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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
October 19, 2005
Season Ticket
FRI 7 PM Sun 1 PM SF at WAS* Sun 4 PM Sun 4 PM
KC at MIA* NO at STL Sun 4 PM DEN at NYG TEN at ARI*
Sun 1 PM PIT at CIN* DAL at SEA* On Bye: Mon 9 PM
GB at MIN* IND at HOU BUF at OAK CAR, TB Updated*

Prediction: Kansas City 17, Miami 21

The Chiefs head to Florida already a game and a half behind the Broncos in the AFC West with dwindling room for error. The Dolphins return home where they are undefeated this season and suddenly have a new toy to play with in Ricky Williams. That a good thing too since the passing game has fallen apart. Then again, the Chiefs haven't had a passing attack for the entire season - just ask Tony Gonzalez.

Update: Samie Parker has been slowed by a sprained knee and has not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday. Since the game is tonight, I am expecting him to not play and have removed him from the projections. Moving the game up will not be a help to the Chiefs in this game either.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)
1 27-7 NYJ 10 Nov 13 @BUF
2 23-17 @OAK 11 Nov 20 @HOU
3 10-30 @DEN 12 Nov 27 NE
4 31-37 PHI 13 Dec 4 DEN
5 Open Bye 14 Dec 11 @DAL
6 28-21 WAS 15 Dec 17 @NYG
7 Oct 23 @MIA 16 Dec 24 SDC
8 Oct 30 @SDC 17 Jan 1 CIN
9 Nov 6 OAK . MON SAT
KCC at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 210,1
RB Priest Holmes 60,1 40,1 0
RB Larry Johnson 20 0 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 40 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 50 0
WR Samie Parker 0 30 0
WR Chris Horn 0 20 0
WR Dante Hall 0 20 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs have established a frustrating pattern in the last two games where they rolled up big, early leads only to see their opponent come roaring back. They managed to hold off the Redskins last week but the Eagles woke up and throttled them the entire second half. Every game is a big one when you trail in the standings but the Chiefs have a very tough stretch ahead of them. After this week, they head to San Diego, then home against Oakland followed by two more road games in Buffalo and Houston. Tough schedule to be sure that never gets easier for more than a week.

Quarterback: Trent Green has only thrown for four scores on the year and comes off a15 of 25 for 181 yard effort that was only that good thanks to a 60 yard reception by Priest Holmes that had nothing to do with the pass and everything to do with open field running. After a couple of seasons as a top passer, Green has yet to throw for more than 237 yards in a game.

Running Backs: Though he only had 18 yards on 14 carries, Priest Holmes turned a simple screen pass into a 60 yard touchdown run that gave literally almost every defender some chance to touch him. He ended as the leading receiver with 100 yards on six catches and now has five touchdowns on the season. Good to be sure, but hardly in keeping with the pace of previous seasons. Holmes has yet to top 85 rushing yards this season.

Larry Johnson was finally given some decent work when he ran 13 times for 53 yards against the Redskins but since his big season opener, he's been good for only around 8 carries a game and around 30 or so yards. He hasn't had a pass in the last three games.

Wide Receivers: Going against the tough Redskins secondary meant that Eddie Kennison went from having 109 yards and one score in week five to having no catches last Sunday. If Kennison doesn't get it done from this crew, it just does not happen. Marc Boerigter is getting a few throws per game now and Samie Parker has almost disappeared in the last two games. Dante Hall is worth about one catch per week. There has been no #2 wideout step up to take any pressure off Kennison and he's been swallowed up in the coverage because of it. It's turned into little more than cover Kennison and kill the passing game.

Tight Ends: Last week was supposed to be the renewal of Tony Gonzalez in the passing with the return of Willie Roaf and a reduced need for Gonzalez to stay in and block. Never happened. Gonzalez had eight passes thrown at him and ended with only two catches for 13 yards. He has yet to score this year and is tied with Jeb Putzier for the 18th best yardage by a tight end (142 yards).

