fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    


Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
November 30,, 2005
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
BUF at MIA* HOU at BAL TEN at IND* DEN at KC Mon 9 PM
CIN at PIT JAC at CLE* Sun 4 PM NYJ at NE SEA at PHI
DAL at NYG MIN at DET* ARI at SF* Updated* Times ET

Prediction: Buffalo 10, Miami 24

The fact that both teams are 4-7 and still alive in the divisional title race only says how bad the AFC East has become this season. The Bills already beat the Dolphins 20-14 back in week five of this season but they bring an 0-5 road record to Miami where the Dolphins have dropped their last three home games. By week 13, both of these teams are starting to think about next year.

Update: Marty Booker has a calf injury and has not practiced this week. He is expected to miss this game and Bryan Gilmore will take his place.

Buffalo Bills (4-7)
1 22-7 HOU 10 14-3 KCC
2 3-19 @TBB 11 10-48 @SDC
3 16-24 ATL 12 9-13 CAR
4 7-19 @NOR 13 Dec 4 @MIA
5 20-14 MIA 14 Dec 11 NE
6 27-17 NYJ 15 Dec 17 DEN
7 17-38 @OAK 16 Dec 24 @CIN
8 16-21 @NE 17 Jan 1 @NYJ
9 Open Bye . . SAT
BUF Projections Rush Catch Pass
QB J.P. Losman 0 0 150
RB Willis McGahee 70,1 10 0
TE Tim Euhus 0 10 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 50 0
WR Lee Evans 0 60 0
WR Josh Reed 0 20 0
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bills have lost their last two games and four of their last five match-ups. The offense has not scored more than 17 points in any road game this season and has been producing declining points for the last five games - pretty sad when they started out with only 17 points to begin with.

Quarterback: J.P. Losman has taken the last two starts and produced one touchdown against two interceptions with no game over 200 yards. This is training time for Losman since the Bills need to see what they have for next year. Holcomb threw for 169 yards and one score against the Dolphins in week five this season.

Running Backs: Willis McGahee ran for 86 yards and one score when the Dolphins came to town back in week five and that provedto be a season high. He's only managed a high of 66 yards in each of the last three games and has not scored since week six. When Losman starts and the Bills are on the road, McGahee's numbers have only been getting worse.

Wide Receivers: With Losman under center, Eric Moulds has been maintaining a moderate role as the possession receiver and he did manage 84 yards last week but his three touchdowns this season were all thrown by Holcomb. Lee Evans had his two score game in week ten to give hope that he was going to turn in some decent numbers to finish out the season but he's only managed about 50 yards in the two games since without a score.

Lee Evans had three catches for 65 yards and Moulds had 59 yards and one score against Miami earlier this season.

Tight Ends: Mark Campbell only had 15 yards against the Dolphins back in week five. He's out injured now and Tim Euhus is starting.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills are in "next year" mode already and have not won on the road all season. The Dolphins were dinged for 86 yards by McGahee in the last meeting and that likely is a ceiling for what to expect from him. The Dolphins often allow a rushing score so McGahee could notch one trip to the endzone here.

Miami Dolphins (4-7)
1 34-10 DEN 10 16-23 NE
2 7-17 @NYJ 11 0-22 @CLE
3 27-24 CAR 12 33-21 @OAK
4 Open Bye 13 Dec 4 BUF
5 14-20 @BUF 14 Dec 11 @SDC
6 13-27 @TBB 15 Dec 18 NYJ
7 20-30 KCC 16 Dec 24 TEN
8 21-6 @NOR 17 Jan 1 @NE
9 10-17 ATL . . SAT
MIA vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Gus Frerotte 0 0 180,1
RB Ronnie Brown 60,1 10 0
RB Ricky Williams 80,1 20 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 40,1 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 60 0
WR Bryan Gilmore 0 30 0
WR Wes Welker 0 10 0
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins took a surprising win over the Raiders in Oakland last week which came on the heels of being shut out in Cleveland - there's consistency for you. Back at home this week, they should more resemble last week than the fiasco in Cleveland and a win here still gives them some mathematical hope that they could actually win the division.

Quarterback: Gus Frerotte threw for 226 yards and two scores against the Bills in the previous meeting and he does come off a 261 yard, two score game in Oakland but he's on this very odd trend for the last seven games where he stinks in odd-numbered weeks (no scores and not more than 125 yards in the last three such games) and then shining in even-numbered games (five touchdowns and never less than 260 passing yards in the last four such weeks). This is an odd-numbered week but he's already done fairly well against the Bills, so maybe he can finally string two decent games together.

Running Backs: The general consensus is that Ronnie Brown has hit the rookie wall since in college his season would be over by now. Brown has not run for more than 67 yards in any of the last four games while Ricky Williams is getting even carries with Brown and doing more with them. Expect that Williams continues to look better than Brown but since they split time, neither have big games anymore. Last week Brown ran 15 times for 58 yards while Williams turned 16 carries into 82 yards.

Ronnie Brown ran for 97 yards on 17 carries in Buffalo this season while Williams was still not playing.

Wide Receivers: Chris Chambers had 60 yards and Marty Booker turned in 72 yards against the Bills this season but Booker comes off a game without a catch. Chambers had 101 yards last week and his numbers reflect the same phenomena as Frerotte - in even numbered games he does well and he rarely does much in odd-numbered weeks. The more important fact is that if any wideout does much, it is almost always Chambers even when the others are not catching anything like last week.

Tight Ends: After not scoring since week five, Randy McMichael finally made it back to the endzone again last week when he had a season high seven catches for 81 yards. This came one week after his only game without a catch this season. McMichael had just one catch for 30 yards against the Bills in week five but it was a touchdown and his most recent until last week.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills have been soft against the run, particularly during road games and the duo in Miami should both provide decent fantasy points this week. Look for moderate numbers from each with a chance for a big game if either can break a long run.

Frerotte is on an "off week" for what that matters and he has a stronger running game now than he did in week five. Look for him to dip back down in production since the rushing game should take center stage here but he'll have a shot at one score that would favor McMichael the most. The Bills have allowed five passing scores to both wideouts and tight ends this year.