fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    
HOME ARTICLES NEWS DRAFT GUIDE REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS NFL TEAMS MESSAGE BOARDS

FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEKLY FEATURES

Inside The Points - Super Bowl
Fritz Schlottman
February 4, 2005

NEW ENGLAND VS. PHILADELPHIA

Vegas Line
NE -7 (opened at -6) TOTAL 48 (opened at 47.5)

Predicted Outcome
NE 27 PHI 17

Records

NE
SU (16-2-0)
ATS (13-3-2)
OVER/UNDER (9-8-1), O/U AWAY (6-3-0)

PHI
SU (15-3-0)
ATS (11-7-0)
OVER/UNDER (5-12-1), O/U HOME (3-6-1)

Recent Meetings

 

 

 

 

NE

 

 

PHI

 

Date

Away

Home

TOTAL

RUSH

PASS

TOTAL

RUSH

PASS

8/13/2004

PHI 6

NE 24

251

157

94

217

104

113

9/14/2003

NE 31

PHI 10

309

62

247

268

99

169

Commentary

No game gets more attention each year than the Super Bowl, so I never expect to get any line value with the favorite. I made the spread NE -4 when I first ran the numbers so seven is about right when you factor in the tax the wise guys are going to make you pay for betting on the favorite.

I think there are a few plays here. First, I’d look at New England on the Money Line. Most players normally bet the underdog to win the game and few people look at the favorite so you get some line value going against the public. I’m not comfortable laying a touchdown with New England, but I really don’t expect the Eagles to win the game either. If the game goes to -7.5 you can set up a pretty good middle by betting New England on the Money Line at $240 and then betting the Eagles a -7.5. By setting up the middle, you have a pretty good chance of winning both sides of your bet without putting a lot of capital at risk.

The second play that looks interesting is playing the under on the total if it goes to 49. Both teams have outstanding defenses. The public knows what the Patriots have done in their last two games against the AFC’s best (Colts and Steelers), but Philadelphia has three secondary players headed to the Pro Bowl, the pass rush had 52 sacks (first in the NFL) and Philly’s run defense has been a lot better since MLB Trotter became a starter in the middle of the season. Neither team is going to put together 80-yard drives on the opposing defenses nor is it likely that either quarterback (Brady and McNabb) will throw many interceptions. If you don’t get a cheap touchdown off a special teams play, I think 49 points is about a touchdown too high.

Finally, there are some props that look interesting. I personally like expensive props. You have to lay $300 to make $80, but the chances of losing the bet are smaller than price you’re paying. Missed extra point is a good one. Both teams have quality field goal kickers and the odds they will miss one is pretty remote. Will there be a safety and Will there be overtime is two other good bets. There has never been an overtime game in the Super Bowl, and while it will happen sooner or later, at a seven point spread it’s unlikely this year.

Propositions are also good opportunities for arbitrage. Unlike the point spread and the total, individual properties in Las Vegas often set their own lines on props and they very widely from one property to another. You are often able to bet both sides of a proposition and make money without risking any capital. For example, if you bet Game lands on exactly seven points you can bet that it doesn’t and pay 10-1 at one property and go down the street and bet that it does at 15-1. If the game were to land on seven, you win and if it doesn’t, you’ve covered your bet.

Thanks for your support this season and best of luck in 2005.