Match Against the Defense: This will be a test. No opponent has rushed in a score in Miami this year and the best any runner has there is only 47 yards by Tatum Bell. Miami has only allowed two rushing scores in the five games this year and has stuffed every runner other than Michael Pittman in Tampa Bay last week because he ripped off a 57 yard run. The Chiefs will be bringing in a formidable game, but Holmes is not covering ground like last year and will extend his streak of mediocre yardage games. Holmes may have caught a break if Jason Taylor's foot injury is signigicant. It limited him to only playing on passing downs last week.

Trent Green has been struggling anyway and now goes against a secondary that has kept most opponents under 200 yards passing - a safe area for Green this year. This doesn't look like a good venue for Gonzo to get it together either with a good set of linebackers to cover him and against a team that has never allowed any tight end to score. Kennison draws the rookie CB Travis Daniels but he'll be getting plenty of help because when the Chiefs pass - there is no other receiver to be worried about. Look for a moderate game here from the passing that will throw for a score but that likely favors a running back as much as any other position.


Miami Dolphins (2-3)
1 34-10 DEN 10 Nov 13 NE
2 7-17 @NYJ 11 Nov 20 @CLE
3 27-24 CAR 12 Nov 27 @OAK
4 Open Bye 13 Dec 4 BUF
5 14-20 @BUF 14 Dec 11 @SDC
6 13-27 @TBB 15 Dec 18 NYJ
7 Oct 23 KCC 16 Dec 24 TEN
8 Oct 30 @NOR 17 Jan 1 @NE
9 Nov 6 ATL . . SAT
MIA vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Gus Frerotte 0 0 230,2
RB Ronnie Brown 50,1 10 0
RB Ricky Williams 20 20 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 40,1 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 70,1 0
WR Marty Booker 0 30 0
WR Wes Welker 0 40 0
WR David Boston 0 20 0
PK Olindo Mare 0 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Fins return home after dropping their last game to the Buccaneers and so far it has been an easy equation. On the road = loss. At home = win. The Dolphins have battled errors and turnovers on the road but play a better game when they can just drive to work. This week is the lightest matchup they've had this season so far and the home streak should continue - as long as Frerotte doesn't continue to have turnover issues.

Quarterback: Last week Gus Frerotte lost two fumbles and one was returned for a touchdown. He had three interceptions in Buffalo the week before that. The Buccaneers game was also the first time that he failed to throw at least one touchdown though that could be attributed to the Bucs being the first team to actually cover Randy McMichael in the endzone. Frerotte has not gotten better in the new offense as the season progresses but he's faced a string of top defenses.

Running Backs: Ricky Williams is back and last week that only meant five carries for eight yards and six catches for 22 yards against a very tough Tampa Bay defense. Ronnie Brown only has 22 yards on nine carries though he scored once. The intention of HC Nick Saban is to use the duo in the backfield and on Sunday both lined up on a few plays and traded off on the others. It is still a work in progress to be sure and until the coaching staff feels comfortable, their roles could be shifting from week to week. Facing the Chiefs won't be a big help more than likely.

Wide Receivers: The Dolphins are getting almost nothing from Marty Booker this season and he ended the game last week with only one catch for 12 yards. He's only managed one game above 21 yards since week two. Chris Chambers is the only consistency with this unit but he only has one score on the season. At least he usually gets at least 50 yards a week though he is still waiting on his first 100 yard game this year. Wes Welker had 97 yards on three catches last week but that is roughly the same as he totaled in the first four games.

Tight Ends: After scoring in each of the first four games this year, Randy McMichael finally faced a Buccaneers defense that could stop him and he ended with only three catches for 20 yards and no score. His four touchdowns still leads the NFL for tight ends.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs have been good against the run this year, sadly, and that is further complicated by the changing situation in the backfield now that Ricky Williams is back. There's a shot at a running score that would favor Ronnie Brown but his yardage would likely have been only moderate without Williams there. With Ricky sharing some amount of time and carries, neither player looks to be that productive this Sunday.

Frerotte goes against a defense that has most recently yielded back to back 330+ yard, three touchdown games though that won't happen here. Frerotte will throw for at least one score that strongly favors McMichael since the Chiefs have already allowed four different tight ends to score. Gus should produce only moderate yardage though since the offense is not clicking well enough to post big numbers and both teams will be primarily rushing anyway which reduces the number of plays in the game.