FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability - Defense/Special Teams
David Dorey
July 22, 2005

Reviewing the repeatability of defenses is a challenge since literally every league has different scoring. All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics which awards one point per sack, two points per turnover recovered and six point touchdowns. Safeties are two points.

Be careful in applying this in light of the differing scoring scenario that your league may employ. This scoring measures the sacks, turnovers and touchdowns but in others the introduction of yardage or points allowed can have a tremendous difference to the results.

	2000	Pts	2001	Pts	2002	Pts	2003	Pts	2004	Pts
1	DEN	144	CLE	118	TB	122	BAL	125	BUF	146
2	TB	140	NE	117	PHI	119	NE	125	BAL	127
3	NO	131	CHI	117	GB	113	STL	120	ATL	116
4	OAK	127	GB	115	NO	113	KC	115	NE	112
5	TEN	121	PIT	114	CAR	112	TEN	110	IND	111
6	MIA	109	STL	113	OAK	110	MIA	101	CHI	109

7	PHI	105	SD	109	ATL	105	MIN	100	PIT	106
8	BAL	103	NYJ	108	BAL	101	DET	98	CIN	103
9	STL	100	PHI	107	PIT	99	CAR	97	DET	100
10	PIT	100	TB	103	NE	99	SF	93	TB	96
11	KC	98	MIA	102	DET	94	NYG	92	NO	95
12	CAR	96	OAK	95	SD	93	ATL	91	NYJ	93

13	SEA	95	CAR	92	TEN	93	SEA	90	NYG	93
14	SD	93	SEA	92	HOU	92	TB	89	CAR	90
15	DET	88	NO	91	MIA	88	GB	86	SEA	89
16	NYJ	87	IND	89	KC	88	PHI	85	PHI	87
17	ATL	87	JAX	89	SEA	87	PIT	83	KC	86
18	IND	87	CIN	88	DAL	85	OAK	82	GB	85
19	BUF	83	DEN	88	WAS	85	DAL	81	HOU	84
20	NYG	82	BAL	87	DEN	83	BUF	80	ARI	81
21	CHI	80	NYG	87	CLE	76	NO	79	MIN	79
22	GB	80	SF	85	STL	76	IND	79	WAS	77
23	WAS	80	TEN	81	NYJ	76	DEN	76	SAN	76
24	CLE	74	DET	77	NYG	74	CLE	69	MIA	75
The Following season:			Remained Top 6		Became 7-12		Became 13-24		Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	1	1	0	1	0	2
7 to 12	2	3	3	2	1	0
13 - 24	2	1	3	1	5	2
Duds	1	1	0	2	0	2
7 to 12 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	1	1	2	1	2	1
7 to 12	2	1	2	2	2	2
13 - 24	1	1	1	2	1	2
Duds	1	3	1	1	1	1
Top 6 was:	Avg.	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Top 6	1	1	0	1	0	2
7 to 12	2	1	2	3	2	1
13 - 24	3	3	3	2	2	2
24+	1	1	1	0	2	1

The history of Top 6 defenses in this scoring scenario is not very good. In all but one of the last five seasons, there were either one or no team that repeated into the next Top 6. What happened to many were merely dropping down to the 7th to 12th range (still a starter) but even that has fallen apart the last two years.

The 7th to 12th area is no more easy to count on. While two did remain in the same tier, on average the other four teams involved would be equally spread out among the other three categories. You can still rely on a Top 12 defense repeating to the Top 12 about half the time, but as with kickers and tight ends, only the Top 6 truly make any difference for you.

When you are hunting for one of those Top 6 defense and considering the past season, you can almost use a dart if you hope repeatability matters. Consider too that the difference between the 7th best and 12th best defense rarely matters more than one point per game.

Repeat Repeatability		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1	BAL	8	20	8	1	2
2	TB	2	10	1	14	14
3	NE		2	10	2	3
4	CAR	12	13	5	9	9
5	PIT	10	5	9	17	8
6	PHI	7	9	2	16	16
7	NO	3	15	4	21	10
8	MIA	6	11	15	6
9	ATL	17		7	12	4
10	OAK	4	12	6	18
11	STL	9	6	22	3
12	TEN	5	23	13	5	21
13	GB	22	4	3	15	24
14	DET	15	24	11	8	12
15	SEA	13	14	17	13	13
16	KC	11		16	4	20
17	SD	14	7	12		19
18	CHI	21	3			7
19	NYJ	16	8	23		11
20	IND	18	16		22	5
21	DEN	1	19	20	23
22	BUF	19			20	1
23	NYG	20	21	24	11	15
24	CLE	24	1	21	24
25	CIN		18			6
26	MIN				7	23
24	HOU			14		17
28	SF		22		10
29	DAL			18	19
30	WAS	23		19		22
31	JAX		17
32	ARZ					18

Defense Repeatability
32% - 0%

Only Baltimore and New England have produced repeats for the Top 6 and if you remove those two defenses, then it plummets to zero percent for repeat reliability in this scoring scenario. Green Bay is the only other team to manage the feat in the last five years and they fell to 24th in 2004. The Bills are a hot defense this season since they were #1 in 2004, but historically they have been barely worth keeping as a back-up. Defenses do change over time but for the measureables of this fantasy scoring, it's pretty much either take New England or Baltimore or wait and take your chances. This actually suggests getting a few decent defenses and playing the matchup game instead of just one and letting it ride every week.