| 2004 Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing Running Backs |
| Best to Face |
Average |
Worst to Face |
| TM |
Allowed |
TM |
Allowed |
TM |
Allowed |
| OAK |
25.2 |
CAR |
21.8 |
JAX |
17.5 |
| SF |
24.7 |
NYG |
21.6 |
PHI |
17.4 |
| CLE |
24.1 |
ATL |
21.4 |
WAS |
16.8 |
| GB |
23.3 |
ARZ |
20.7 |
HOU |
16.2 |
| NO |
22.6 |
CHI |
20.6 |
SD |
15.3 |
| MIN |
22.5 |
KC |
20.2 |
DEN |
15.3 |
| IND |
22.3 |
DAL |
19.9 |
BAL |
14.9 |
| SEA |
22.2 |
DET |
19.7 |
NYJ |
14.1 |
| CIN |
22.1 |
STL |
19.6 |
BUF |
13.9 |
| MIA |
22.1 |
TB |
17.5 |
NE |
12.9 |
| TEN |
21.9 |
|
PIT |
11.4 |
The running back schedule is always the most interesting one since all teams will run the ball given a choice. Of the three EOS reviews, the running back version always proves to be the most accurate.
The breakdowns on "good" and "bad" matchups are all exactly what happened from week 3 through 16 of last season. Obviously the 0.1 point separating Tennessee (good) and Carolina (average) is meaningless, but it's reasonable to accept that the Titans will still have a worse defense than the Panthers this year. Conversely, both the Buccaneers and Jaguars tied at 17.5 but I considered the Jaguars to have the better defense this year. A bit subjective but a call had to be made. If Tampa Bay has a rushing game this year with Cadillac Williams, it will encourage opponents to run more in the game that will be "slowed down".
FULL SEASON - Kevin Jones appears to enjoy the best schedule in the NFL for his sophomore campaign while the rookie Cedric Benson ties with Steven Jackson (as long as Marshall Faulk stays out of the way). Interestingly, the next three best schedules - Cleveland, Minnesota and Tennessee - are all considered a mess to determine what running back will be reliable this season. A scheduling quirk suddenly gives the Chiefs the worst rushing schedule in the NFL this year thanks to matchups against the AFC East and NFC East. The entirety of the AFC West neatly fills out the bottom of the list for the same reason, followed by all those AFC East teams. Obviously several of the tailbacks are better than their schedule, but it is a consideration.
THE DOREY RULE / THE FIRST SIX WEEKS - Since debuting in 1997, The Dorey Rule has helped many fantasy teams get off to a nice start for the season. Look for Steven Jackson to run very well in those first weeks so long as Faulk is not a hawk. After Jackson, only the Panthers have any easier schedule statistically which could help De'shaun Foster post some nice numbers before getting injured again. Both the AFC East and AFC West backs catch no break even at the start of the year.
PLAYOFFS - The best stretch of the year for Kevin Jones comes at the perfect time - weeks 14 through 16 when he faces Green Bay, Cincinnati and New Orleans. Shaun Alexander has a tough start in the first six weeks but plays out his fantasy season against San Francisco, Tennessee and Indianapolis. Sounds like "ka-ching" time. The worst time? J.J. Arrington gets to go against Washington, Houston and Philadelphia right when you needed him most.
| Weeks 1 through 16 |
First Six Weeks - The Dorey Rule |
Weeks 14, 15 and 16 |
NFL
Team |
EOS
Rank |
Good
Games |
Tough
Games |
NFL
Team |
EOS
Rank |
Good
Games |
Tough
Games |
NFL
Team |
EOS
Rank |
Good
Games |
Tough
Games |
| DET |
5 |
7 |
2 |
STL |
4 |
4 |
0 |
DET |
3 |
3 |
0 |
| CHI |
3 |
7 |
4 |
CAR |
2 |
3 |
1 |
SEA |
3 |
3 |
0 |
| STL |
3 |
8 |
5 |
ARZ |
1 |
2 |
1 |
PIT |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| CLE |
2 |
8 |
6 |
BAL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
SD |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| MIN |
2 |
5 |
3 |
CHI |
1 |
3 |
2 |
ATL |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| TEN |
2 |
8 |
6 |
CIN |
1 |
3 |
2 |
BAL |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| ATL |
1 |
6 |
5 |
CLE |
1 |
3 |
2 |
CAR |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| CAR |
