FANTASY FOOTBALL PRE-SEASON FEATURES

For the entire 2004 season, Tomlinson was hampered by a lingering groin strain that reduced some of his effectiveness though he played with the injury. He produced only a 3.9 yard per carry average but still managed to have a career best 17 rushing scores. Tomlinson ended the year 5th in receiving yards (441), 7th in rushing yards (1335), 2nd in total touchdowns (18) and 6th in total yardage (1776). Not bad for missing one game and playing at less than 100%.

In the last three seasons, Tomlinson has never scored less than 16 touchdowns a year nor fallen below 1700 total yards (twice he topped 2000 yards). He is one of the most talented backs in the league and one that has provided consistency and durability (of sorts) every season. Even with a groin strain he does not have a ?down? year compared to the rest of the league.

At the age of 26 and with four solid seasons behind him, Tomlinson is in his absolute prime and now plays in an offense that has a threat of passing to concern the defenses that previously would simply load up every available defender against #21. He comes with a guarantee of top production, almost no risk for injury and, most incredibly, with upside still left to fulfill. He and Shaun Alexander are quite similar in many ways and thanks to their respective levels of production and consistency, both should go as the first two picks in a fantasy draft with order only predicated on personal preference. LaDainian is simply as good as it gets for running backs and should be better this year.

After sitting on the bench for a season and then starting for the last four years, Alexander has become unquestionably one of the elite backs in the NFL with a level of consistency, productivity and durability rivaled only by LaDainian Tomlinson. Over the last four seasons, he has gained at least 14 touchdowns and ran for at least 1175 yards. His 1696 rushing yards of 2004 was a career best and second only to Curtis Martin (nine yards back, a point of sticky contention no doubt).

Alexander is not a huge part of the passing game though he manages to score at least twice a year via the pass. Since Ricky Watters went down to injury back in 2001, it?s been all Alexander, all the time. His 20 total touchdowns last year was tops for any non-quarterback in the NFL for 2004. He?s not just a fantasy goldmine; he is 28 years old and in the middle of his prime.

The only real question to the 2005 fantasy draft is if Tomlinson or Alexander deserves to be the first player selected. Even a down year from Alexander guarantees top ten if not top five numbers on the season. Young, durable and now even more motivated as a franchise player, Alexander?s outlook this season could not be brighter.

As long as James stays healthy, he?s a lock to remain one of the most productive tailbacks in the league. He?s never rushed for less than 1500 yards in any of the three 16 games seasons he played. 2004 was one of those years with 1548 rushing yards added to 483 receiving yards for a total of 9 scores. It seems low in points only on a team like Indianapolis. There were over 20 NFL teams last year that could only dream of that much scoring from a running back.

James is consistent and highly productive. He ranked second only to Tiki Barber in total yards last season (2031) and he ended fourth in rushing yards and fourth in receiving yards. With Manning tossing touchdowns like they were free t-shirts for the crowd, no defense can think about loading up against the run. Many tackles on James end up to be defenders running back to cut him off.

With such a level of consistency, production and relatively no risk other than injury, James is a reasonable and natural selection as one of the first backs off the boards every summer. He?s in a one-year contract as of this printing as the franchise player and still has something to prove for next year.

(-Risk) Holmes ended the season as the third best scoring running back in the NFL. That?s impressive since he only played exactly half a season. Had he merely doubled his totals from the first half (and it was entirely possible with that schedule), he would have ended with 30 touchdowns and 2158 yards. Bit of a record there had it happened.

Of course ? it didn?t. Holmes went down with a partial tear in his MCL and after two weeks he was placed on injured reserve. Holmes has only played seven seasons in the NFL really and only four as a starter. While that?s not much wear and tear, he does turn 32 years of age in October and in the demanding position of tailback, injuries happen and recuperation time never gets shorter as they age.

Holmes has been rehabbing his knee at home and the word is that he will be fine for training camp and that he has permission to remain out of mini-camps and heal up. HC Dick Vermeil has stated repeatedly that he expects Holmes to be ready for camp and will be good to go. The fact that Holmes easily out produces all other running backs means no matter the risk, he has to be drafted early. Where that happens is an individual choice weighing reward against risk.

