FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability - Tight Ends
David Dorey
July 22, 2005

Repeatability, if it exists at all, is critical for tight ends because simply enough there are never more than a dozen of them with any real fantasy significance. Look at the numbers from every season - it is only the top six that really matter and have any appreciable "per game" difference from the rest.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. For tight ends, that entails 1/10 yardage points and six point touchdowns.

	2000	Pts	2001	Pts	2002	Pts	2003	Pts	2004	Pts
1	T Gonzalez	167	T Gonzalez	124	T Heap	120	T Gonzalez	144	A Gates	169
2	S Sharpe	105	M Pollard	117	T Gonzalez	111	S Sharpe	119	T Gonzalez	161
3	F Jones	100	S Sharpe	86	J Shockey	94	T Heap	90	J Witten	128
4	K Brady	87	D Clark	86	S Sharpe	82	B Williams	68	A Crumpler	106
5	C Lewis	86	F Wycheck	83	B Franks	82	M Pollard	67	R McMichael	97
6	F Wycheck	85	B Chamberlain	79	M Pollard	77	A Crumpler	67	J Shockey	97

7	K Dilger	64	B Franks	79	B Miller	73	I Mili	66	J Wiggins	87
8	J Riemersma	62	D Sloan	78	A Crumpler	68	R McMichael	64	E Johnson	86
9	D Carswell	61	W Walls	70	R McMichael	67	F Jones	64	D Graham	74
10	M Pollard	58	E Conwell	70	K Brady	65	J Shockey	62	B Franks	70
11	J Harris	56	C Lewis	70	C Fauria	62	D Graham	59	D Clark	66
12	S Alexander	53	J Riemersma	69	E Conwell	59	J Kleinsasser	58	L Smith	64

13	R Dudley	52	F Jones	58	I Mili	58	A Becht	58	C Cooley	63
14	W Walls	50	A Becht	56	C Lewis	56	E Kinney	50	J Putzier	63
15	A Glover	46	D Carswell	52	S Alexander	52	D Clark	48	M Pollard	61
16	D Clark	46	E Johnson	51	A Becht	50	M Ricks	48	S Heiden	56
17	D Sloan	45	D Moore	47	D Jolley	48	B Miller	47	K Dilger	48
18	I Mili	44	A Crumpler	45	M Ricks	43	B Franks	47	J Stevens	48
19	R Kelly	41	K Brady	42	W Walls	42	A Gates	46	M Campbell	47
20	D Moore	41	K Dilger	41	J Kleinsasser	42	J Weaver	41	F Jones	47
21	G Clark	41	R Williams	41	F Wycheck	41	M Schobel	40	T Heap	45
22	B Franks	38	C Cleeland	35	K Dilger	39	E Conwell	37	K Mangum	45
23	A Shea	36	E Williams	34	J Stevens	38	D Clark	36	A Shea	43
24	J Thomason	32	J Wiggins	33	F Jones	36	J Witten	35	B Williams	42
The Following season:			Remained Top 6		Became 7-12		Became 13-24		Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	3	3	3	3	4	2
7 to 12	0	0	1	0	1	0
13 - 24	2	3	1	1	1	2
Duds	1	0	1	2	0	2
7 to 12 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	1	0	1	1	1	2
7 to 12	1	3	1	0	1	1
13 - 24	1	0	2	2	2	1
Duds	3	3	2	3	2	2
Top 6 was:	Avg.	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Top 6	2	3	2	3	3	2
7 to 12	3	0	2	1	1	2
13 - 24	0	1	1	0	0	2
24+	1	2	0	2	2	0

Each season has seen typically two or three tight ends rule the position with a handful more only moderately important. The rest are meaningless in fantasy terms. Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the two top dogs for several years and since Sharpe retired, a replacement was needed. Enter Antonio Gates who outscored Sharpe's career best season. Gates who scored more touchdowns than anyone in the position had ever. Last year was different too in that there were other tight ends of note - Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler, Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey chimed in and gave us the highest scoring Top 6 in the history of the NFL.

This season should be interesting for repeats. In the past, the Top 12 each year only gave up five or six players to the next season's best dozen players. We've never had such a strong crew entering a next season though. In the last five years, only twice has the Top 6 given up more than three players to repeat the next year and last year was actually the worst season for that with only Gonzalez and Crumpler remaining in the highest tier.

Looking backwards, it is still only the top 6 that contributes heavily to the next season simply because they are already the few tight ends that have dominant receiving roles for their team. There is just not a lot of variation that happens in this position.

	Repeat Reliability	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1	Gonzalez, T	1	1	2	1	2
2	Pollard, M	10	2	6	5	15
3	Sharpe, S	2	3	4	2
4	Jones, F	3	13	24	9	17
5	Crumpler, A		18	8	6	4
6	Franks, B	22	7	5	18	10
7	Shockey, J			3	10	6
8	McMichael, R			9	8	5
9	Brady, K	4	19	10
10	Heap, T			1	3	23
11	Clark, D				23	11
12	Dilger, K	7	20	22		18
13	Lewis, C	5	11	14		24
14	Mili, I	18		13	7
15	Conwell, E		10	12	22
16	Gates, A				19	1
17	Graham, D				11	9
18	Johnson, E		16			7
19	Miller, B			7	17
20	Williams, B				4	22
21	Witten, J				24	3
22	Kleinsasser, J			20	12
23	Wiggins, J		24			8
24	Fauria, C			11
25	Ricks, M			18	16
26	Putzier, J					12
27	Cooley, C					13
28	Kinney, E				14
Finishes that were 25th or deeper each year were not listed.

The table to the right shows the year end ranking for each of the listed players and is sorted in a manner to suggest the most reliable "repeaters" in fantasy drafts over the last five years. It's obvious that Gonzalez is in a class of his own and in the last five seasons, has been the best "repeater" in the entire league across any position. The shakeup last year of the Top 12 introduced several new players and this year will show how well defenses will adjust against them.

Tight End Repeatability
50% - 17%

For tight ends, the top 6 are all that really matter and of that group, almost exactly three repeat each season. When you remove Gonzalez, the retired Sharpe and the aging and displaced Pollard, recent history shows that no tight end repeats in the Top 6 other than Crumpler once. It doesn't really matter in this position though - you can be certain that the top dozen from last year and highly likely to remain Top 12 and perhaps half of them shift forward or backwards from their tiers of six players because the others simply do not get enough passes to make any real leap. Players that are new to the Top 12 are far more likely to be ones that have never been there before like Troupe, Watson or Teyo Johnson. It almost has to be someone that will be new to the offensive scheme and featured in a way that he has never been used before.