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FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David M. Dorey
The Huddle
WEEK 17
January 2, 2005
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
MIA at BAL * CLE at HOU * DET at TEN TB at ARZ DAL at NYG *
PIT at BUF SF at NE * MIN at WAS IND at DEN Happy
GB at CHI CIN at PHI * Sun 4 PM JAX at OAK * New Year!
NO at CAR NYJ at STL ATL at SEA * KC at SD * *updated
  NY Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 200,2
RB Curtis Martin 90 20 0
RB Lamont Jordan 20 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 10 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 30 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 60,1 0
WR Santana Moss 0 70,1 0
PK Doug Brien 2 FG 2 XP -
  St. Louis Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Bulger 0 0 220,2
RB Marshall Faulk 40 20 0
RB Steven Jackson 60 10 0
TE B. Manumaleuna 0 10 0
WR Isaac Bruce 0 60,1 0
WR Torry Holt 0 70,1 0
WR Shaun McDonald 0 20 0
PK Jeff Wilkins 1 FG 2 XP -

NYJ (10-5) vs STL (7-8)

Game Prediction: NYJ 20, STL 17

Here's a game with playoff implications that will ensure 100% effort from all concerned. The Jets win and they lock up the #5 seed with an 11-5 record. If they lose, they need help. The Rams win and they still are in contention with some help and if they lose, they are out.

Pre-Game Notes - NYJ

The Jets secure a playoff spot with a win here or even if they lose, they can still secure a wildcard if there is a loss by either Denver or Buffalo. They had a great chance to wrap things up last week and were thrashed by the Pats.

Quarterback: Chad Pennington has been very inconsistent this year (with a leaning towards "disappointing") but his best game was only two weeks ago against another NFC West team in Seattle. He looked a bit foolish shooting his mouth off to the media after the Seattle win when he followed that up last week with one score and three turnovers. Here's a chance to make himself look good again.

Running Backs: Curtis Martin has been like gold at home (last week not withstanding) but on the road he has been much less a fantasy force. He has not exceeded 100 yards or scored in the last five road games. This will be his first game in a dome this season as well.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss is making some amends for a hugely disappointing year by scoring ie each of the last two games though he has not crested 100 yards since week 12 and only has two 100 yard games this season. Justin McCareins has become just a possession receiver who is good for around 50 to 60 yards a week but only with one score in the last five weeks.

Tight Ends: Maybe one catch a game. Not a factor.

Match Against the Defense: The Rams rush defense looks better than it really is since their schedule has actually been largely devoid of big-time running backs. Expect that Martin turns in at least a moderate game but he won't likely get very big if he follows his trends or that of the Rams at home.

Pennington should manage two scores here against a secondary that has allowed at least that many to most opponents this season. His yardage should peter out after he crests 200 yards and Martin should have enough of a load this week to cut down on the number of plays anyway.

Pre-Game Notes - STL

The Rams come off a win over the Eagles who were merely doing a walk-through instead of actually playing the game. They needed that fortuitous matchup to make this week matter after dropping four of the previous five games.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger returned last week but only had 225 yards and one score against an Eagles defense that was yawning most of the game. He has only two games at home that has two scores, otherwise he only throws one touchdown each week in St. Louis.

Running Backs: After mysteriously ignoring Steven Jackson in Arizona, Mike Martz ran him 24 times for 148 yards and one score last week against the Eagles. Marshall Faulk only managed 54 yards on 17 carries and has never done anything this season outside of divisional matchups.

Wide Receivers: With Bulger back behind center, Isaac Bruce came back to life last week and had one score during eight catches for 98 yards. Torry Holt had been huge for three weeks but with Bulger back returned to only 75 yards and no scores against the Eagles. Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald still figure in, as does Dale Looker finally but none of them have scored since week ten.

Tight Ends: One catch a week. If that.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets will bring one of the best defenses that the Rams have faced all season and not one opponent has thrown for more than two scores or 280 yards in the best case. Bulger will be challenged enough to meet the two scores and anything over 220 yards will be among the highest allowed games by the Jets this season.

The Jets have not allowed an opponent running back to run for more than 89 yards in the last seven games and have only allowed two rushing scores in that time as well. For the Rams to score points, it will have to come through the air.

NYJ STL 2004 Averages STL NYJ
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
203
212
Pass yards
277
205
1.2
1.5
Pass TDs
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.4
Interceptions
1.3
1.1
9
15
Rush yards
6
8
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.2
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
137
114
Rush yards
98
92
0.9
0.7
Rush TDs
0.5
0.4
45
40
Receive yards
35
34
0.2
0.1
Receive TD's
0.1
0.1
---
---
WR's
---
---
141
137
Receive yards
243
137
0.7
0.9
Receive TD's
1.3
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
17
38
Receive yards
13
34
0.3
0.5
Receive TD's
0.1
0.4
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.9
Field Goals
1.2
1.0
2.1
2.5
Extra Points
1.9
1.7
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
1.1
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.3
Interceptions
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.3
Touchdowns
0.2
0.1
2.0
3.1
Sacks
2.1
1.9
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.1
Jets (10-5)
Score Opp.
31-24 CIN
34-28 @SD
Week 3 bye
17-9 @MIA
16-14 BUF
22-14 SF
7-13 @NE
41-14 MIA
17-22 @BUF
17-20 BAL
10-7 @CLE
13-3 @ARI
29-7 HOU
6-17 @PIT
37-14 SEA
7-23 NE
Week 17 @STL
Rams (7-8)
Score Opp.
17-10 ARI
17-34 @ATL
25-28 NO
24-14 @SF
33-27 @SEA
28-21 TB
14-31 @MIA
Week 8 bye
22-40 NE
23-12 SEA
17-37 @BUF
17-45 @GB
16-6 SF
7-20 @CAR
7-31 @ARI
20-7 PHI
Week 17 NYJ