Consider too that Holmes is not only older and returning from a knee injury, but that the KC schedule is much tougher this season and as of this printing, OT Will Shields is considering retirement. If he plays the whole season, there?s no reason not to expect he won?t remain the best. The whole issue is that word ? ?if?.

In only two seasons, Davis has gone from the injured rookie no one saw in training camp to being one of the top fantasy running backs in the NFL. The reason is not hard to figure. Davis is not dramatically gifted at gaining yards he just gets so many opportunities that by sheer volume he ranks highly. He participated in 385 plays last year that were either runs or passes to him which ranked 8th in the NFL for 2004 running backs. Had he not missed a game his average would have seen him challenge for the top spot only 33 plays away (Tomlinson).

Davis is a fantasy goldmine with his role in the passing game. His 596 receiving yards were second only to Brian Westbrook last year and only four other runners managed more than his 14 touchdowns. There were games last season that literally saw Davis take every offensive play in a series.

Davis is prone to getting nicked up ? he had a bruised thigh and sprained ankle last season but managed to only miss one game. While there seems to be a risk that he is being used too much, the reality is that Houston has added no new offensive weapons and there is no reason to expect that Davis will see any different role. For the most of 2004, he was the only consistently productive feature to the offense. He?s a slight injury risk but his reward well outweighed that last year and should be the case again for 2005.

McAllister came off a career-best season in 2003 and then promptly suffered a high ankle sprain against the 49ers in week two that robbed him of three games worth of production. He just barely ended with over 1000 rushing yards though his nine touchdowns were the second best of his career.

With five 100+ yard rushing efforts and six games with touchdowns in thirteen weeks played, McAllister was reasonably consistent. Don?t forget that he had nine consecutive games over 100 yards in 2003 and he tied with Priest Holmes for the most games with 100 yards or a touchdown that year (13). He is talented and his production decrease last season was mainly in regard to his injury.
McAllister is a top running back in the league because he consistently takes almost all rushes for his team and scores in at least half his games. His receiving role has decreased over the last couple of years but his volume of carries remains high.

Other than the high ankle sprain last year, he has been durable even with his heavy use ? the sprain came at the first of last year so he is not just wearing down. Expect a solid season from Deuce once again in 2005 that will produce a very good option for your team. Not a great one, not a bad one, just a solid option for your #1 tailback.

(+Upside) After sitting out 2003 and playing sparingly in the first five games of last season, McGahee took over the starting role in Buffalo and never looked back. He ended with 1128 yards and considering only the yardage he gained as a full time starter, he would have topped 1500 rushing yards over a full season and been a top five rusher for the year. His 13 touchdowns came in the final ten games and were bettered only by six players who all played a full season (okay ? so not Holmes).

Considering his lengthy layoff and the strength of his schedule, McGahee turned in a very impressive performance, exceeding 100 yards seven times in twelve games as the primary back.

With a stifling defense to yield good field position and a coach already enamored with him, McGahee?s future is quite bright if he can avoid further injuries. He did hyper-extend a knee last year but played through the injury. Playing in the AFC East is no cakewalk for a runner and McGahee still has to prove himself against divisional rivals but even farther away from the knee injury that robbed him of his first year, McGahee is a lock to get a ton of carries and be able to do big things with them. He can carry 30 times a game when needed and more importantly, the first hit he takes is rarely the last one.

08-15-05 Update: McGahee slips just a bit with the poor showing of J.P. Losman in the preseason opener. He's still a fine choice but with the passing game not looking very formidable yet, he carries higher risk.

After languishing in Cincinnati for seven seasons, Dillon left for the Patriots and in one season had career highs in yards and touchdowns. He also has a new ring to wear. The move ?did him good?.

His 1635 rushing yards were third best in the league last year and only four runners had more touchdowns. This considering that he missed one week with a sprained ankle. He was among the most consistent tailbacks with nine 100 yards games and nine games with touchdowns. It was everything that the Pats and Dillon both could hope for and it resulted in yet another championship.

