterback. McCown threw for 277 yards (20-34), two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Patriots which was enough to earn another start this week.

I think the total on the game is way to low. Buffalo may cover 38 by themselves and as long as the Browns chip in another 14, this game should sail into the 40’s. I think the Bills cover this big number and then some in what should be an entertaining game.

N.Y. GIANTS AT BALTIMORE

Vegas Line

BAL -10 TOTAL 33

Predicted Outcome

BAL 20 NYG 7

Records

NYG

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (5-7-0), ATS AWAY (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-8-0), O/U AWAY (2-4-0)

BAL

SU (7-5-0)

ATS (8-4-0), ATS HOME (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U HOME (5-1-0)

Recent Meetings

        NYG     BAL  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
9/2/2004 BAL 27 NYG 17 571 345 226 613 353 260

Commentary

The Giants played just about as poorly as a team could play last week in a 31-7 loss to Washington. Why New York changed quarterback when they were solidly in the playoffs in beyond me… and now they play a pissed-off Ravens defense. Remember, New York was 5-2 after their first seven games and challenging Philadelphia for the NFC East divisional championship and now the G-men have fallen to 5-7 after losing five straight.

Hand and hand with the current slump is that lack of offense that comes with it. The New York media are openly questioning the conservative play calling that had RB Tiki Barber running into the line against eight and nine Redskins defenders last week. The media is calling for the resignation or firing of OC John Hufnagel to be replaced by QB Coach Kevin Gilbride under the assumption that the Gilbride would call more passing plays. USA Today reports that Barber, Shockey, Toomer, among others have openly criticized the lack of down-field passing.

Are the Giants going to open it up against the Ravens defense? Yea, right. Three runs between the tackles and a punt is far more likely. The Sports Gods have given this game an ultra-low total of 33 so you know what they’re thinking. Can Baltimore cover a 10 point spread while keeping the game under 33 points? I think the can as New York has been vulnerable to opposing rushing games the last few weeks. Give me the Ravens and the under.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY

Vegas Line

GB -9.5 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

GB 31 DET 17

Records

DET

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (6-6-0), ATS AWAY (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U AWAY (3-3-0)

GB

SU (7-5-0)

ATS (5-7-0), ATS HOME (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (8-4-0), O/U HOME (4-2-0)

Recent Meetings

        DET     GB  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
10/17/2004 GB 38 DET 10 125 33 92 434 157 277
11/27/2003 GB 14 DET 22 266 100 166 320 52 268
9/14/2003 DET 6 GB 31 293 56 237 332 200 132
11/10/2002 DET 14 GB 40 362 126 236 503 150 353
9/22/2002 GB 37 DET 31 271 95 176 442 95 347
11/22/2001 GB 29 DET 27 360 167 193 339 104 235
9/9/2001 DET 6 GB 28 288 56 232 424 179 245

Commentary

Green Bay crashed and burned last week in Philadelphia. That was one of those Packer road games where nothing goes right. ‘Just their good luck, here come the Lions who never win in Wisconsin, and that’s just what the doctor ordered. Green Bay is 10-1-1 at home against Detroit and the average score is 31-15 during that period.

Talent wise, this game shouldn’t be close. Detroit is out of weapons on offense including their only scoring threat…kick returner Kevin Drummond. The Packers passing game matches up exceptionally well against the Lions secondary as evidenced by the first game this year when Green Bay beat Detroit 38-10 at Ford Field, rolled up a 28-5 edge in first downs, and 434-125 advantage in yardage.

The Lions only chance is to run the ball. Detroit had over 190 yards rushing against Arizona last week and we’ve seen the Packers defense give up big yardage on the ground all season long. If Detroit can run, they can have some balance on offense, keep this game close and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field. But if they can’t control the clock, the Packers will get ahead early and bury Detroit.

I’m not going to step in front of history here without a good reason. Odds are the Packers cover this spread easily. Give me Green Bay and I’ll lay the points.