1 |
5 |
4 |
GB |
1 |
2 |
1 |
CLE |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| GB |
1 |
5 |
4 |
IND |
1 |
3 |
2 |
JAX |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| HOU |
1 |
7 |
6 |
MIN |
1 |
2 |
1 |
NYJ |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| PIT |
1 |
8 |
7 |
NO |
1 |
2 |
1 |
STL |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| ARZ |
0 |
5 |
5 |
PHI |
1 |
2 |
1 |
TEN |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| BAL |
0 |
7 |
7 |
TB |
1 |
3 |
2 |
CHI |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| JAX |
0 |
7 |
7 |
ATL |
0 |
3 |
3 |
CIN |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| PHI |
0 |
4 |
4 |
BUF |
0 |
2 |
2 |
HOU |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| SF |
0 |
4 |
4 |
HOU |
0 |
3 |
3 |
NO |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| TB |
0 |
5 |
5 |
JAX |
0 |
3 |
3 |
PHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| NO |
-1 |
3 |
4 |
DAL |
-1 |
2 |
3 |
SF |
0 |
1 |
1 |
| SEA |
-1 |
4 |
5 |
DET |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
WAS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| WAS |
-1 |
3 |
4 |
NYG |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
BUF |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
| BUF |
-2 |
5 |
7 |
SF |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
DAL |
-1 |
0 |
1 |
| CIN |
-2 |
6 |
8 |
TEN |
-1 |
2 |
3 |
DEN |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
| IND |
-3 |
6 |
9 |
WAS |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
GB |
-1 |
0 |
1 |
| NYG |
-3 |
4 |
7 |
NE |
-2 |
1 |
3 |
IND |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
| DAL |
-4 |
3 |
7 |
NYJ |
-2 |
1 |
3 |
KC |
-1 |
0 |
1 |
| MIA |
-4 |
4 |
8 |
SD |
-2 |
1 |
3 |
MIA |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
| NE |
-4 |
4 |
8 |
DEN |
-3 |
1 |
4 |
OAK |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
| NYJ |
-4 |
4 |
8 |
SEA |
-3 |
0 |
3 |
TB |
-1 |
0 |
1 |
| SD |
-4 |
4 |
8 |
KC |
-4 |
1 |
5 |
MIN |
-2 |
0 |
2 |
| DEN |
-6 |
3 |
9 |
MIA |
-4 |
0 |
4 |
NE |
-2 |
0 |
2 |
| OAK |
-7 |
3 |
10 |
OAK |
-4 |
0 |
4 |
NYG |
-2 |
0 |
2 |
| KC |
-8 |
3 |
11 |
PIT |
-4 |
1 |
5 |
ARZ |
-3 |
0 |
3 |
Best RB Schedules - Full Season
| TEAM |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| CHI |
@WAS |
DET |
CIN |
BYE |
@CLE |
MIN |
BAL |
@DET |
@NO |
SF |
CAR |
@TB |
GB |
@PIT |
ATL |
@GB |
| DET |
GB |
@CHI |
BYE |
@TB |
BAL |
CAR |
@CLE |
CHI |
@MIN |
ARZ |
@DAL |
ATL |
MIN |
@GB |
CIN |
@NO |
| STL |
@SF |
@ARZ |
TEN |
@NYG |
SEA |
@IND |
NO |
JAX |
BYE |
@SEA |
ARZ |
@HOU |
WAS |
@MIN |
PHI |
SF |
Worst RB Schedules - Full Season
| TEAM |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| DEN |
@MIA |
SD |
KC |
@JAX |
WAS |
NE |
@NYG |
PHI |
BYE |
@OAK |
NYJ |
@DAL |
@KC |
BAL |
@BUF |
OAK |
| KC |
NYJ |
@OAK |
@DEN |
PHI |
BYE |
WAS |
@MIA |
@SD |
OAK |
@BUF |
@HOU |
NE |
DEN |
@DAL |
@NYG |
SD |
| OAK |
@NE |
KC |
@PHI |
DAL |
BYE |
SD |
BUF |
@TEN |
@KC |
DEN |
@WAS |
MIA |
@SD |
@NYJ |
CLE |
@DEN |
| Best RB Schedules - First Six Weeks |
|
Worst RB Schedules - First Six Weeks |
| |
|
|
| TEAM |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| CAR |
NO |
NE |
@MIA |
GB |
@ARZ |
@DET |
| STL |
@SF |
@ARZ |
TEN |
@NYG |
SEA |
@IND |
|
|
| TEAM |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| KC |
NYJ |
@OAK |
@DEN |
PHI |
BYE |
WAS |
| MIA |
DEN |
@NYJ |
CAR |
BYE |
@BUF |
@TB |
| OAK |
@NE |
KC |
@PHI |
DAL |
BYE |
SD |
| PIT |
TEN |
@HOU |
NE |
BYE |
@SD |
JAX |
|
| Best RB Schedules - Fantasy Playoffs |
|
Worst RB Schedules - Fantasy Playoffs |
|
| |
|
|
|
| TEAM |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| DET |
@GB |
CIN |
@NO |
| PIT |
CHI |
@MIN |
@CLE |
| SD |
MIA |
@IND |
@KC |
| SEA |
SF |
@TEN |
IND |
|
|
| TEAM |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| ARI |
WAS |
@HOU |
PHI |
| MIN |
STL |
PIT |
@BAL |
| NE |
@BUF |
TB |
@NYJ |
| NYG |
@PHI |
KC |
@WAS |
|
|
|