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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 15
December 15, 2004
Season Ticket
Saturday Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
PIT at NYG 1 * BUF at CIN * SD at CLE* STL at ARZ BAL at IND *
WAS at SF 5 * HOU at CHI SEA at NYJ DEN at KC * Mon 9 PM
CAR at ATL 8:30 JAX at GB * DAL at PHI * NO at TB NE at MIA*
Times ET MIN at DET TEN at OAK * *updated Times ET
  Seattle Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 0 0 210,1
RB Shaun Alexander 90,1 30 0
TE Jerramy Stevens 0 10 0
WR Darrell Jackson 0 60,1 0
WR Bobby Engram 0 40 0
WR Jerry Rice 0 50 0
PK Josh Brown 1 FG 2 XP -
  NY Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 230,1
RB Curtis Martin 100,1 10 0
RB Lamont Jordan 20 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 10 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 40 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 60 0
WR Santana Moss 0 80,1 0
PK Doug Brien 3 FG 2 XP -

SEA (7-6) vs NYJ (9-4)

Game Prediction: SEA 17, NYJ 23

Both these teams need to win this game to stay in the race for the playoffs and the Jets are only shooting for a wildcard berth now in spite of a better record than Seattle. When the NFL reorganized the league, the Seahawks did not realize that the NFC West was the best thing that could ever happen to them.

Pre-Game Notes - SEA

Seattle made some amends for losing two straight home games by beating the Vikings on the road. While this team has been inconsistent this season and considered a big disappointment, they are still a game ahead of the Rams for the NFC West lead.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck comes off two straight monster games of 414 and 334 yards with three touchdowns in each. That's likely what someone will remember in the drafts next summer instead of the nine scores in the first eight games. Don't be that person.

Running Backs: Shaun Alexander gained 112 rushing yards last week with one score on a reception. He has 16 touchdowns on the season already and only fails to be a fantasy factor when the team falls behind and stops running the ball.

Wide Receivers: Darrell Jackson is the first to benefit when Hasselbeck gets hot, he had 113 yards and 135 yards in the last two games with scores in each. But he also suffered through three straight games under 45 yards previous to that against better secondaries like MIA and BUF.

Jerry Rice had a temporary revival against the Cowboys but only had 52 yards last week. Against top secondaries he's often only had one catch in a game.

Tight Ends: After Jeremy Stevens had 58 yards against Dallas, he never even had a pass last week. Itula Mili did have a pass, he just did not catch it.

Match Against the Defense: Seattle has struggled against the AFC East teams already this season and the Jets at home will be a major challenge. They feature a top five defense against every fantasy position except for tight end which the Seahawks do not really use anyway.

Expect that Alexander could score once - he almost always does. But the yardage should remain only moderate.

Hasselbeck won't be facing the worst secondaries like MIN or DAL, he's going against a team that has allowed only one passing score in the last four games and no team has been as successful as Hasselbeck has been the last two weeks. No team has thrown for more than two scores against the Jets this season and if Hasselbeck manages more than one, he'll be exceeding expectations.

Pre-Game Notes - NYJ

The Jets still have not clinched a wild card though they have a one game lead over both Denver and Baltimore. With a game against the Patriots looming in week 16 and then a road game in St. Louis left, this game presents a win they need and should get.

Quarterback: Chad Pennington has been a fantasy dud for all but the first two games of the season, aided in part by the strong rushing by Martin. He has a chance for improving his numbers against a Seattle defense that will be softer than most but he only had 155 yards and two scores when he faced the Texans - and that's almost hard to do.

Running Backs: Curtis Martin only gained 72 yards in Pittsburgh last week but he's been good for 80 to 90 yards a game all season. He's only had one 100+ yard game in the last five games though while scoring only once in that time. He's slowed down some here as the season grows long but the passing game has not picked up to cover him.

Wide Receivers: The wideouts have only combined for six touchdowns this entire season. Santana Moss alone scored in seven straight games in 2003. This offense has been about strong running and when that has not worked well enough, the offense cannot just switch to passing well. Santana Moss has the only two 100 yard games this season and yet has only managed four catches for 43 yards in the last two games.

Tight Ends: No impact and only one score in the last five weeks. They rarely catch more than one pass per game.

Match Against the Defense: Curtis Martin faces a very soft rush defense this week and should be able to turn in at least his average 80 yard game with a chance with one of his too rare 100+ yard games this week.

Pennington will throw for one score since the last five road opponents have done as much when facing ther Seahawks and there's a chance that Pennington will finally net some decent passing yardage here. The last seven opponents against Seattle have all thrown for more than 220 yards. This will be one of the last few chances that Moss has a matchup that he can exploit if you can possibly put any faith in him anymore.

SEA NYJ 2004 Averages NYJ SEA
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
246
201
Pass yards
196
241
1.5
1.0
Pass TDs
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
Interceptions
0.6
1.5
8
9
Rush yards
10
9
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.1
0.2
---
---
RB's
---
---
126
91
Rush yards
138
103
0.9
0.5
Rush TDs
0.9
1.0
21
34
Receive yards
38
33
0.3
0.1
Receive TD's
0.2
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
183
138
Receive yards
139
166
1.0
0.7
Receive TD's
0.5
1.1
---
---
TE's
---
---
42
29
Receive yards
19
42
0.2
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.2
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.7
0.9
Field Goals
1.5
1.8
2.4
1.7
Extra Points
2.0
2.2
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.5
Fumbles
0.9
0.5
1.5
0.8
Interceptions
0.9
1.2
0.2
0.1
Touchdowns
0.2
0.0
2.2
1.9
Sacks
2.0
1.9
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.0
0.1
Seahawks (7-6)
Score Opp.
21-7 @NO
10-6 @TB
34-0 SF
Week 4 bye
27-33 STL
20-30 @NE
17-25 @ARI
23-17 CAR
42-27 @SF
12-23 @STL
24-17 MIA
9-38 BUF
39-42 DAL
27-23 @MIN
Week 15 @NYJ
Week 16 ARI
Week 17 ATL
Jets (9-4)
Score Opp.
31-24 CIN
34-28 @SD
Week 3 bye
17-9 @MIA
16-14 BUF
22-14 SF
7-13 @NE
41-14 MIA
17-22 @BUF
17-20 BAL
10-7 @CLE
13-3 @ARI
29-7 HOU
6-17 @PIT
Week 15 SEA
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @STL