SEATTLE AT MINNESOTA

Vegas Line

MIN -6.5 TOTAL 51.5

Predicted Outcome

MIN 34 SEA 27

Records

SEA

SU (6-6-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (8-4-0), O/U AWAY (3-3-0)

MIN

SU (7-5-0)

ATS (7-5-0), ATS HOME (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U HOME (2-4-0)

Recent Meetings

        SEA     MIN  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/7/2003 SEA 7 MIN 34 258 56 202 465 193 272
9/29/2002 MIN 23 SEA 48 381 159 222 443 192 251

Commentary

Talk about two really inconsistent teams. Seattle gave up two touchdowns in a blink of an eye to lose to a struggling Cowboys team straight-up in the last two minutes and the Vikings got beaten by the Bears who were starting their fourth quarterback of the season. And I want to bet on either of these teams? I don’t think so.

The Vikings lost to the Bears was one of those games that make you say huh? I know Minnesota’s defense isn’t playing very well, but I sure didn’t expect them to give up three passing touchdowns to Chad Hutchinson who was surfing in California two months ago, while getting little or nothing from their own passing game.

Seattle, who once looked like an NFC championship contender, now finds themselves in a dog-fight just to make the playoffs. The Seahawks incompetence over the last month, and especially the play of their defense, has seen this team go from a number one ranking on defense in Week 3 to number 20 this week. This team just can’t hang on to a lead as once again that Ray Rhodes defense played prevent the win and Dallas scored two late touchdowns to get the victory.

Seattle has to make this game a shoot-out if they hope to keep it close, because God knows their defense isn’t going to stop anyone. 51.5 is a big number considering how these two offenses are playing, but this game has a real shot at going over the total with two incompetent defenses. Give me the Vikings and over.

OAKLAND AT ATLANTA

Vegas Line

OAK -7.5 TOTAL 45.5

Predicted Outcome

ATL 24 OAK 17

Records

OAK

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (8-4-0), O/U AWAY (5-1-0)

ATL

SU (9-3-0)

ATS (5-7-0), ATS HOME (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-9-0), O/U HOME (1-5-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

The Falcons, despite the 9-3 record, have been a terrible ATS team this season. Getting blown off the field and posting a doughnut on the scoreboard on the road at Tampa Bay last week was not a good thing and it’s obvious now we all know that this isn’t a team that can go on the road and come back if they get behind. Now the Falcons go back home to face a Raiders team that’s scoring points and getting 7.5 points. My initial thought was take Oakland and the points.

Looking at the fundamentals, what the Falcons do best is to run the ball and stop the run. Atlanta is the number one rushing team in the NFL and they are among the best in the league at stopping the run. Dunn, Duckett and Vick are a three-headed rushing monster that’s very hard to defend, especially on the carpet. What is Oakland poor at? Stopping the run and running the football. The Raiders can’t move the football on the ground and they can’t stop anyone from running unless they’re playing in a snow storm. QB Kerry Collins takes a lot of hits because defensive linemen don’t have to honor the Raiders rushing game and that leads to turnovers.

I think this game goes to a touchdown. At that number, I’ll be at the window to get a Falcons’ ticket.

CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE

Vegas Line

JAX -7.5 TOTAL 34

Predicted Outcome

JAX 20 CHI 14

Records

CHI

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (6-6-0), ATS AWAY (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-7-0), O/U AWAY (3-3-0)

JAX

SU (6-6-0)

ATS (7-5-0), ATS HOME (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-9-0), O/U HOME (1-5-0)

Recent Meetings

        CHI     JAX  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
1/6/2002 JAC 13 CHI 33 322 169 153 237 91 146

Commentary

Two teams that rely on defense and special teams to win ball games which would lead you to believe that this will be a low-scoring game. That makes sense…but what doesn’t make sense is that the Jaguars opened as 6.5 point favorites and they’ve been bid up to a 7.5 point favorites, and the money’s still coming in on the Jaguars.

The Bears offense is a big question mark, but I think they’re better off with Chad Hutchinson at quarterback. If you saw Chicago on Thanksgiving, you know how bad this offense can be. On the other hand, if Hutchinson can be just average and avoid making the big mistake Chicago has enough defense to stay in games. Looking at the Bears defense and special teams you can see the production. Chicago has 31 sacks, 15 interceptions, 12 fumble recovers, a safety, a blocked kick and they’re starting to get healthy with Urlacher and Tillman back in the line-up.

Jacksonville isn’t a great favorite. In the three times the Jaguars have been favorites, they have two straight-up losses and the third game went to overtime. Further, the Jaguars have beaten anyone by more than six points all season.

The line is just too big here and I think there’s some value with the Bears. Give me Chicago to cover in a low-scoring game.

NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS

Vegas Line

DAL -7 TOTAL 48

Predicted Outcome

DAL 27 NO 20

Records

NO

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (3-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U AWAY (4-1-0)

DAL

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (5-7-0), ATS HOME (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (8-4-0), O/U HOME (3-3-0)

Recent Meetings

        NO     DAL  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/28/2003 DAL 7 NO 13 291 58 233 352 85 267

Commentary

Ok, the Saints have the worst defense in the NFL and their head coach is a lame duck. What incentive does this team have to show up here? Probably not much. On the other hand, Dallas is playing well and has an outside shot at a playoff spot, so Dallas probably has a significant emotional edge going into this game.

But is that emotional edge worth at least eight points? Fundamentally, the Saints have the much more talented team and if they showed up to play, New Orleans offense could blow the Cowboys out of the stadium. Dallas’ secondary has gotten torched when matched against superior talent at the wide receiver position and that could happen again this week, if the Saints get their act together.

I think I write each and every week how much I hate picking Saints’ games. Yep, I rode them last week just because I have to pick one side for each and every game, and I got burned once again, but if I though of ever getting near a window at a sports book to lay good money on that bunch I’ll be checking myself in for rehab. I’m not laying a touchdown with Dallas and I’m sure not going to take New Orleans. Give me under the 48 total.

INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON

Vegas Line

IND -11 TOTAL 57

Predicted Outcome

IND 55 HOU 24

Records

IND

SU (9-3-0)

ATS (8-3-1), ATS AWAY (4-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (9-3-0), O/U AWAY (4-2-0)

HOU

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (6-6-0), ATS HOME (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-5-1), O/U HOME (4-2-0)

Recent Meetings

        IND     HOU  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
11/14/2004 HOU 14 IND 49 398 86 312 302 132 170
12/28/2003 IND 20 HOU 17 418 207 211 204 99 105
10/26/2003 HOU 21 IND 30 391 122 269 270 131 139
12/1/2002 HOU 3 IND 19 278 88 190 165 65 100
9/22/2002 IND 23 HOU 3 339 88 251 204 126 78

Commentary

Houston never beats Indianapolis, that’s a given. But can the Texans keep this game close when every other team that gets in the Colts’ path gets steam-rolled by three touchdowns? That is the question.

So the Colts can’t play defense, does that really matter? The Colts get enough turnovers from their defense that the Colts offense buries the opposition. Once teams get behind and the have to throw the football every play, Indy turns up the pass rush and here comes the turnovers and fourth downs.

Houston’s defense isn’t going to stop them. The Texans are poor against the pass to begin with. Houston’s only chance is to run the ball and keep Indy’s offense off the field. Unfortunately, the Texans running game has been MIA this season.

This should be another ugly game and Marino’s passing touchdown record may fall here. It’s the Colts in a blow out.

N.Y. JETS AT PITTSBURGH

Vegas Line

PIT -6 TOTAL 35.5

Predicted Outcome

PIT 13 NYJ 10

Records

NYJ

SU (9-3-0)

ATS (7-4-1), ATS AWAY (4-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (5-7-0), O/U AWAY (2-4-0)

PIT

SU (11-1-0)

ATS (7-4-1), ATS HOME (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U HOME (4-2-0)

Recent Meetings

        NYJ     PIT  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
12/14/2003 PIT 0 NYJ 6 319 175 144 231 94 137
12/9/2001 NYJ 7 PIT 18 220 61 159 345 134 211

Commentary

This should be an ugly, low-scoring game. The totals on the two previous games in this series are six and 25. I don’t expect many more points in this game either.

Both teams want to run the ball and both teams have dominating defenses. One of the little known stories of the season is the Jets defense. Jets’ opponents have scored just 17 points combined in the last three games as New York held the Browns to seven points, the Cardinals to a field goal, and the Texans to a touchdown last week. The Steelers play defense and rely on Rothlisburger to do just enough to get the win. The iron curtain defense has held opponents to 14 points or less in five of their last six games.

This should be a rugby match as both teams battle over the line of scrimmage. I think this is another low-scoring game that’s settled by a field goal. Give me NY and the under.

