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FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability- Wide Receivers
David Dorey
July 21, 2005

Wide receivers are commonly considered to be among the least likely to repeat and for a good reason - every NFL team uses at least two or three in their scheme if not more. From a sheer volume of players standpoint, repeating would be challenging. As the analysis will show - that's pretty correct for the most part.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. Receivers were scored at 1/10 yardage and six point touchdowns.

	2000	Pts	2001	Pts	2002	Pts	2003	Pts	2004	Pts
1	R Moss	228	M Harrison	233	M Harrison	234	R Moss	261	M Muhammad	229
2	T Owens	219	T Owens	233	H Ward	218	T Holt	237	J Horn	203
3	R Smith	218	D Boston	205	T Owens	217	C Johnson	187	J Walker	203
4	M Harrison	217	R Smith	199	E Moulds	182	A Boldin	182	T Owens	198
5	D Alexander	195	R Moss	179	R Moss	177	M Harrison	181	M Harrison	194
6	T Holt	194	J Smith	178	A Toomer	176	H Ward	176	T Holt	192

7	I Bruce	193	J Horn	174	P Price	172	S Moss	172	D Bennett	188
8	E McCaffrey	181	T Holt	170	J Horn	169	D Mason	169	R Wayne	185
9	J Horn	176	T Brown	166	P Burress	169	D Jackson	161	C Johnson	177
10	C Carter	173	D Mason	162	D Driver	161	C Chambers	159	D Driver	170
11	T Brown	172	J Rice	160	J Rice	159	K McCardell	158	B Stokley	161
12	J Smith	163	C Conway	158	L Coles	156	T Owens	158	D Jackson	158

13	E Moulds	158	K Johnson	158	K Robinson	152	L Coles	153	I Bruce	157
14	A Toomer	158	T Brown	151	M Booker	151	J Horn	152	M Clayton	157
15	D Boston	151	M Booker	150	T Holt	148	S Smith	148	N Burleson	156
16	M Muhammad	147	D Jackson	149	I Bruce	145	P Warrick	135	E Kennison	154
17	K McCardell	143	K McCardell	142	C Johnson	142	A Toomer	130	D Mason	152
18	A Freeman	139	Q Ismail	141	J Smith	141	D Boston	127	R Smith	152
19	W Chrebet	133	B Schroeder	141	R Gardner	141	I Bruce	126	R Moss	151
20	K Johnson	129	I Bruce	140	Q Morgan	137	J Walker	119	J Porter	147
21	T Glenn	127	J Morton	135	K Johnson	136	R Wayne	119	A Lelie	145
22	I Hilliard	122	L Coles	135	C Conway	128	J McCareins	118	A Johnson	144
23	T Brown	118	P Price	134	R Smith	126	A Johnson	114	J Smith	144
24	B Schroeder	117	J Thrash	130	J Galloway	125	E Kennison	110	L Evans	140
The Following season:			Remained Top 6		Became 7-12		Became 13-24		Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	3	2	4	3	3	2
7 to 12	1	3	1	0	0	1
13 - 24	1	0	0	2	1	1
Duds	1	1	1	1	2	2
7 to 12 became	Avg.	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Top 6	0	0	1	0	0	1
7 to 12	1	1	2	2	0	0
13 - 24	2	1	1	2	3	2
Duds	3	4	2	2	3	3
Top 12 was:	Avg.	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Top 6	3	2	5	3	4	3
7 to 12	2	4	3	2	0	0
13 - 24	2	1	1	4	2	2
24+	4	5	3	3	6	7

Those Top 6 each season are true difference makers and quite often reside on the rosters of the league champion. There's just a tremendous advantage to having high scoring receivers when so many are grouped in the middle. From the numbers, there are usually half of the players that return to the Top 6 the next season - one of the highest in any position.

The 7 to 12 range, quite on the other hand, has been one of the most unproductive areas since on the average season 5 of the 6 players will drop from the previous season. That's something to remember and a reason to grab either a top 6 wideout or wait a bit for the next tier.

Looking backwards, The Top 12 comes from all over. More players come from the 24+ range than any of the other three higher tiers from the previous season. In particular, the last two years has witnessed an unprecedented amount of "sleepers" turning in great years that well exceeded expectations. Quite often they were born of some particular team situation that game them a much higher volume of passes than the offense would typically allow. Think Muhsin Muhammad for the most extreme example. Just as notable is that no wideout from the 7 to 12 range over the last two seasons has returned to the Top 12 the next year.

	Repeat Reliability	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1	M Harrison	4	1	1	4	5
2	R Moss	1	5	5	1	19
3	T Owens	2	2	3	11	4
4	T Holt	6	8	15	2	6
5	J Horn	9	7	8	13	3
6	I Bruce	7	20	16	18	13
7	J Smith	12	6	18	24	20
8	R Smith	3	4	23		15
9	A Toomer	14		6	16
10	M Muhammad	16				1
11	C Johnson			17	3	9
12	H Ward			2	6
13	D Boston	15	3		17
14	D Mason		10		9	17
15	D Jackson		16		8	14
16	E Moulds	13		4
17	K McCardell	17	17		10
18	D Driver			10		10
19	K Johnson	20	13	21
20	L Coles		22	12	14
21	R Wayne				19	7
22	J Walker					2
23	M Booker		15	14
24	A Boldin				5
25	P Price		23	7
26	P Burress			9	23
24	S Moss				7
28	D Bennett					8
29	K Robinson			13	22
Finishes that were 25th or deeper each year were not listed.

There is no big shock here really. Harrison, Owens, Moss, Holt and Horn have been the kings of repeating and there is almost no other wideouts worth even considering. This listing is truly amazing because outside of those top five repeaters, it shows objectively that the fortunes of wideouts vary dramatically from season to season. Other than Hines Ward, Chad Johnson and the 2000-2001 version of Rod Smith, no wideout in the NFL (beyond the five kings of repeating) has managed to turn in two consecutive seasons of Top 12 performances. None. Almost hard to believe - and apparently a near guarantee for this year.

Top 12
Wide Receiver Repeatability
42% - 0%

Though the names change frequently at the top, the receivers still ended up with the previous Top 12 yielding 5 of the next Top 12. But the reality here is that if you remove Harrison, Owens, Moss, Holt and Horn from the equation, the chance that a Top 12 receiver repeats to the Top 12 the following year is almost zero. There were only two players (Ward and Rod Smith) that have managed to do that once in the last five years. The reality is that you do need two or three receivers for starters so there is no sense in waiting too long, but the chance you will get a truly difference making receiver after the top six are taken is actually negligible.