FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

With running backs flying off the board in drafts this summer, you'd think that they are all no-miss picks with little risk. Ends up that they have been among the more consistent fantasy values in recent years but that is "recent years". The lack of any rookie running backs in the last two seasons seems to coincide with an increased consistency of Top 12 players repeating the next year. 2002 witnessed an unprecedented event - all Top 6 players from that year went on to remain in the Top 12 the following season. Not a dud in the bunch and 2003 was another good year with only Lewis missing time from his legal problems and Green falling. Otherwise, it was a banner season again for repeating. The 2000 and 2001 seasons are far more similar to what historically occurs.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. This awards 1/10 for yardage and six point touchdowns.

The Top 6 the last two seasons have returned over half to the Top 12 the next year - an aberration considering history that rarely witnesses more than half of any position seeing players repeat great performances. Even more notable - there were no duds from the Top 6 in the last two years which may heighten the confidence people have when drafting tailbacks.

The 7 to 12 range rarely witnesses a player step up into the very top tier and surprisingly, almost none of the players stay in the top 7 to 12 range. They typically split between slipping down to an RB2 range if not to more of a back-up value.

Looking backwards from the Top 12, there were usually six to eight of the Top 12 that turned into a player that still ranked in the Top 24 the next year. Then the last two seasons has seen 11 and 10 players remain in that top 24 bracket the following year - an amazing consistency that has bent the general rule.

Notice too that the Top 12 normally had two players that were rookies each season and yet the recent drought of top caliber tailbacks from college is mirrored in their absence the last two seasons. While the "Big 4" running backs are normally being drafted in the range of 20th or deeper, history indicates that two of them have an excellent shot at ending in the Top 12. The last two years has obscured the typical optimism that rookie runners have historically brought to fantasy drafts, even though this year had three taken in the first five picks - an all-time NFL record.

The table to the right shows the year end ranking for each of the listed players and is sorted in a manner to suggest the most reliable "repeaters" in fantasy drafts over the last five years. Until last year, Ahman Green was money in the bank and over the last four seasons, Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander are in a class of their own for consistently repeating great seasons. Barber comes off a career best year and his reality is that in almost every draft in the last five years he has been taken well below his eventual value.

Top 12
Running Back Repeatability
50% - 33%

While 2003 had nine palyers return to the Top 12, 2004 went back to the standard number - 6 of 12. When you remove Tomlinson, Holmes and Alexander from the equation, it really stands at 33% (3 of 9). That's not a very high number for how coveted running backs are in drafts though the reality is that you'll need two and maybe three as starters compared to the standard one for quarterback. Those backs in the top 12 are perhaps the main difference makers for fantasy teams because no position has the steep decline in total points that running backs do. And yet, the run continues on and on well after the first dozen are drafted.