MIAMI AT DENVER

Vegas Line

DEN -11.5 TOTAL 38.5

Predicted Outcome

DEN 24 MIA 17

Records

MIA

SU (2-10-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-4-1), O/U AWAY (4-1-1)

DEN

SU (7-5-0)

ATS (4-5-3), ATS HOME (2-3-1)

OVER/UNDER (3-7-2), O/U HOME (3-1-2)

Recent Meetings

        MIA     DEN  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
10/13/2002 MIA 24 DEN 22 259 67 192 410 111 299
12/2/2001 DEN 10 MIA 21 218 42 176 273 147 126

Commentary

Denver has really gone into the dumps the last two weeks. First they blow a lead at home to Oakland in a snow storm and last week Plummer throws four interceptions and the ponies lose by a field goal at San Diego. This team can move the ball, but they just destroy themselves with mistakes.

So, what state of mind are the Broncos in now that their divisional championship hopes are toast and they’re battling for a wild card? I think they have a hangover in this game.

Miami has played a lot of high-scoring games lately. In their last eight games, they’ve gone over the total: 74 points with Buffalo, 41 with San Francisco and Seattle, 47 against Arizona, 55 against the Jets, and 45 with Saint Louis. During that period, the highest total on a Dolphin game was 38. Denver can score and the Dolphins defense has worn down as the season has gone along. I expect another high-scoring game here with the total going over 38.

ST. LOUIS AT CAROLINA

Vegas Line

CAR -7 TOTAL 44

Predicted Outcome

CAR 24 STL 14

Records

STL

SU (6-6-0)

ATS (3-8-1), ATS AWAY (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (8-4-0), O/U AWAY (5-1-0)

CAR

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (7-5-0), ATS HOME (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (5-6-1), O/U HOME (2-4-0)

Recent Meetings

        STL     CAR  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
1/10/2004 CAR 29 STL 23 380 64 316 485 216 269
12/23/2001 STL 38 CAR 32 412 215 197 402 97 305
11/11/2001 CAR 14 STL 48 493 337 156 146 31 115

Commentary

St. Louis is getting a touchdown against Carolina? Certainly the Sports Gods have taken notice that the Panthers have gotten hot while the Rams offense has sputtered.

Marc Bulger will not play and Chris Chandler will be the Rams starting quarterback. Big deal, St. Louis wasn’t scoring before Bulger got hurt. The Rams scored 16 points last week, 17 against Buffalo, 17 points at Green Bay, and 14 points at Miami. What happened to the greatest show on turf? Clearly, the Rams have struggled on the road. They can rack up the yardage, but they can’t put it in the end zone.

I just can’t imagine the Panthers as a playoff team. Carolina was dead and buried at the mid-way mark of the season. They had lost their first and second string quarterback, the defense wasn’t playing well, and the Panthers passing game was inconsistent. Now in December, the Rams and the Seahawks have come back to the pack and a West divisional championship for Arizona isn’t out of the question. WR Mohammad is on fire the last month as Carolina has scored 24 points against the Raiders, 37 at San Francisco, 35 at home against Arizona, 21 against Tampa Bay, and 32 at New Orleans. The Rams don’t stop anyone on the road this season so the Panthers should have another good offensive day.

I never thought I’d write this, but I don’t think the Rams offense can keep up with the Panthers. I’ll lay the touchdown and play Carolina this week.

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA

Vegas Line

ARI -7 TOTAL 37

Predicted Outcome

ARI 21 SF 10

Records

SF

SU (1-11-0)

ATS (5-7-0), ATS AWAY (3-3-0)

OVER/UNDER (6-6-0), O/U AWAY (2-4-0)

ARI

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (6-6-0), ATS HOME (3-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U HOME (2-3-0)

Recent Meetings

        SF     ARI  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
10/10/2004 ARI 28 SF 31 448 57 391 320 103 217
12/7/2003 ARI 14 SF 50 496 232 264 217 66 151
10/26/2003 SF 13 ARI 16 255 106 149 314 221 93
12/21/2002 SF 17 ARI 14 358 106 252 184 108 76
10/27/2002 ARI 28 SF 38 357 105 252 420 151 269

Commentary

The Cardinals are seven point favorites? This is the same team that got beaten badly at Detroit last week without scoring a touchdown and now they are laying a touchdown against the 49ers. My initial though was way too many points.

