fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 15
December 15, 2004
Season Ticket
Saturday Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
PIT at NYG 1 * BUF at CIN * SD at CLE* STL at ARZ BAL at IND *
WAS at SF 5 * HOU at CHI SEA at NYJ DEN at KC * Mon 9 PM
CAR at ATL 8:30 JAX at GB * DAL at PHI * NO at TB NE at MIA*
Times ET MIN at DET TEN at OAK * *updated Times ET
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 220,1
RB Fred Taylor 100,1 20 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 80,1 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 40 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 40 0
PK Josh Scobee 0 FG 2 XP -
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 220,2
RB Ahman Green 70 20 0
RB Tony Fisher 10 10 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 30,1 0
WR Javon Walker 0 70,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 60 0
WR Antonio Chatman 0 20 0
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 2 XP -

JAX (7-6) vs GB (8-5)

Game Prediction: JAX 14, GB 20

This is a very important game. The Jaguars cannot afford any losses or their playoff hopes will dim if not die. The Packers do have a one game lead in the NFC North but have two road games left to play. Both these teams are struggling to post points lately so the winner will likely be a last minute play in a very tight game.

Favre has turned in two bad games in a row and the Jaguars have a much better defense than Green Bay. Should be just enough for the upset.

Update: Okay, okay. If there is one thing that will attract email it is predicting that anyone can beat the Packers in Green Bay in freezing weather. Now it is official - the game is predicted to be played in around 13 degree weather with 18 mph winds with a chance of snow showers. Those Florida boys will be out of their element. I am adjusting the game score and some J'ville projections. Favre is 38-1 at home when the temperature is below 34 degrees.

Jimmy Smith will play this week but is still feeling the effects of a sore ankle.

Pre-Game Notes - JAX

Jacksonville had little problem taking down the Bears last week but they also lost in Minnesota the previous week.

Quarterback: Since Byron Leftwich returned in week 12, he's scored in all three games but only managed two scores last week against Chicago. He's thrown for about 250 yards in all three games with only one interception. This week may be the most advantageous situation he will face for posting good numbers for the rest of the season.

Running Backs: The plan was to rely more on Fred Taylor down the stretch but he's struggled some against both the PIT and CHI defenses lately, gaining only around 75 yards a game. Against softer defenses - like Green Bay - he's been topping the 100 yard mark for three straight games starting in week ten. What he never does is score - he has only one rushing touchdown in week three and one receiving touchdown in week six.

Wide Receivers: Jimmy Smith comes off an 85 yard, six catch game against the Bears with one touchdown but that's been his best game in the last month and his only score. Even against the Vikings, Smith only managed 68 yards on four catches. Leftwich is spreading the ball around well enough to water down what individual receivers can do.

Last week added yet another receiver to the equation. The rookie Reggie Williams had four catches and his first NFL touchdown. Troy Edwards had a nice game against the Steelers in week 13 but went back to only 30 yards last week.

Tight Ends: Too rare to consider.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers defense is Top 5 bad against most fantasy positions and Taylor against a team that has allowed several monster games this year. But Taylor on the road has not been really strong and the Packers are even worse against the pass. Expect a moderate game from Taylor but he'll only get big if the Jaguars get a lead and do not have to throw. As visitors in Green Bay, that's less likely.

Leftwich should be able to connect on at least a couple scores here with an excellent chance at big yardage against a team that has allowed five teams to pass for more than 300 yards and two of the last three weeks have allowed over 448 yards to opponents. Expect Leftwich to shine this week.

The matchups favor the split end the most but the Jaguars are splitting the position with Troy Edwards and Reggie Williams with Ernest Willford even playing the slot on that side for some plays. As usual, it's hard to forecast which of them are most likely to score a touchdown but there is reason to get Reggie Williams into the groove to prepare for the rest of his career.

Pre-Game Notes - GB

The Packers barely squeaked past the Lions last week in a game they should have won big. Three of their last four wins have been by one field goal - MIN, @HOU and DET. That's one play per game away from being 5-8.

Quarterback: Brett Favre was red hot for most of the year but the last two games he's only managed one touchdown and not exceeded 188 passing yards. While the game in Philadelphia was not a shock to give him problems, the home tilt against the Lions only continued his struggles against a much lesser team. This is Favre's final home game this season and it comes against an opponent tougher than Detroit.

Running Backs: Ahman Green gained 76 yards on 23 carries last week, a step down from the 81 yards on 21 carries he previously had against Detroit. He's wearing a flak jacket and claims his ribs are not an issue now but he's not had a big game since week 10. He hasn't scored since week 8.

Wide Receivers: These last two games have been hard hits on the wideouts. Javon Walker only had 26 yards on three catches last week after scoring on seven catches for 72 yards the previous week. Donald Driver did score against the Lions and had 87 yards but only turned in 33 yards against the Eagles. Antonio Chatman and Robert Ferguson were non-factors last against the Lions and neither has scored this season since week two.

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks actually has been the lone consistent receiver lately but that only means around 30 yards a game for the last month. He has scored twice in that time.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars have given up some big games to quarterbacks this season, but they've faced some of the best - Manning twice is enough to send any defense's rankings plummeting. But this is an above average secondary that has allowed the Jaguars to stay in most games this year.

The Jacksonville rushing defense has been fairly stellar - the best any running back has done all season was 103 yards in San Diego in a surprise game from Jesse Chatman. Almost all runners top out around 75 or 80 yards and only one has scored in the last eight games. Don't expect too much from Green who is wearing a flak jacket anyway.

The biggest weakness of the Jaguars defense is against the tight end. Expect that Franks has at least his 30 yard average with a great shot at scoring this week.

JAX GB 2004 Averages GB JAX
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
230
255
Pass yards
266
224
1.2
2.1
Pass TDs
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.5
Interceptions
1.2
0.5
12
13
Rush yards
4
11
0.2
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.2
---
---
RB's
---
---
101
94
Rush yards
119
89
0.2
0.6
Rush TDs
0.6
0.4
41
46
Receive yards
50
45
0.2
0.8
Receive TD's
0.4
0.1
---
---
WR's
---
---
159
172
Receive yards
190
143
0.8
1.0
Receive TD's
1.4
0.6
---
---
TE's
---
---
29
39
Receive yards
28
40
0.2
0.2
Receive TD's
0.3
0.4
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.7
1.3
Field Goals
1.5
1.3
1.2
2.8
Extra Points
2.9
1.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.7
0.8
Fumbles
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.0
Interceptions
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.1
Touchdowns
0.2
0.3
2.2
0.8
Sacks
2.3
2.2
0.2
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jaguars (7-6)
Score Opp.
13-10 @BUF
7-6 DEN
15-12 @TEN
17-24 IND
21-34 @SD
22-16 KC
27-24 @IND
6-20 @HOU
Week 9 bye
23-17 DET
15-18 TEN
16-27 @MIN
16-17 PIT
22-3 CHI
Week 15 @GB
Week 16 HOU
Week 17 @OAK
Packers (8-5)
Score Opp.
24-14 @CAR
10-21 CHI
31-45 @IND
7-14 NYG
27-48 TEN
38-10 @DET
41-20 DAL
28-14 @WAS
Week 9 bye
34-31 MIN
16-13 @HOU
45-17 STL
17-47 @PHI
16-13 DET
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 @CHI