Dillon was durable last season even with the 4th highest number of carries in the NFL. He turns 31 this season which is a minor concern but as of yet has not been a factor. The Patriots actually have a slightly easier rushing schedule than in 2004 and Dillon is primed to replicate his great performance last season. There?s little doubt that the Patriots will run him hard again this season and incredibly, he may end up even better.

You need to consider Dillon among the premier backs in the league this season because of his big role in the offense and great consistency at turning in above average games. His age may be a slight downside, but there?s upside in the schedule to balance it.

Lewis missed two games from his NFL suspension and later skipped two others thanks to a sore ankle. His pace was far from his stellar 2003 season when he gained 2064 yards and had 12 games over 100 yards. Last year he only managed the feat four times and he only carried in excess of 25 times three times all year ? he had eight such efforts the previous season.

It was a year of distractions and coming off a record-setting 2003, a down year was not unexpected. Other than his monster season, Lewis has never gained more than 1367 yards nor started a full 16 game slate. He?s a bruising runner that has almost no involvement in the passing game. Even then, he?s always stayed around 6 or 7 TD?s in a year other than 2003.

Figure Lewis to rebound after a challenging year in 2004. The Ravens rushing schedule is actually a bit lighter than normal and there is the prospect that Boller may be able to throw better this year and reduce the intensive focus that Lewis always attracts. He?s rock solid for gaining a decent game and in 2003 showed that he can do much more when the conditions are right. His lack of receiving yards and relatively lower TD totals reduce his fantasy value but he remains a viable #1 fantasy back if your first pick went to another position and a great #2 back if possible.

(+Upside) Not unlike Julius Jones, Kevin Jones looked like a bust pick for the first nine games of the season thanks in part to a high ankle sprain he suffered in the first weeks of the season. Jones only missed one game but played on a limited basis with no game more than a dozen carries. And then in week ten, the Lions started feeding him the ball more and Jones responded with an impressive yards per carry each game. He scored his first NFL touchdown in week 13 when he ran for 196 yards against Arizona and then scored in the next three consecutive games. Over the last seven weeks, Jones turned in six games over 90 yards rushing.

As it worked out, Jones enjoyed a nice stretch of games. His schedule included IND, MIN (twice), GB, CHI and TEN ? hardly the best defenses in the league last season. His production was impressive though and it did coincide with his recovery from the high ankle sprain.

This season Jones starts out healthy and ready to resume his productive ways of 2004 against a schedule that is a dream during the fantasy playoffs in most leagues: @GB, CIN and @NO. Last season those match-ups would have provided a guaranteed three great fantasy games ? all right at the time you need them most.

(+Upside) After two seasons of at least 14 scores, Portis? first year with the Redskins had to be disappointing to fantasy owners. He had five games with less than 60 yards rushing which was not supposed to happen from a runner who was promised to ?run until his tongue hung out? by HC Joe Gibbs in the preseason.

Portis was not without value however, he had eight games with over 100 total yards and seemed to turn in an equal share of down games versus big games. There was just very little middle ground to his performances of 2004. This season is shaping up for a return of Portis to the upper echelon of fantasy backs.

The Redskins? schedule is one of the best in the NFL this year and they enter the second season of the offense. The same players return other than swapping Coles for Moss but that secondary stretching difference could actually help Portis. Look for one of the fastest, most elusive backs to get back on track this year with an upgraded and healthy offensive line and the mandate to keep the defenses chasing Portis ?until their tongues are hanging out?.

08/11/05 Update: Portis drops not from any particular reason per se but just news that the offensive line still does not appear to be upgrading as much from last season as would be desired. That will likely result in the same pattern as last season - several monster games balanced by some very marginal afternoons.

(+Upside) The Cowboys had the chance to take any running back in the 2004 NFL draft and traded back. This allowed Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell to leave the board until Dallas picked up Jones in the second round. With Eddie George installed as the veteran rusher, Jones would take a slower path to stardom.

Jones suffered a broken clavicle in September and was pushed back into the shadows until week 11. There was speculation that he would be placed on injured reserve initially but he finally made it back for the Ravens game where he carried the ball 30 times for 81 very tough yards. In the matter of seven games to end the season, Jones ran for an astounding 803 yards and scored seven times. Extrapolate that to 16 games and it?s like 1835 yards and 16 scores ? well higher than the NFL leader Martin produced (1697). That production was buoyed by soft match-ups against CHI, SEA and NYG when he ran for 149 yards or more. But he faced tough defenses in WAS, PHI and Bal and still produced relatively well.

