fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    


Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
November 30,, 2005
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
BUF at MIA* HOU at BAL TEN at IND* DEN at KC Mon 9 PM
CIN at PIT JAC at CLE* Sun 4 PM NYJ at NE SEA at PHI
DAL at NYG MIN at DET* ARI at SF* Updated* Times ET

Prediction: Denver 24, Kansas City 20

The Broncos already have a two game lead over the Chiefs and Chargers this season and have beaten both teams already, so a win here gets rid of the Chiefs as a threat and likely grants the Broncos with a chance to make the week 17 match-up against the Chargers as meaningless unless there are homefield implications for the playoffs. Denver won 30-10 when they hosted the Chiefs in week three this year. Only one problem here - the Chiefs are 4-1 at home this season.

Denver Broncos (9-2)
1 10-34 @MIA 10 31-17 @OAK
2 20-17 SDC 11 27-0 NYJ
3 30-10 KCC 12 24-21 @DAL
4 20-7 @JAC 13 Dec 4 @KCC
5 21-19 WAS 14 Dec 11 BAL
6 28-20 NE 15 Dec 17 @BUF
7 23-24 @NYG 16 Dec 24 OAK
8 49-21 PHI 17 Dec 31 @SDC
9 Open Bye M THU SAT
DEN at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Plummer 20,1 0 250,2
RB Mike Anderson 70 0 0
RB Tatum Bell 40 20 0
TE Jeb Putzier 0 30,1 0
WR Rod Smith 0 90,1 0
WR Ashley Lelie 0 50 0
WR Charlie Adams 0 20 0
PK Jason Elam 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Denver may have had some good luck in the win last week but there is no denying that this team is as good as any in the NFL other than the Colts. Both losses were on the road but week one never really counts and the only other loss on the season was a one pointer in New York when the Giants mounted a comeback. The Broncos have already dispatched the Chiefs handily this season and have been preparing since last Friday for this game.

Quarterback: Jake Plummer finally threw an interception after playing eight straight games without a pick-off. He only managed 162 yards and one score in Dallas last week but this offense relies first on the run and second on the pass. Plummer only had 152 yards and one score against the Chiefs this year thanks to that successful rushing game. Plummer also had his only rushing score of the year in the previous meeting with the Chiefs.

Running Backs: As if the Denver backfield wasn't already hard to decipher, Ron Dayne became the man last week when he gained 98 yards on only seven carries and scored once against the Cowboys. His long run in overtime set-up the game winning field goal and that all came against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. There is no guarantee that his performance will result in any playing time this week since Tatum Bell is expected to return from a bruised chest. Then again, there are never any guarantees from the Denver backfield anyway.

Mike Anderson ran for 98 yards and one score when the Chiefs visited in week three this season. Bell gained 47 yards on only five carries.

Wide Receivers: Rod Smith had his standard game last week when he caught five passes for 57 yards and one score. That makes four of the last five games by Smith ending up with between 50 and 57 receiving yards. Ashley Lelie had been chugging along with around 80 yards in each of the last five games but his bad match-up in Dallas with Terrence Newman had him end with no catches on only four passes. The only wideout of note in the last game against the Chiefs was Rod Smith who had 80 yards and the lone passing score.

Tight Ends: Jeb Putzier comes off his best game of the year when he had 69 yards last Thursday. Putzier is always good for at least 20 yards per game and still has not scored a touchdown this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Chiefs rushing defense gave up over 150 yards to Bell and Anderson in the previous match-up but in Kansas City no team has had more than 93 rushing yards and there's only been one rushing score allowed this year. Expect the duo to turn in only about 100 yards this week as the passing game must move the ball more than the last game.

The Kansas City secondary is the weak link in most games and has allowed three 300+ yard games this year and in each of those games the opponent had three passing scores as well. Look for a very nice game here from Plummer who should challenge for around 250 yards and throw at least two scores that will definitely favor Rod Smith at least once. If Putzier could score a touchdown this season, this would be the most likely game for it to happen.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
1 27-7 NYJ 10 3-14 @BUF
2 23-17 @OAK 11 45-17 @HOU
3 10-30 @DEN 12 26-16 NE
4 31-37 PHI 13 Dec 4 DEN
5 Open Bye 14 Dec 11 @DAL
6 28-21 WAS 15 Dec 17 @NYG
7 30-20 @MIA 16 Dec 24 SDC
8 20-28 @SDC 17 Jan 1 CIN
9 27-23 OAK . MON SAT
KCC vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 220,1
RB Larry Johnson 80,1 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 50,1 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 50 0
WR Samie Parker 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs have a nice 7-4 record but that doesn't include wins over any top teams. They have been beaten by the Broncos, Eagles, Chargers and even the Bills this season. The offense has been on fire the last two weeks with games against two of the worst defenses in the league but they only managed 10 points against Denver in the previous match-up.

Quarterback: Trent Green has turned in several big games this year when facing bad secondaries but he had about his average when he threw for 221 yards and one score against the Broncos in Denver. Green either has a monster game or he ends up at 230 or less yards each week.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson has been outstanding since Holmes left, gaining over 100 yards in each of the last four games and scoring six touchdowns in that time. Holmes and Johnson combined for 118 yards and one score in Denver this year, so Johnson should continue to shine this week even if the rest of the team doesn't.

Wide Receivers: While Green has had success with several wideouts lately, that has been more due to facing terrible secondaries. Samie Parker (76 yards) and Dante Hall (66 yards, 1 TD) both come off season high games when the Patriots visited last week but Hall only had 18 yards and Parker just 21 yards in the previous match-up with Denver. Eddie Kennison caught eight passes for 112 yards in that game and most of that came in trash time during the blowout loss.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez still only has one touchdown this season but he had 63 yards last week and has remained at least that effective in the last six games. Gonzalez only had 29 yards in the game in Denver this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Broncos have been great against the run this year but the Chiefs will use Johnson enough to ensure that he has a decent fantasy game. Look for him to challenge the 100 yard mark despite playing against the Broncos because he no longer shares the ball and will get virtually all the carries. He has a decent chance of one score but not likely two since only Tomlinson managed that feat against Denver.

Green had only 221 yards and one score in the last meeting and that was in a game that the Chiefs trailed badly and needed to throw. Expecting anything more than his average game here is likely unrealistic. The Broncos can be beaten via the pass but the Chiefs do not have the wideouts to produce good games since Kennison is back to lining up across from Champ Bailey.