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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 16
December 22, 2004
Season Ticket
Friday Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
GB at MIN CHI at DET ATL at NO * NE at NYJ * CLE at MIA
Saturday NYG at CIN * BAL at PIT BUF at SF * Mon 9 PM
DEN at TEN 8:30 HOU at JAX * CAR at TB WAS at DAL PHI at STL
OAK at KC 5 * SD at IND * Good Luck!!! ARZ at SEA *updated
  New England Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 0 0 220,1
RB Kevin Faulk 20 30 0
RB Corey Dillon 80,1 10 0
TE Daniel Graham 0 30 0
WR David Patten 0 60,1 0
WR Deion Branch 0 50 0
WR David Givens 0 40,1 0
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP -
  NY Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 200,2
RB Curtis Martin 100,1 20 0
RB Lamont Jordan 30 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 10 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 20 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 90,1 0
WR Santana Moss 0 50,1 0
PK Doug Brien 1 FG 3 XP -

NE (12-2) vs NYJ (10-4)

Game Prediction: NE 20, NYJ 24

The loss last week by the Patriots sort of took most of the wind out of the sails for this game. Now that New England trails Pittsburgh by a game with a head to head tie breaker owned by the Steelers, the Patriots have no where to go. Sure, they could lose the next two games and make it more interesting but the final game against the 49ers is like a cashier check just waiting for redemption.

This is a rematch of week seven when the Patriots won 13-7.

Update: Givens continues to be bothered by an ankle sprain and has not practiced this week. I am removing him from the projections though he has not been officially ruled out.

Pre-Game Notes - NE

The Patriots loss in Miami likely has as much an emotional component as anything. The loss doesn't mean their playoff hopes are different necessarily, but it certainly is not a way to end the season on a strong note.

Quarterback: Tom Brady comes off only his third three-touchdown game of the year but he only had 171 yards and threw four interceptions against Miami. It's not so much an indictment against Brady though - he always struggles against the Dolphins. Back in week seven he had 230 yards and one score in the first meeting against the Jets.

Running Backs: Corey Dillon has scored in each of the last five games and comes off a strong 121 yard game against the Dolphins. He had 115 yards against the Jets in the last meeting though it was one of only two games in the last nine weeks that he failed to score.

Wide Receivers: The wideout crew has been pretty quiet for the last month mainly thanks to more of them being healthy again and watering each other's production down ala Patriot Style. Deion Branch only has a high of 51 yards during the last month and David Patten has been the most productive of the bunch. He has two scores in the last three games but only came up with 40 yards last week.

In the previous meeting against the Jets, David Givens had the big game with 107 yards while David Patten had the score with only 33 yards on three catches. Givens had two scores last year in New York.

Tight Ends: Daniel Graham came up with a touchdown last week but it was his first in nine games and he only totaled 24 yards.

Match Against the Defense: Brady's 230 yards represents the second most yardage allowed by the Jets this season and the most in the last nine weeks. The Jets are playing better and Brady will likely struggle to reach that level.

Expect that Corey Dillon will run a solid game but not likely reach 100 yards since no runner has eclipsed 79 yards as a visitor this entire season. He may score once but no one has score twice against the Jets on the ground.

The Patriots are also spreading the ball around again including bringing Daniel Graham back into the scheme after nine weeks. I'll project for one score to go to Givens who has been the best but it could go anywhere.

Pre-Game Notes - NYJ

The Jets are primed for this matchup after big wins in the last two games at home. The offense never looked better than last week against the Seahawks and if they Jets are peaking, they are doing it at the right time.

Quarterback: After a terrible outing in Pittsburgh, Chad Pennington had his best game of the year last week when he threw for 253 yards and three scores with no turnovers against the Seahawks. He only managed 189 yards and three interceptions the previous week. Back in week seven, Pennington only managed to throw for 162 yards but did rush in one score.

Running Backs: Curtis Martin became the oldest player in NFL history to rush for 1,500 yards after gaining 134 yards last week against Seattle. He also scored twice boosting his season total to 14 touchdowns on the season. Back in week seven, Martin gained only 70 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots.

Martin has ran for over 100 yards and scored in each of his last five home games.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss doubled his season total for touchdowns when he had two scores against Seattle last week though he still only had 79 yards on five catches. He only had 43 total yards in the two previous games and only 12 yards the last time he faced the Patriots.

Justin McCareins also scored last week and he was the most productive wideout against the Patriots, gaining 83 yards in the last meeting.

Tight Ends: Neither Chris Baker or Anthony Becht have any fantasy value. Becht scored a touchdown two games ago and has not managed over 10 yards in any of the last seven games. Baker is better at yardage if you call a high of 33 yards as worthwhile.

Match Against the Defense: Martin should run reasonably well this week and he's been on a roll at home this entire season. Where the Jets have to win this game is with the pass and while Pennington looked sharp, finally, last week against the Seahawks he has to do well here. He's had six straight games with lesser results and the Patriot secondary has never been weaker.

This game is very important to the Jets. A win here puts a stamp of legitimacy on the team that is looking better as the season progresses and a loss at home only means that they still are second class in the AFC East.

Moss never scored last year against the Patriots nor had more than 52 yards. He only had 12 yards earlier this year. Expect most of the receiving to go through McCareins once again unless Moss finally stands up and makes a difference. He doesn't have Ty Law this year for an excuse.

NE NYJ 2004 Averages NYJ NE
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
232
201
Pass yards
200
233
1.7
1.1
Pass TDs
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
Interceptions
0.6
1.3
1
9
Rush yards
9
10
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.1
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
130
91
Rush yards
144
85
1.0
0.4
Rush TDs
1.0
0.4
35
33
Receive yards
43
30
0.1
0.1
Receive TD's
0.2
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
160
136
Receive yards
138
165
1.0
0.7
Receive TD's
0.7
1.1
---
---
TE's
---
---
35
32
Receive yards
19
38
0.5
0.4
Receive TD's
0.3
0.1
---
---
PK's
---
---
2.0
0.9
Field Goals
1.5
1.1
3.1
1.7
Extra Points
2.1
1.5
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.4
Fumbles
1.0
0.7
1.3
0.7
Interceptions
0.9
1.0
0.4
0.1
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
3.0
1.8
Sacks
2.1
1.7
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Patriots (12-2)
Score Opp.
27-24 IND
23-12 @ARI
Week 3 bye
31-17 @BUF
24-10 MIA
30-20 SEA
13-7 NYJ
20-34 @PIT
40-22 @STL
29-6 BUF
27-19 @KC
24-3 BAL
42-15 @CLE
35-28 CIN
28-29 @MIA
Week 16 @NYJ
Week 17 SF
Jets (10-4)
Score Opp.
31-24 CIN
34-28 @SD
Week 3 bye
17-9 @MIA
16-14 BUF
22-14 SF
7-13 @NE
41-14 MIA
17-22 @BUF
17-20 BAL
10-7 @CLE
13-3 @ARI
29-7 HOU
6-17 @PIT
37-14 SEA
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @STL