There is no way that Jones will continue with the volume of carries he had last season ? his 192 runs in seven weeks would shatter NFL records if the pace would be maintained over a full season. But he has now gained the confidence of the coaches and has more experience in the offense. If he can stay healthy, Jones should have a great 2005 providing the solid running game that Parcells craves and his only downside is if Anthony Thomas proves to be more than occasional relief.

It was the year of the veteran running back in 2004 and along with Curtis Martin, Barber was one of the NFL tailbacks that said ?I?m just getting started? last year. It was predictable that the Giants would rely on the rushing game more with a rookie quarterback to protect. It was not predictable that Barber would end up as a top five back in both rushing and receiving yardage, touchdowns, attempts and yards per carry. Barber ended 2004 with 2096 total yards ? the best in the league.

There were so many bests and firsts associated with Barber?s career year that they aren?t worth detailing. The question is if they are due to be repeated. Probably not. Consider that under Kurt Warner?s direction, Barber averaged 155 total yards and 1.3 scores per game. When Manning played, it fell to 103 yards and only 0.6 touchdowns per game. In fantasy terms, Barber was barely half as effective when Manning took over.

Certainly the Giants will improve on offense this season, but that will likely come at the expense of Barber who had 374 runs or catches last year. He?s one of the smallest starting runners and while he was durable last year, he does hit 30 years old this season as a red flag. Barber is always more valuable than where he is drafted and none so much as last year. That may finally get reversed. Coming off a career and NFL high, he?s bound to return to lower production as the new offense hits second gear.

08-05-05 Update: Barber appears even more likely to lose some carries and scores to the rookie Jacobs who is almost half again as big as Barber. While Dayne was a flop, Jacobs has every bit the look of thunder to Barber's lightning.

The Bengals were not completely sold on Rudi Johnson last season and only tendered him a one-year deal while also drafting Chris Perry as the fall-back replacement. Perry barely made it on the field the entire season thanks to injury and Johnson was so impressive that the Bengals initially franchised him in February and then signed him to a five-year contract in March.

Johnson?s 362 carries last year was second only to Curtis Martin (371) and his 1457 rushing yards ranked sixth best in the league. Johnson is almost a complete non-factor in the passing game, he only had 15 catches all season but he?s a consistent 20-carry per game runner that scores in most games. He?s also a big enough workhorse to take over a game when the score allows the Bengals to run out the clock.

Johnson is a solid back who likely doesn?t have much more upside than what he did last year but he finished as the 8th best fantasy scorer in his position and makes a consistent, solid pick for those drafting late in the first round. He?s safe in the way you want your running back to be ? consistent and productive.

(-Risk) After ten seasons in the NFL, Martin comes off a career best year that coincidentally was also an NFL best with 1697 rushing yards. His twelve scores were bettered only by his first two seasons with the Patriots and incredibly, this 32 year old runner has not missed a single game in eight years. After scoring only two times in 2003, Martin exploded in 2004.

One difference was that Martin had historically been held out of training camp duties to keep him fresh for the season. What that had led to was Martin not being up to speed and in synch when the season started. Last year he worked out with the team and trained like he wasn?t a nine year veteran with the most yardage of any active runner in the league.

His age is a natural concern but there has been nothing to suggest that Martin is slowing down. He has a tough rushing schedule but that is no different than any other year. He?s never been good for less than 1400 total yards though his touchdown totals vary wildly each season. He won?t repeat his league leading performance of 2004, but he?s a guaranteed starter for any fantasy team.

(-Risk) While Green?s 2004 performance may have disappointed some, it was because his 2003 career-best season was still fresh on their minds. The 1400 total yards and eight scores were very much like two of the past three seasons. And like those years, Green was nicked up and missed a game.

Green is a very good runner playing in an offense that typically scores well and has a passing game the defense must respect. His 1883 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2003 was an aberration ? not the start of a new era for the seven year player. The offensive scheme is well entrenched in Green Bay and all the principal players are the same. There?s not much reason to expect more than what he did in 2004 ? it was his average season.