San Francisco is so beaten up. Ken Dorsey returns at quarterback as Tim Rattay will miss the next two weeks with a torn foot muscle and Kevin Barlow is expected to miss as well. The 49ers defense has been beaten up all season. It seems like every week the bus stops and new defensive backs step off and right on to the football field. Pretty soon SF is going to be drafting fans from the stands to suit up and report to the sidelines. They just can’t wait to get out of this season.

Arizona has blown their chance at the playoffs. That genius Denny Green yanked his starting quarterback when the Cards were one game below .500 and now the Cardinals have lost all three games his back-up quarterbacks have started. Nice going Denny. Now Green goes back to McCown and how that young man will respond is anyone’s guess.

I just can’t back the 49ers. They are 1-11 straight up and haven’t even played a difficult schedule. Give me the Cardinals in a rebound game.

TAMPA BAY AT SAN DIEGO

Vegas Line

SD -5.5 TOTAL 43

Predicted Outcome

SD 20 TB 17

Records

TB

SU (5-7-0)

ATS (5-5-2), ATS AWAY (1-4-1)

OVER/UNDER (3-9-0), O/U AWAY (2-4-0)

SD

SU (9-3-0)

ATS (9-2-1), ATS HOME (4-1-1)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U HOME (7-1-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

The Chargers have been point-spread covering monsters. It’s very hard to pick against a team that’s 9-2-1 ATS, but this is a terrible spot for San Diego. They are off their biggest win in a decade, a three point victory over the hated Broncos at home, the last of three straight divisional games, and now a charging Buc’s team goes into San Diego.

Fortunately, the Buc’s aren’t a good road team. Tampa Bay is just 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season while San Diego is 4-1-1 ATS at home. The Buc’s got blasted by Oakland in their only trip out west this season and Tampa Bay historically doesn’t travel out west well.

I think Tampa Bay has enough defense to keep this game close. I think San Diego wins the game, but by just a field goal. Give me Tampa in a low-scoring game.

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON

Vegas Line

PHI -9 TOTAL 38

Predicted Outcome

PHI 21 WAS 14

Records

PHI

SU (11-1-0)

ATS (9-3-0), ATS AWAY (4-2-0)

OVER/UNDER (4-8-0), O/U AWAY (2-4-0)

WAS

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS HOME (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (3-9-0), O/U HOME (3-3-0)

Recent Meetings

        PHI     WAS  
Date Away Home TOTAL RUSH PASS TOTAL RUSH PASS
11/21/2004 WAS 6 PHI 28 334 126 208 213 51 162
12/27/2003 PHI 31 WAS 7 332 83 249 260 79 181
10/5/2003 WAS 25 PHI 27 261 121 140 307 49 258
12/15/2002 WAS 21 PHI 34 320 110 210 292 86 206
9/16/2002 PHI 37 WAS 7 451 168 283 179 89 90
12/16/2001 PHI 20 WAS 6 287 63 224 362 155 207
11/25/2001 WAS 13 PHI 3 186 94 92 240 155 85

Commentary

Philadelphia really doesn’t have anything to play for. They’ve clinched their division and likely home field advantage through the playoffs with the Falcons playing inconsistently, the Packers and the Vikings slugging it out, and the Rams and Seahawks gasping for air. The Eagles may take a few weeks off and get players healthy or may begin to overlook teams like the Redskins who they should beat handily if Philadelphia had something on the line.

Washington got a big win against the Giants last week. Patrick Ramsey, while he hasn’t been great, he has been a step-up from Mark Brunell. Clinton Portis, while taking the middle of the season off, was a fantasy stud once again last week and finally contributed a little for patient fantasy owners who’ve kept him on through the lean weeks. To top it off, the Redskins have the number two defense and no team has run the ball well against them.

I don’t think the Eagles will be focused on this game and I think that shows up on offense. This should be a low-scoring game where Washington runs the ball to keep McNabb and Owens off the field. The Eagles will win the game, but I don’t think they care enough to cover ten points by kickoff.

KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE

Vegas Line

NO LINE

Predicted Outcome

NO PREDICTION

Records

KC

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS AWAY (2-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U AWAY (4-2-0)

TEN

SU (4-8-0)

ATS (4-8-0), ATS HOME (1-4-0)

OVER/UNDER (7-5-0), O/U HOME (3-2-0)

Recent Meetings

NO RECENT MEETINGS

Commentary

McNair, Green, and Holmes may be out for this game. ‘Vegas is waiting to post a line until later in the week.