fantasy football     JOIN THE HUDDLE    


Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
The Huddle
December 21, 2005
Season Ticket
Sat 1 PM Sat 1 PM Sat 1 PM Sat 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
BUF at CIN NYG at WAS TEN at MIA* IND at SEA* Mon 9 PM
DET at NO* SD at KC* CHI at GB Updated* Times ET

Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Houston 13

The Jaguars won 21-14 when the Texans came to Jacksonville in week nine. The Jaguars are only one win away from locking down a wildcard (if they do not already have it) and the Texans come off a win that only makes their draft pick in April now in question.

Update: Greg Jones has been held out of practice with a sprained neck and he has been sowngraded from probable to questionable. I am reducing his numbers and there is an obvious chance that he will be limited even if he plays. Domanick Davis has yet to practice this week with his swollen knee still an issue. I am not adding him in and it appears likely he will miss this week as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
1 26-14 SEA 10 30-3 BAL
2 3-10 @IND 11 31-28 @TEN
3 26-20 @NYJ 12 24-17 @ARI
4 7-20 DEN 13 20-14 @CLE
5 23-20 CIN 14 18-26 IND
6 23-17 @PIT 15 10-9 SFO
7 Open Bye 16 Dec 24 @HOU
8 21-24 @STL 17 Jan 1 TEN
9 21-14 HOU . . SAT
JAX at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 40,1 0 200,1
RB Fred Taylor 60 10 0
RB Greg Jones 30 10 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 10 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 80,1 0
WR Reggie Williams 0 30 0
WR Ernest Wilford 0 40 0
WR Matt Jones 0 20 0
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars without Leftwich are not nearly as good on offense, but the defense is plenty good enough to win games against bad teams. The 49ers put up a fight last week but the Jaguars pulled out the one point win. The only saving grace to for the Jags since Leftwich departed is that they have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Quarterback: David Garrard has been no great friend to the passing game but he's now scored three rushing touchdowns in the last four games and he remains above 200 passing yards in games against bad secondaries.

Leftwich threw for 218 yards and one score while adding another touchdown on a run against the Texans in week nine.

Running Backs: Greg Jones left the game with a neck stinger last week and he'll be evaluated to determine his availability for this week. Early word has it likely that Jones will play though he may be held out of some practices.

Taylor only gained 48 yards on 12 carries against the Texans this year while Greg Jones had seven runs for 27 yards and one touchdown. Taylor was injured in that game and did not play the following week.

Wide Receivers: No changes here. Garrard has killed the production of Ernest Wilford and Matt Jones while relying almost entirely on Jimmy Smith who has either scored and or gained more than 70 yards in every game since week ten. Going against the soft 49ers secondary last week, Smith had 70 yards on six catches but Jones (2-11) and Wilford (2-28) had no impact. Reggie Williams turned in four catches for 65 yards which was actually his best game of the season. But it is not a signal anything is changing.

Wilford had 89 yards and a score against the Texans this year while Jimmy Smith had 52 yards.

Tight Ends: Just blockers now.

Match Against the Defense: The Texans have one of the softer rush defenses and this week they have to worry about Garrard taking off as well. Look for Taylor to turn in moderate numbers here with a shot at one score but likely that will only happen if the banger Jones plays. If Jones doesn't play, then Garrard could amazingly score yet again on a run.

The Texans secondary has never failed to allow at least one passing score if not up to three in every game in Houston. Look for only moderate yardage here by Garrard who doesn't pass that well and the score reasonably has to go to Jimmy Smith because no other wideout really matters.

Houston Texans (2-12)
1 7-22 @BUF 10 17-31 @IND
2 7-27 PIT 11 17-45 KCC
3 Open Bye 12 27-33 STL
4 10-16 @CIN 13 15-16 @BAL
5 20-34 TEN 14 10-13 @TEN
6 10-42 @SEA 15 30-19 ARI
7 20-38 IND 16 Dec 24 JAC
8 19-16 CLE 17 Jan 1 @SFO
9 14-21 @JAC . . SAT
HOU vs JAX Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 180,1
RB Vernand Morency 20 10 0
RB Jonathan Wells 50 10 0
TE Marcellus Rivers 0 20 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 70 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 40,1 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 30 0
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Texans cannot even lose when it benefits them. The win over the Cardinals last week now casts week 17 in San Francisco as the Reggie Bush Bowl and since the Texans are 0-7 on the road, there is still a nice chance they get that first pick in the NFL draft.

Quarterback: David Carr threw for 219 yards and one score in Jacksonville this year and that was his second best game of the year. He only has one score in the last three games and has not thrown for more than165 yards in that time. Carr had an unusually good game in week nine because he suddenly started throwing to Andre Johnson again.

Running Backs: Domanick Davis was held out last week because of swelling in his knee and he is already expected to be held out of practice this week and be a game time decision. I am projecting for just Wells and Morency.

Jonathan Wells scored tow touchdowns last week as the starter but he only gained 87 yards on 28 carries against the Cardinals. Vernand Morency pitched in a score as well and gained 32 yards on five carries. Assumedly the duo will share carries again this week but with far lesser results against the Jaguars defense.

Davis did not play in the previous match-up with the Jaguars and in his place, Jonathon Wells ran for 56 yards and one score with Vernand Morency adding 24 more yards. Wells also had five catches for 45 yards.

Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson comes off a seven catch, 51 yard game against the Cardinals and that's been around average for him since his rebirth in week nine. Andre Johnson reeled in nine catches for 91 yards in Jacksonville this year while Bradford had 71 yards and the lone touchdown pass. No chance that the Jaguars are surprised by Johnson this time since he had no catches in the game previous to week nine.

Tight Ends: Marcellus Rivers has been hanging around 20 yards per game for the last three weeks.

Match Against the Defense: The Texans have been struggling to post points in any game against a decent defense which the Jaguars are definitely bringing. Look for low rushing yardage in this game with much less time to run than last week. Davis could add some spice if he returns, but that is not looking good.

Carr has been turning in sub-200 yard games almost every week this year and that matches up well with what the Jags allow. Look for one score to go to a wideout and likely not Johnson who will get much more attention this week.