Where Green?s fantasy stock goes up is from his consistency. For each of his ten years in Green Bay, he has produced top ten numbers for the position and as shown in 2003, he can put in a great year when the situation and schedule complies. Where his stock goes back down is the loss of both starting guards in the off-season. Expect him to approach his average of 1400 yards and eight scores but recognize his consistency is balanced by less upside this year with the changes to the offensive line.

(+Upside) After a rookie season of sharing the ball with Marshall Faulk, Jackson takes the primary role this season though with Faulk now being the reliever. Jackson only had two games last year where he was allowed 20 or more carries and he ended with well over 100 yards in each. He averaged an even five yards per carry and appeared to get better as the game wore on.

Jackson is a big back at 233 lbs. and he can move the pile when needed. He also has enough speed to break through the line and set the secondary off chasing him. With Faulk still around, Jackson won?t get the full load like a Tomlinson or Alexander would, but he should receive a big share of the rushing attempts and has a great schedule to go against. He could definitely surprise even with a supposed committee approach this season.

There is some natural downside to having Faulk still on board and it will decrease Jackson?s numbers but he should still provide some consistently good yardage in every game since his style of running is a great mismatch to the defensive formations that the Rams passing attack typically inspire. As often as the Rams like to throw, it will decrease his touchdown totals even when they near the goal line but considering his availability deeper into starting running backs in your draft, he offers great consistency with upside for a surprising year.

(+Upside) The Raiders added Jordan in the off-season as a means to improve a rushing game that was one of the worst in the NFL last season ? Amos Zereoue was the 2004 leader with only 425 yards. While the Raiders could have pursued one of the top backs in the NFL draft, they elected to swap their 1.07 pick for Randy Moss and use free agency to get their runner. Jordan was the biggest name available in a season with little movement for tailbacks. He signed a five-year agreement with Oakland for $15.8 million with a $7 million signing bonus. That?s enough to ensure all the eggs for the running game are in Jordan?s basket.

Jordan has never had more than 93 carries in any season but that will change in 2005. HC Norv Turner wants a sound running game and the last two drafts have been used to stock up on offensive linemen. What Jordan can do as the primary running back remains to be seen. He played as Curtis Martin?s back-up for the last four seasons after being drafted in the second round of the 2001 draft and while he had an impressive ?yards per carry average?, that is not unusual for a relief back.

With Collins and Porter in their second season and having added Randy Moss, the Raiders should have a passing game to respect if not fear. That will help Jordan avoid excessive attention by the defense and could allow him a nice first season in Oakland. The schedule is a tough one but the pieces are in place to let Jordan finally deliver on his promise after four long years of waiting his turn. Turner?s style is to use the powerback as a workhorse and Jordan has just the right mix of size and running style to complement the attack. Expect Jordan to likely produce better than his draft slot suggests with a great opportunity and situation.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Westbrook ended up as a top ten back in almost all fantasy leagues last year with a career best 1511 yards and nine scores. His 73 receptions were tops in the NFL for his position and he accomplished a career best season in spite of only playing in 13 games. Westbrook scored nine touchdowns but logged seven of them in a three game span mid-season

Westbrooks? value stems primarily from his role in the passing game as he easily was #1 in receiving yardage for running backs with 703 (Domanick Davis was #2 with 589). His risk is higher than most thanks to a lack of durability which showed up in 2004 with a rib fracture that actually held his numbers lower. He was held out of the final two games as a way to ensure he was not hurt again for the playoffs.

Consider Westbrook a great pick while healthy since he gains yards almost equally receiving and rushing. He?s harder to rely on for scores, but provides a solid, consistent measure of yardage. His injury risk drops him in the draft and the addition of Ryan Moats could reduce his carries. Look for Westbrook to deliver the goods again this year.

HC Jon Gruden came to the Buccaneers in 2002 and in the last three seasons, there has been no 1000 yard rusher in Tampa Bay. That possibility left when Warrick Dunn left for Atlanta that first year. The Buccaneers mixed and matched tailbacks constantly for the last three years not unlike how Gruden had done in Oakland. This year that may finally change. The Buccaneers drafted Williams with the 1.05 pick in the draft and were ecstatic to get the last available player from the ?Big 3? premier rookie runners.

Williams is a tremendous runner and has always been the type of player that just needed the ball in whatever way it took to get it in his hands. Truly a threat to score every time he touches the ball, Williams goes to a team that has muddled through various backs since Dunn left. He is slightly smaller than either Benson or Brown, but that translates into speed and moves. Think Charlie Garner ten years younger, faster and with more inside running ability.

Tampa Bay under Gruden has not allowed any runner to have more than 219 carries in any season (somewhat thanks to injuries). It is a small leap of faith to believe that any tailback there will get enough use to become a fantasy star but reason says no one uses the fifth overall pick in the draft to take a situational player. Tampa Bay faces a fairly daunting schedule this season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. That will work against Williams but opportunity combined with talent makes Cadillac an attractive option for your fantasy team.

(+Upside) The fourth back taken in the draft came with the 2.12 pick when the Cardinals were able to snap up Arrington, who may prove as productive as the three initially taken. Arrington is very quick and timed faster than those other three. He played in an offense at California that is similar to the Cardinals ? a scheme that spreads the field with multiple receivers and emphasizes the pass which allows more running room for a speedy back.

Arrington averaged 6.6 yards per carry in 2003 and he scored 15 touchdowns while topping the century mark in yardage in all twelve games. He piled up 2018 rushing yards last season and most of that came against solid defenses. His downside at least to scouts is that he is only 5?8? tall but at 214 pounds carries the same weight ratio of most prototypical backs. He?s just short enough to get lost behind the offensive line and when he hits the secondary, he becomes a major headache trying to catch. His 4.4/40 speed can out run many if not most cornerbacks in the league.

Arrington finds himself in a nice situation with little competition and a style of offense that should be best suited to his talents. Add in a lighter than most rushing schedule and chances are his name will be called too late in fantasy drafts this summer.

08-05-05 Update: Arrington gets a bump up after shining already in training camp and prompting HC Denny Green to already call his second round pick a steal. Arrington does not appear to have to worry much about Shipp or any other ball carrier for the Cardinals - this guy has been electric so far.

(+Upside) The Bears snapped up Benson with the 4th overall pick in the draft as the second tailback taken. In short, he?s a perfect fit for the new offense being installed this year by OC Ron Turner which will look for an equal balance of rushing and passing. Thomas Jones was the starter last year and is still around to make people wonder if some sharing scenario will occur. Consider this ? no one uses the fourth overall pick in the draft to select perhaps the perfect stereotypical workhorse runner to use him part-time.

Benson comes to the NFL with a lengthy resume of accomplishments from his four years with Texas where he finished up one of the top ten NCAA rushers of all time. Coming from UT and wearing dreadlocks, there was a natural comparison to Ricky Williams and there is some similarity though Benson is slightly smaller and faster than Williams was. He is a supreme athlete that is likely the least risky of any rookie runner ? and that extends back for the last four years.

There was some concern that he had too much mileage since he was wildly productive in both high school and college. Then again, it?s a whole lot less yardage than Curtis Martin has and he led the league in 2004. The Bears will feature Benson and there?s no reason to expect he will be less than a good back in the NFL and if his history holds up, he?ll be considered a great one before it is all done.

08-15-05 Update: Benson slips a few spots since he has not signed yet and is losing valuable practice time. The loss of Grossman also cannot be viewed as favorable for the offense. Benson is very talented and will be a good runner in the NFL. He has the best rushing schedule of any rookie tailback but his absence likely will have him receive more limited time in the early part of the season. Particularly considering the Bears will need a good blocker from their running backs on passing downs.

08-26-25 Update: Benson, the lone unsigned first round draft choice, appeared in Chicago Thursday, August 25th, with advisor Brian Peters for an unplanned meeting with Bears general manager Jerry Angelo. Benson wanted to speak with Angelo in person and while the meeting seemed pleasant, no negotiations took place because Benson's agent, Eugene Parker, was not present. People in the organization felt it was a positive direction for the missing running back - his first of the summer.